Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.3%

+1111

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 85

Batting #2Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1070

RBI 1+

32.1%

+211

Hits 1+

70.5%

-239

Hits 2+

29.1%

+244

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.9%

95% CI · 10.6–11.3%

+815

Fair odds

1st AB

2.6%

Through AB2

5.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Lineup+3%
Contact-9%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast-3%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0378 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-3% (×0.97)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1115

High

+2605

Low

+395

Med

+715

Avg

+885

+1115

Low +395High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.6

Proj PA

288

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.195

wOBA

.374

wRC+

141

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.6

Hard%

35.7

FB%

31.3

Pull%

40.2

Soft%

16.8

GB%

49.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

42.4

FB%

37.3

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

11.9

GB%

49.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.8

Hard%

34.1

FB%

29.7

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

18.1

GB%

49.1

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

37.4

FB%

23.7

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

15.1

GB%

51.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

34.2

FB%

38.2

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

18.4

GB%

46.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Fenway Park suppresses HRs (85)
Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (76% of career HRs)
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (85)
High barrels/PA (4.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.190↓ vs season .29347 PA · 15d

OPS

.493

ISO

.048

RBI

K-BB

6-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	4	2	2	0	0	.500
06-16	@ BOS	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs NYY	5	1	1	0	1	.400
06-10	vs PHI	3	1	1	2	0	.333
06-09	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-08	vs PHI	4	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	vs BAL	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs BAL	3	0	0	1	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball51PA	.162	.371	7.7	48.6	31	17.5
🐾FCCutter25PA	.150	.415	16.7	41.2	72	28.9
🐾STSweeper29PA	.077	.362	22.7	45.5	68	23.8
🐾CUCurveball17PA	—	.429	0.0	63.6	63	29.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.091	.308	0.0	18.2	27	9.4	141	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.172	.393	10.7	60.7	32	18.9	95	40

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.636	25.0	50.0	75	44.4	141	7
vs RHP	.187	.330	14.3	42.9	71	24.3	95	20

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.480	40.0	80.0	60	27.3	141	9
vs RHP	.105	.318	17.6	35.3	71	16.1	95	21

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.429	0.0	75.0	50	0.0	141	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.486	0.0	25.0	75	28.6	95	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

102

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Confirmed15 of 63 HRs · 24%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 48 of 63 career HRs (76%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.082

Barrel %

6.2

Hard Hit %

44.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.348

xBA

.293

Brl / PA %

4.70

Max EV (mph)

116.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

105.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

412

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/4

Avg LA on HRs

25.5°

Brl / PA %

4.70

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.371
Whiff%
17.5
HH%
48.6
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
31
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.415
Whiff%
28.9
HH%
41.2
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
72
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.362
Whiff%
23.8
HH%
45.5
BRL%
22.7
Pull%
68

Career vs Sonny Gray

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (6 PA)

OPS

.167

RBI

K-BB

2-1

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .462). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP226PA	.066	.340	.694	6.6%	1
vs LHP70PA	.141	.439	.853	7.7%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home149PA	.050	.333	.742	7.9%	0
🐾Away147PA	.112	.388	.715	5.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day125PA	.092	.422	.838	8.7%	2
Night171PA	.076	.317	.650	5.3%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty96PA	.058	.279	.581	1
Runners On137PA	.118	.400	.794	2
RISP67PA	.061	.347	.765	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs100PA	.090	.438	.858	1
1 Out93PA	.119	.395	.761	2
2 Outs103PA	.045	.258	.578	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.