Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.5%

+703

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Casey Mize (RHP) (0.38 HR/9) · park 115

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.8%

+822

RBI 1+

34.2%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.0%

95% CI · 8.7–9.4%

+1007

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+15%
vs SP-9%
Lineup+3%
Contact-7%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast-11%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Casey Mize (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 115)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0258 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park+15% (×1.15)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 7 games

Now

+705

High

+1275

Low

+585

Med

+725

Avg

+851

+705

Low +585High +1275

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.2

Proj PA

342

HR / PA

.027

ISO

.155

wOBA

.334

wRC+

112

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

33.3

FB%

36.8

Pull%

49.6

Soft%

16.2

GB%

43.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

54.5

FB%

40.9

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

13.6

GB%

36.4

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

28.4

FB%

35.8

Pull%

49.5

Soft%

16.8

GB%

45.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

29.5

FB%

29.5

Pull%

52.3

Soft%

15.9

GB%

50.0

Away

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

35.6

FB%

41.1

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

16.4

GB%

39.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Daikin Park is a hitter's haven (+15 for RHB)
Casey Mize stingy: only 0.38 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (67% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .726 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (115)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.38 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.275↑ vs season .25059 PA · 15d

OPS

.726

ISO

.078

RBI

K-BB

7-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs DET	5	2	1	0	1	.600
06-15	vs DET	5	1	0	0	2	.200
06-14	@ KC	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ KC	5	1	0	0	0	.200
06-12	@ KC	3	1	0	2	0	.333
06-10	@ LAA	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	@ LAA	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-08	@ LAA	3	0	0	2	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR22PA	.112	.399	0.0	26.7	47	10.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlidervR24PA	.047	.285	0.0	21.1	84	33.9
🐾SISinkervR30PA	.037	.357	0.0	37.0	74	4.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.528	20.0	50.0	40	9.5	156	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.112	.399	0.0	26.7	47	10.0	93	22

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.047	.285	0.0	21.1	84	33.9	93	24

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.037	.357	0.0	37.0	74	4.2	93	30

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

115

vs SHB

102

Daikin Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Peña.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected14 of 21 HRs · 67%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 14 of 21 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Casey Mize · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.399
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
26.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FSSplit-Finger
Use%
27
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
33.9
HH%
21.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
84

Career vs Casey Mize (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Casey Mize (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.3	8.3	32.4	44	.285	17.8
FSSplit-Finger	26.7	2.4	23.5	78	.207	24.1
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	25.1	11.5	45.8	58	.253	36.4
SISinker	10.2	7.7	34.8	62	.295	27.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	2.6	25.6	41	.243	15.8	53
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	55.6	56	.403	25.0	18

FSSplit-Finger27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.0	15.2	76	.165	31.7	54
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	88	.402	18.5	15

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	46.7	67	.213	23.8	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	36.4	46	.298	50.0	19

SISinker10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	62	.296	23.1	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 36.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .504). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP128PA	.096	.357	.685	3.2%	2
vs LHP31PA	.215	.536	.923	9.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home62PA	.120	.448	.819	4.5%	1
Away97PA	.118	.353	.673	4.1%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day53PA	.117	.333	.578	5.4%	1
Night106PA	.120	.424	.811	3.8%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty41PA	.098	.293	.488	1
Runners On51PA	.119	.381	.754	1
RISP34PA	.037	.222	.546	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs80PA	.113	.437	.825	1
1 Out38PA	.171	.400	.689	1
2 Outs41PA	.081	.297	.590	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Wed.