Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+682

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Burke (1.11 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #5Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.0%

+807

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

57.0%

-132

Hits 2+

15.4%

+548

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.8%

95% CI · 25.3–26.3%

+288

Fair odds

1st AB

7.6%

Through AB2

14.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+13%
Contact+18%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0447 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+13% (×1.13) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+305

High

+1135

Low

+305

Med

+520

Avg

+589

+305

Low +305High +1135

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.8

Proj PA

254

HR / PA

.051

ISO

.220

wOBA

.336

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.9

Hard%

35.0

FB%

41.4

Pull%

56.2

Soft%

12.0

GB%

41.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.1

Hard%

33.8

FB%

48.5

Pull%

52.1

Soft%

12.7

GB%

33.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

35.6

FB%

38.0

Pull%

58.2

Soft%

11.6

GB%

45.1

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.2

Hard%

32.2

FB%

42.0

Pull%

60.0

Soft%

12.2

GB%

44.3

Away

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

37.0

FB%

41.0

Pull%

53.5

Soft%

11.8

GB%

39.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (34% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .858 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
High barrels/PA (5.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.175↓ vs season .21351 PA · 15d

OPS

.858

ISO

.350

RBI

K-BB

16-10

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CHW	5	1	1	1	0	2	.800
💣 398ft · 100.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-16	vs CHW	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-14	@ TOR	0	0	0	0	3	0	—
06-13	@ TOR	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-12	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	1	2	.250
06-10	@ CLE	4	1	0	3	1	1	.750
06-09	@ CLE	3	1	1	1	1	1	1.333
💣 360ft · 107.3 EV · Slider
06-08	@ CLE	4	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball87PA	.160	.293	7.4	38.5	59	23.3
🐾CUCurveball37PA	.028	.190	0.0	44.4	81	47.6
🐾SLSlider45PA	.275	.294	10.7	42.9	68	36.5
🐾SISinker34PA	.276	.413	6.7	45.8	73	22.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.239	.279	9.1	45.5	55	35.0	102	24
vs RHP	.119	.298	7.0	34.9	61	15.8	103	67

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.036	.174	0.0	46.7	80	44.4	103	28

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.182	.209	6.7	46.7	73	37.2	102	22
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.389	.380	15.4	38.5	62	37.5	103	23

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.200	.339	6.2	50.0	69	20.0	102	22
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.333	.517	7.1	42.9	79	14.8	103	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Confirmed13 of 38 HRs · 34%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 13 of 38 career HRs (34%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#4#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.177

Barrel %

8.8

Hard Hit %

40.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.300

xBA

.213

Brl / PA %

5.30

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Avg EV on HRs

104.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

377

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/5

Avg LA on HRs

32.6°

Brl / PA %

5.30

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Burke · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.293
Whiff%
23.3
HH%
38.5
BRL%
7.4
Pull%
59
CUCurveball
Use%
22
xwOBA
.190
Whiff%
47.6
HH%
44.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
81
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 37 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
17
xwOBA
.294
Whiff%
36.5
HH%
42.9
BRL%
10.7
Pull%
68

Sean Burke arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	36.9	11.8	37.3	48	.305	19.5
CUCurveball	21.7	—	40.5	—	.292	19.1
SLSlider	17.1	5.6	32.4	69	.290	17.4
SISinker	16.0	2.3	34.9	51	.333	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.9	40.7	58	.362	17.5	92
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	38.2	32	.219	22.8	64

SLSlider17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	37.5	50	.284	21.7	17
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	75	.295	14.8	38

SISinker16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	50.0	50	.358	19.0	24
vs RHB	0.0	25.9	52	.317	10.5	33

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .458). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP195PA	.173	.393	.716	9.8%	7
vs LHP89PA	.185	.432	.735	5.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home128PA	.173	.382	.687	9.1%	5
Away156PA	.179	.424	.751	7.8%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day95PA	.141	.372	.719	8.1%	1
🐾Night189PA	.193	.421	.723	8.5%	9

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.138	.388	.714	2
Runners On118PA	.148	.356	.661	2
RISP79PA	.171	.357	.610	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.223	.456	.776	6
1 Out86PA	.120	.400	.760	1
2 Outs95PA	.178	.357	.631	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.