Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

16.4%

+510

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Leahy (RHP) (1.27 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

13.0%

+668

RBI 1+

36.2%

+176

Hits 1+

69.0%

-223

Hits 2+

27.3%

+267

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.0%

95% CI · 14.6–15.4%

+565

Fair odds

1st AB

3.9%

Through AB2

7.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
Lineup+3%
Contact-16%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast+15%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Leahy (RHP)

·22 mph wind out to OF
·90F game
·Big bats hitting behind
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0369 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind+17% (×1.17)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-16% (×0.84)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+15% (×1.15)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 17 games

Now

+510

High

+2700

Low

+380

Med

+675

Avg

+1051

+510

Low +380High +2700

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.0

Proj PA

388

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.198

wOBA

.364

wRC+

136

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.5

Hard%

38.4

FB%

27.3

Pull%

31.8

Soft%

16.1

GB%

50.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

35.9

FB%

15.8

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

44.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

2.0

Hard%

39.0

FB%

29.8

Pull%

31.4

Soft%

15.7

GB%

51.5

Home

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

38.4

FB%

24.3

Pull%

29.5

Soft%

17.9

GB%

49.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

38.4

FB%

30.6

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

14.1

GB%

51.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Busch Stadium suppresses HRs (92)
52.6% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (51% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
22 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (7.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (12.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.327↑ vs season .28360 PA · 15d

OPS

.822

ISO

.128

RBI

K-BB

11-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-15	@ STL	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	@ BAL	4	2	0	2	0	0	.500
06-13	@ BAL	4	1	0	0	1	3	.500
06-12	@ BAL	5	1	0	1	0	0	.200
06-10	vs CIN	5	2	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 360ft · 106.3 EV · Slider
06-09	vs CIN	6	4	0	0	0	0	.833
06-08	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	vs NYM	4	1	0	0	1	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR62PA	.057	.361	15.8	68.4	34	19.8
🐾CUCurveballvR5PA	—	.303	25.0	25.0	75	33.3
🐾SLSlidervR37PA	.096	.342	15.0	50.0	60	39.1
🐾SISinkervR78PA	.030	.371	6.5	56.5	47	13.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.158	.443	7.1	21.4	50	15.4	162	22
vs RHPTONIGHT	.057	.361	15.8	68.4	34	19.8	84	62

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.303	25.0	25.0	75	33.3	84	5

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.200	0.0	25.0	50	33.3	162	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.096	.342	15.0	50.0	60	39.1	84	37

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.375	.384	14.3	57.1	71	23.8	162	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.030	.371	6.5	56.5	47	13.2	84	78

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Busch Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected25 of 49 HRs · 51%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 25 of 49 career HRs (51%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.067

Barrel %

10.4

Hard Hit %

52.6

xwOBA

.348

xBA

.283

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

114.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.0

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

7.20

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Leahy · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.361
Whiff%
19.8
HH%
68.4
BRL%
15.8
Pull%
34
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.303
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
25.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
75
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.342
Whiff%
39.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
15.0
Pull%
60

Career vs Kyle Leahy (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Kyle Leahy (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.9	16.4	66.7	51	.455	17.2
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.8	7.4	60.0	82	.288	20.7
SLSlider	15.8	12.1	40.6	61	.375	13.3
SISinker	13.5	4.3	44.2	54	.417	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.3	65.1	49	.474	17.5	57
vs RHB	16.7	55.6	56	.402	13.0	22

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	60.0	75	.292	22.7	33
vs RHB	0.0	42.9	100	.270	11.1	9

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	35.7	86	.428	0.0	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.8	42.1	42	.334	28.6	23

SISinker14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	80.0	80	.537	27.3	14
vs RHB	2.8	33.3	47	.380	13.6	52

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 20.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .503). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 40 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP244PA	.042	.304	.633	11.0%	1
vs LHP61PA	.164	.509	.919	7.5%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home157PA	.076	.414	.831	11.4%	1
🐾Away148PA	.058	.279	.549	9.1%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day129PA	.096	.348	.658	12.2%	2
Night176PA	.045	.344	.715	8.9%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty104PA	.144	.433	.770	2
Runners On109PA	.022	.337	.707	0
RISP55PA	—	.357	.764	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs119PA	.019	.221	.509	0
1 Out108PA	.109	.457	.864	1
2 Outs78PA	.083	.384	.730	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Wed.