Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.7%

+689

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

11.0%

+811

RBI 1+

34.3%

+191

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.7%

95% CI · 8.4–9.0%

+1050

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact-9%
SP Contact-8%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (season) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0316 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+690

High

+1250

Low

+435

Med

+765

Avg

+823

+690

Low +435High +1250

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.0

Proj PA

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.154

wOBA

.302

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

45.0

Pull%

45.0

Soft%

10.0

GB%

50.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

44.4

FB%

44.4

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

11.1

GB%

50.0

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

43.8

FB%

50.0

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

6.3

GB%

43.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.143↓ vs season .25010 PA · 15d

OPS

.686

ISO

.143

RBI

K-BB

2-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-10	@ SF	3	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ SF	1	0	0	1	0	—
06-08	@ SF	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ ARI	2	0	0	1	1	—
06-01	vs MIA	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-31	vs SD	1	1	1	0	0	2.000
05-30	vs SD	0	0	0	1	0	—
05-27	@ CLE	1	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-SeamervR7PA	—	.095	66.7	83	20.0
🐾SLSlider5PA	—	.468	100.0	0	52.9
🐾SISinker7PA	—	.485	60.0	100	—
🐾CHChangeup11PA	.111	.300	—	83	27.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seamer

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.578	16.7	83.3	50	10.5	77	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.095	0.0	66.7	83	20.0	—	7

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.300	0.0	0.0	80	25.0	77	8
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Chaparro.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 1 of 2 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.095
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
66.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
83
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.468
Whiff%
52.9
HH%
100.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
0
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.485
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
60.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .816). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP3PA	—	.333	.666	7.7%	0
vs LHP32PA	.083	.208	.552	5.3%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home7PA	.250	.500	1.071	—	0
Away28PA	.044	.174	.460	10.0%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day25PA	.100	.250	.570	4.0%	0
Night10PA	—	.143	.543	14.3%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty16PA	—	—	.250
Runners On12PA	.111	.333	.750
RISP7PA	.200	.600	1.171

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs11PA	.143	.429	.974
1 Out13PA	—	—	.231
2 Outs11PA	.100	.300	.573

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-05PA	—	—	—
1-03PA	—	—	—
0-14PA	.250	.500	.750
2-01PA	—	1.000	2.000
0-21PA	—	—	—
1-27PA	—	—	—
2-27PA	—	—	—
3-211PA	—	—	.545

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.