Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.9%

+815

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cam Schlittler (RHP) (0.44 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

10.0%

+899

RBI 1+

33.5%

+199

Hits 1+

71.2%

-247

Hits 2+

30.0%

+234

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.0%

95% CI · 11.6–12.4%

+734

Fair odds

1st AB

2.7%

Through AB2

5.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Wind+5%
vs SP-18%
Contact-17%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast-1%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cam Schlittler (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·11 mph wind out to OF
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0381 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-18% (×0.82) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind+5% (×1.05)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+815

High

+1085

Low

+435

Med

+615

Avg

+651

+815

Low +435High +1085

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

15.1

Proj PA

389

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.191

wOBA

.377

wRC+

141

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

36.6

FB%

31.9

Pull%

38.4

Soft%

17.1

GB%

48.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

41.9

FB%

41.9

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

14.0

GB%

41.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

2.0

Hard%

35.3

FB%

29.5

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

50.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

25.0

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

17.6

GB%

50.9

Away

HR/FB

6.8

Hard%

35.7

FB%

39.3

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

17.9

GB%

46.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Rogers Centre is a hitter's haven (+17 for RHB)
Cam Schlittler stingy: only 0.44 HR/9
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (76% of career HRs)
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (4.9%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.44 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250↓ vs season .29857 PA · 15d

OPS

.644

ISO

.096

RBI

K-BB

6-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs NYY	5	1	1	0	1	.400
06-10	vs PHI	3	1	1	2	0	.333
06-09	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-08	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs BAL	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-05	vs BAL	3	0	1	0	0	—
06-04	@ ATL	5	3	0	0	0	.800

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR39PA	.176	.403	10.7	60.7	32	18.9
🐾FCCuttervR20PA	.187	.330	14.3	42.9	71	25.0
🐾SISinkervR67PA	.033	.335	5.1	49.2	59	6.1
🐾CUCurveballvR6PA	—	.486	0.0	25.0	75	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.111	.351	0.0	20.0	20	10.3	166	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.176	.403	10.7	60.7	32	18.9	94	39

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.708	33.3	66.7	67	42.9	166	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.187	.330	14.3	42.9	71	25.0	94	20

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.125	.406	0.0	50.0	50	10.0	166	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.033	.335	5.1	49.2	59	6.1	94	67

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.486	0.0	25.0	75	28.6	94	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

117

vs SHB

112

Rogers Centre. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 48 of 63 career HRs (76%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.086

Barrel %

6.5

Hard Hit %

44.9

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.354

xBA

.298

Brl / PA %

4.90

Max EV (mph)

116.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

412

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

4.90

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cam Schlittler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
45
xwOBA
.403
Whiff%
18.9
HH%
60.7
BRL%
10.7
Pull%
32
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.330
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
42.9
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
71
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.335
Whiff%
6.1
HH%
49.2
BRL%
5.1
Pull%
59

Career vs Cam Schlittler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.800AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

1.600

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Cam Schlittler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.9	5.3	44.4	36	.226	22.9
FCCutter	26.6	6.9	41.8	63	.309	16.3
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.1	5.3	36.4	54	.253	24.7
CUCurveball	7.1	12.5	46.7	63	.343	17.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball45% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.7	53.8	35	.267	21.1	88
vs RHB	0.0	26.1	39	.134	25.5	37

FCCutter27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	41.3	65	.311	13.0	59
vs RHB	11.5	46.2	58	.304	20.7	32

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	4.8	47.6	33	.253	22.9	34
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	27.8	67	.254	26.1	51

CUCurveball7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.5	43.8	63	.359	13.2	22
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .462). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TOR)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Rogers Centre (328/400/328 ft) · elev 269ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP224PA	.066	.338	.691	6.7%	1
vs LHP64PA	.157	.471	.909	8.9%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home149PA	.050	.333	.742	8.2%	0
Away139PA	.119	.397	.728	6.1%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day125PA	.092	.422	.838	8.7%	2
Night163PA	.080	.321	.658	5.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.060	.277	.578	1
Runners On133PA	.123	.406	.804	2
RISP64PA	.065	.348	.770	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs99PA	.091	.443	.867	1
1 Out88PA	.126	.394	.758	2
2 Outs101PA	.046	.264	.591	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-044PA	.171	.439	.734	1
1-026PA	.192	.538	.885	1
0-131PA	.178	.607	1.059	1
2-08PA	—	.375	.750	0
0-223PA	.136	.318	.492	1
3-012PA	—	—	.833	0
1-232PA	—	.250	.500	0
2-232PA	.065	.452	.827	0
3-237PA	—	.105	.646	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.