Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

17.0%

+490

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 99

2+ RBI

13.3%

+650

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

70.5%

-239

Hits 2+

29.1%

+244

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

34.9%

95% CI · 34.3–35.4%

+187

Fair odds

1st AB

9.6%

Through AB2

18.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-1%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact+26%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+25%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0585 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park-1% (×0.99)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+26% (×1.26)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+25% (×1.25)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+490

High

+655

Low

+265

Med

+435

Avg

+445

+490

Low +265High +655

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

24.4

Proj PA

391

HR / PA

.062

ISO

.280

wOBA

.415

wRC+

170

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

45.3

FB%

44.3

Pull%

44.0

Soft%

11.3

GB%

41.8

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

16.0

Hard%

41.1

FB%

44.6

Pull%

46.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

44.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

47.6

FB%

44.1

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

9.7

GB%

40.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

24.2

Hard%

52.5

FB%

41.3

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

6.3

GB%

41.3

Away

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

38.0

FB%

47.4

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

16.5

GB%

42.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Elite power: .260 ISO
16.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (81% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Elite barrel% (16.4)
High barrels/PA (11.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.229↓ vs season .29355 PA · 15d

OPS

.765

ISO

.209

RBI

K-BB

5-7

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
06-11	vs STL	4	2	1	1	0	0	1.500
💣 398ft · 101.2 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs STL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-09	vs STL	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-07	@ SD	3	0	0	1	2	0	—
06-06	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ SEA	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.166	.357	11.1	50.0	78	6.7
🐾SISinkervL17PA	—	.355	14.3	50.0	57	12.1
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveballvL4PA	.750	.249	0.0	50.0	100	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.177	.347	11.8	47.1	77	3.7	160	17

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.355	14.3	50.0	57	12.1	131	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.182	.475	18.2	59.1	50	15.6	160	29

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.750	.249	0.0	50.0	100	16.7	131	4
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.375	.342	20.0	20.0	60	35.7	160	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Soto.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 71 of 88 career HRs (81%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.260

Barrel %

16.4

Hard Hit %

49.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.413

xBA

.293

Brl / PA %

11.90

Max EV (mph)

114.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Avg EV on HRs

105.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/7

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

11.90

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
6.7
HH%
50.0
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
78
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.355
Whiff%
12.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
57
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.167

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .634). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 6vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP147PA	.292	.585	.986	18.3%	11
🐾vs LHP75PA	.235	.500	.824	12.5%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home112PA	.326	.684	1.134	20.5%	9
Away110PA	.219	.427	.727	12.2%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day93PA	.212	.450	.794	12.5%	4
Night129PA	.316	.631	1.029	19.4%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.342	.659	1.030	8
Runners On90PA	.188	.478	.916	4
RISP51PA	.112	.306	.706	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs71PA	.193	.435	.759	3
1 Out81PA	.179	.521	.928	3
2 Outs70PA	.482	.732	1.123	9

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.143	.357	.571	1
1-016PA	.563	.938	1.312	2
0-110PA	.100	.500	.900	0
2-07PA	.428	.857	1.286	1
0-212PA	.250	.500	.750	1
3-010PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
1-229PA	.103	.241	.379	1
2-226PA	.115	.346	.577	1
3-233PA	.136	.318	.773	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.