Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.1%

+1137

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sonny Gray (0.87 HR/9) · park 102

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1084

RBI 1+

32.0%

+212

Hits 1+

59.0%

-144

Hits 2+

17.2%

+482

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.8%

95% CI · 7.5–8.1%

+1176

Fair odds

1st AB

2.0%

Through AB2

3.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+2%
Wind+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+5%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·19 mph wind out to OF
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0217 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+2% (×1.02)

Wind+14% (×1.14)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1000

High

+2000

Low

+790

Med

+1005

Avg

+1033

+1000

Low +790High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.6

Proj PA

247

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.114

wOBA

.292

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

27.8

FB%

33.0

Pull%

41.5

Soft%

14.5

GB%

47.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

23.4

FB%

28.8

Pull%

34.4

Soft%

21.9

GB%

61.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

8.6

Hard%

29.4

FB%

34.5

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

11.8

GB%

42.9

Home

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

28.7

FB%

31.6

Pull%

41.8

Soft%

14.8

GB%

46.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

26.8

FB%

34.5

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

14.3

GB%

49.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Sonny Gray stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (64% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .868 OPS over last 15 days
84°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.333↑ vs season .22442 PA · 15d

OPS

.868

ISO

.154

RBI

K-BB

13-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ BOS	4	2	0	1	0	1	.500
06-16	@ BOS	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.500
💣 413ft · 104.9 EV · Cutter
06-13	vs NYY	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-12	vs NYY	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-10	vs PHI	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs PHI	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	2	.500
06-07	vs BAL	4	2	0	1	0	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.209	.239	3.9	26.0	49	24.9
🐾FCCutter15PA	.200	.325	6.7	21.4	60	20.5
🐾STSweeper18PA	.294	.284	7.1	15.4	50	27.5
🐾CUCurveball24PA	.228	.285	15.4	10.5	92	26.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.071	.298	0.0	25.0	67	15.0	71	16
vs RHP	.241	.225	5.1	25.6	44	20.9	82	58

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.750	.582	25.0	25.0	50	28.6	71	4
vs RHP	—	.261	0.0	18.2	64	15.8	82	13

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.375	.407	16.7	16.7	67	18.8	71	9
vs RHP	.200	.189	0.0	12.5	38	32.0	82	10

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.322	15.4	15.4	92	26.7	82	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

102

vs RHB

vs SHB

Fenway Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Giménez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #9Confirmed0 of 11 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 7 of 11 career HRs (64%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.141

Barrel %

3.8

Hard Hit %

23.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.265

xBA

.224

Brl / PA %

2.80

Max EV (mph)

108.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

2.80

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sonny Gray · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
21
xwOBA
.239
Whiff%
24.9
HH%
26.0
BRL%
3.9
Pull%
49
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 73 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
21
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
20.5
HH%
21.4
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
60
STSweeper
Use%
18
xwOBA
.284
Whiff%
27.5
HH%
15.4
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
50

Career vs Sonny Gray

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

4.000

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Sonny Gray arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.6	6.1	28.9	57	.359	23.8
FCCutter	20.6	5.8	26.1	54	.351	6.3
STSweeper	18.4	8.3	51.5	72	.257	19.8
CUCurveball	18.3	12.5	42.9	67	.389	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	7.0	30.2	58	.368	25.0	55
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	50	.300	16.7	10

FCCutter21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	27.8	56	.384	14.3	22
vs RHB	2.9	23.5	53	.328	0.0	36

STSweeper18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	66.7	73	.235	25.0	33
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	38.1	71	.282	17.8	36

CUCurveball18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	9.5	42.9	62	.360	14.7	30
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .398). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BOS)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Fenway Park (310/390/302 ft) · elev 21ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 29 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP184PA	.144	.387	.664	4.3%	5
vs LHP67PA	.133	.333	.606	3.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home134PA	.128	.384	.677	2.8%	3
🐾Away117PA	.157	.361	.617	5.7%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day105PA	.082	.309	.576	3.5%	1
Night146PA	.184	.419	.702	4.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.134	.328	.567	2
Runners On123PA	.144	.405	.716	3
RISP63PA	.143	.411	.717	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs93PA	.161	.379	.629	4
1 Out78PA	.110	.315	.559	1
2 Outs80PA	.151	.425	.763	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.