Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.7%

+434

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

14.3%

+599

RBI 1+

37.4%

+168

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.1%

95% CI · 24.6–25.5%

+299

Fair odds

1st AB

7.1%

Through AB2

13.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+21%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+22%
SP Statcast+2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0436 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+21% (×1.21)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+535

High

+760

Low

+285

Med

+535

Avg

+508

+535

Low +285High +760

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.9

Proj PA

194

HR / PA

.051

ISO

.227

wOBA

.334

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

43.9

FB%

43.4

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

10.4

GB%

39.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

42.0

FB%

40.8

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

16.0

GB%

49.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

17.7

Hard%

44.4

FB%

44.1

Pull%

45.6

Soft%

8.9

GB%

36.3

Home

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

45.0

FB%

40.5

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

9.0

GB%

38.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

42.9

FB%

46.2

Pull%

47.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

13.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.118 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (13.3)
High barrels/PA (9.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .25647 PA · 15d

OPS

1.118

ISO

.423

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	4	2	1	3	1	0	1.500
💣 367ft · 104.9 EV · Changeup
06-15	@ TEX	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-14	vs STL	4	2	0	0	0	0	.500
06-13	vs STL	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-12	vs STL	3	1	1	3	1	0	1.333
💣 385ft · 102.4 EV · Splitter
06-11	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ DET	2	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	@ DET	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 346ft · 94.7 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball71PA	.229	.293	8.0	43.5	48	27.5
🐾SLSlider33PA	.375	.367	20.8	60.9	58	23.5
🐾CHChangeup27PA	.230	.397	8.7	52.4	74	27.5
🐾FCCutter12PA	.091	.394	36.4	25.0	64	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.285	.406	9.1	63.6	55	31.8	88	15
vs RHP	.196	.265	7.7	41.0	46	21.7	131	60

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.428	.420	14.3	42.9	71	10.5	88	7
vs RHP	.346	.353	23.5	64.7	53	26.5	131	27

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.250	.399	9.1	45.5	73	29.3	131	29

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.300	.384	22.2	22.2	67	13.6	131	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Clemens.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed1 of 5 HRs · 20%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3#5#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.242

Barrel %

13.3

Hard Hit %

44.0

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.337

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

9.20

Max EV (mph)

108.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

106.3

Avg EV on HRs

103.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.4°

Brl / PA %

9.20

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.293
Whiff%
27.5
HH%
43.5
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
48
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
23.5
HH%
60.9
BRL%
20.8
Pull%
58
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.397
Whiff%
27.5
HH%
52.4
BRL%
8.7
Pull%
74
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Jack Leiter

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .488). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

FCCutter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 10 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP184PA	.266	.521	.849	13.2%	9
vs LHP54PA	.160	.400	.683	13.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home119PA	.215	.495	.848	13.8%	5
🐾Away119PA	.269	.491	.773	12.9%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day117PA	.148	.407	.717	15.1%	2
Night121PA	.336	.579	.904	11.5%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty87PA	.235	.395	.613	5
Runners On104PA	.196	.489	.852	3
RISP62PA	.269	.538	.905	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.338	.691	1.104	4
1 Out84PA	.158	.316	.554	3
2 Outs77PA	.239	.493	.805	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.