Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

27.2%

+268

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #3Projected lineup

2+ RBI

18.9%

+428

RBI 1+

41.6%

+140

Hits 1+

71.9%

-256

Hits 2+

30.9%

+224

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

47.1%

95% CI · 46.6–47.7%

+112

Fair odds

1st AB

15.6%

Through AB2

28.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact+16%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0576 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+395

High

+1100

Low

+255

Med

+485

Avg

+485

+395

Low +255High +1100

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

18.4

Proj PA

277

HR / PA

.067

ISO

.296

wOBA

.422

wRC+

173

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.6

Hard%

43.4

FB%

43.8

Pull%

43.0

Soft%

11.9

GB%

38.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

40.2

FB%

41.4

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

14.9

GB%

39.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

25.8

Hard%

45.3

FB%

45.2

Pull%

43.9

Soft%

10.1

GB%

38.4

Home

HR/FB

21.2

Hard%

46.2

FB%

44.1

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

8.4

GB%

37.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

40.5

FB%

43.5

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

15.5

GB%

40.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Elite power: .258 ISO
15.3% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (CU, FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (81% of career HRs)
Already has 3 HR / 6 RBI off this SP in 56 PA
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
Elite barrel% (15.3)
High barrels/PA (11.0%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.298↓ vs season .30357 PA · 15d

OPS

.910

ISO

.191

RBI

K-BB

5-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	5	3	0	2	0	0	.800
06-16	@ CIN	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-15	@ CIN	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-14	vs ATL	3	2	0	2	2	0	.667
06-13	vs ATL	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-12	vs ATL	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 382ft · 109.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-11	vs STL	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.500
💣 398ft · 101.2 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs STL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR9PA	.375	.387	20.0	20.0	60	31.2
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR48PA	.488	.580	25.6	48.7	62	10.5
🐾SISinkervR31PA	.167	.442	18.2	59.1	50	19.1
🐾CHChangeupvR22PA	.182	.397	9.1	50.0	77	3.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.600	.378	0.0	40.0	80	14.3	135	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	.375	.387	20.0	20.0	60	31.2	175	9

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.310	12.5	50.0	56	20.0	135	23
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.488	.580	25.6	48.7	62	10.5	175	48

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.329	12.5	50.0	63	10.5	135	19
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.167	.442	18.2	59.1	50	19.1	175	31

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.182	.397	9.1	50.0	77	3.1	175	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Soto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Projected17 of 88 HRs · 19%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 71 of 88 career HRs (81%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.258

Barrel %

15.3

Hard Hit %

49.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.421

xBA

.303

Brl / PA %

11.00

Max EV (mph)

114.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

11.00

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.387
Whiff%
31.2
HH%
20.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.580
Whiff%
10.5
HH%
48.7
BRL%
25.6
Pull%
62
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.442
Whiff%
19.1
HH%
59.1
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.225AVG · meaningful (56 PA)

OPS

.946

RBI

K-BB

11-16

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .634). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP162PA	.284	.590	1.010	17.5%	11
vs LHP83PA	.213	.493	.834	11.1%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home121PA	.313	.686	1.153	19.4%	9
🐾Away124PA	.206	.430	.753	11.1%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day107PA	.206	.489	.872	10.7%	4
Night138PA	.299	.607	1.008	19.2%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.329	.647	1.030	8
Runners On106PA	.171	.476	.924	4
RISP59PA	.096	.310	.724	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs77PA	.194	.463	.814	3
1 Out92PA	.171	.512	.925	3
2 Outs76PA	.450	.717	1.130	9

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.