Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

20.8%

+381

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 107

2+ RBI

15.4%

+548

RBI 1+

38.4%

+160

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

26.0%

95% CI · 25.5–26.5%

+284

Fair odds

1st AB

7.0%

Through AB2

14.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+7%
vs SP-2%
Contact+14%
SP Contact+15%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0423 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park+7% (×1.07)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+380

High

+875

Low

+330

Med

+645

Avg

+593

🐾+380

Low +330🐾 HR money zoneHigh +875

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.3

Proj PA

248

HR / PA

.045

ISO

.209

wOBA

.328

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

40.3

FB%

44.2

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

11.4

GB%

38.1

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

40.0

FB%

44.1

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

14.3

GB%

44.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

40.4

FB%

44.2

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

10.5

GB%

36.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

40.8

FB%

42.3

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

9.9

GB%

35.2

Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

39.7

FB%

46.1

Pull%

44.9

Soft%

12.8

GB%

40.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Target Field mild HR boost (+7)
13.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.068 OPS over last 15 days
Elite barrel% (13.4)
High barrels/PA (9.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.306↑ vs season .25051 PA · 15d

OPS

1.068

ISO

.429

RBI

K-BB

10-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs STL	3	1	1	3	1	0	1.333
06-11	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ DET	2	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	@ DET	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 346ft · 94.7 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	vs KC	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-06	vs KC	4	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-05	vs KC	4	2	0	0	0	1	.750
06-04	vs KC	4	2	2	2	0	0	2.000
💣 379ft · 101.7 EV · Sweeper💣 414ft · 101.4 EV · Curveball

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL14PA	.307	.437	10.0	70.0	50	33.3
🐾SLSlidervL6PA	.500	.400	16.7	33.3	67	12.5
🐾CUCurveball23PA	.381	.309	9.1	38.5	55	29.7
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.167	.328	6.2	50.0	75	31.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.307	.437	10.0	70.0	50	33.3	98	14
vs RHP	.196	.266	7.7	41.0	46	20.7	122	60

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.500	.400	16.7	33.3	67	12.5	98	6
vs RHP	.346	.353	23.5	64.7	53	28.4	122	27

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.278	.275	9.1	36.4	55	32.4	122	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.191	.328	6.2	43.8	75	32.4	122	21

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

107

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Clemens.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3#5#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.229

Barrel %

13.4

Hard Hit %

43.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.332

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

9.20

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.4°

Brl / PA %

9.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.437
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
70.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.400
Whiff%
12.5
HH%
33.3
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.309
Whiff%
29.7
HH%
38.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
55

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .488). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

FCCutter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP175PA	.255	.503	.825	12.7%	8
🐾vs LHP46PA	.191	.429	.718	16.2%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home111PA	.232	.505	.856	14.3%	5
Away110PA	.250	.470	.748	12.8%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day109PA	.160	.410	.716	16.3%	2
Night112PA	.324	.566	.890	10.4%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty82PA	.250	.421	.653	5
Runners On94PA	.181	.458	.806	2
RISP54PA	.245	.489	.835	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs71PA	.306	.661	1.081	3
1 Out77PA	.171	.314	.535	3
2 Outs73PA	.253	.507	.822	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-030PA	.393	.714	1.014	3
1-015PA	.400	.667	.933	1
0-117PA	.312	.500	.735	1
2-02PA	—	—	—	0
0-222PA	.050	.200	.427	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-226PA	.154	.346	.538	1
2-240PA	.211	.474	.774	2
3-233PA	.104	.276	.549	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.