Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.2%

+992

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

9.0%

+1007

RBI 1+

32.6%

+207

Hits 1+

60.9%

-156

Hits 2+

18.8%

+432

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

116wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

65wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.6%

95% CI · 6.3–6.9%

+1417

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact-8%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-14%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0220 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-14% (×0.86)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+820

High

+2605

Low

+565

Med

+762

Avg

+889

+820

Low +565High +2605

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.0

Proj PA

101

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.150

wOBA

.300

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

5.5

Hard%

22.2

FB%

41.7

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

15.3

GB%

40.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.3

Hard%

7.3

FB%

38.8

Pull%

29.1

Soft%

18.2

GB%

46.9

vs RHP

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

28.4

FB%

42.9

Pull%

38.1

Soft%

14.2

GB%

37.3

Home

HR/FB

4.7

Hard%

21.8

FB%

43.0

Pull%

35.5

Soft%

12.7

GB%

39.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

22.8

FB%

40.0

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

19.0

GB%

41.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.186↓ vs season .23447 PA · 15d

OPS

.519

ISO

.116

RBI

K-BB

12-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	4	1	1	0	2	.750
06-16	@ SEA	3	0	0	0	3	—
06-14	vs SD	3	1	0	0	0	.333
06-13	vs SD	4	1	1	0	2	.750
06-11	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs SEA	3	2	1	1	1	1.000
06-09	vs SEA	4	1	2	0	1	.250
06-08	vs SEA	4	1	0	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball77PA	.065	.296	9.3	38.0	52	22.7
🐾SISinker30PA	.208	.470	4.8	38.1	67	19.6
🐾STSweeper10PA	.111	.205	0.0	—	29	39.1
🐾SLSlider27PA	.174	.282	0.0	25.0	56	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.344	8.3	25.0	33	16.2	65	22
vs RHP	.132	.279	9.5	45.2	57	21.2	116	64

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.478	0.0	28.6	43	8.3	65	10
vs RHP	.278	.467	7.1	42.9	79	22.9	116	20

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.125	.225	0.0	0.0	33	35.0	116	9

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.100	.158	0.0	16.7	33	30.0	65	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.188	.328	0.0	25.0	67	16.7	116	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Taveras.

Season Statcast

ISO

.120

Barrel %

4.0

Hard Hit %

29.5

xwOBA

.297

xBA

.234

Brl / PA %

2.70

Max EV (mph)

110.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

397

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.7°

Brl / PA %

2.70

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.296
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
38.0
BRL%
9.3
Pull%
52
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.470
Whiff%
19.6
HH%
38.1
BRL%
4.8
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.205
Whiff%
39.1
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
29

Career vs Bryan Woo

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.250AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

1.400

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .403). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SISinker1

CUCurveball1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP161PA	.158	.429	.773	6.0%	2
vs LHP63PA	.019	.231	.548	2.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home131PA	.107	.384	.733	4.2%	0
🐾Away93PA	.138	.363	.682	6.7%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day94PA	.128	.423	.798	3.2%	0
Night130PA	.114	.342	.652	6.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty73PA	.090	.348	.677	1
Runners On100PA	.185	.494	.881	1
RISP59PA	.174	.522	.948	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs86PA	.097	.333	.646	1
1 Out67PA	.123	.404	.768	1
2 Outs71PA	.143	.397	.735	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.