Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.1%

+725

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 85

2+ RBI

10.7%

+838

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

65.7%

-191

Hits 2+

23.6%

+325

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.7%

95% CI · 15.3–16.1%

+538

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-15%
vs SP-34%
Contact+14%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+21%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0363 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-15% (×0.85)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+21% (×1.21)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 2 HR

Now

+725

High

+1075

Low

+415

Med

+660

Avg

+681

🐾🐾+725

Low +415🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.3

Proj PA

359

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.181

wOBA

.343

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.2

Hard%

41.9

FB%

38.3

Pull%

29.3

Soft%

13.8

GB%

35.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

46.5

FB%

23.3

Pull%

18.6

Soft%

14.0

GB%

46.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

40.3

FB%

43.5

Pull%

33.1

Soft%

13.7

GB%

32.3

Home

HR/FB

20.7

Hard%

38.1

FB%

34.5

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

13.1

GB%

39.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

45.8

FB%

42.2

Pull%

25.3

Soft%

14.5

GB%

32.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Angel Stadium suppresses HRs (85)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (71% of career HRs)
Park drag (85)
Elite barrel% (12.0)
High barrels/PA (7.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.217↓ vs season .26255 PA · 15d

OPS

.693

ISO

.131

RBI

K-BB

15-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	5	2	3	0	0	.400
06-10	vs BOS	4	1	0	0	1	.250
06-08	vs BOS	4	1	1	0	1	.250
06-07	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-06	@ MIA	4	0	0	1	3	—
06-05	@ MIA	3	1	1	2	0	.333
06-03	vs DET	2	0	0	2	0	—
06-02	vs DET	4	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR19PA	.333	.437	18.2	45.5	27	13.8
🐾CUCurveballvR12PA	.545	.516	42.9	100.0	71	25.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR81PA	.262	.418	14.9	53.2	57	19.5
🐾FSSplit-FingervR18PA	.055	.324	6.7	20.0	47	18.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.043	.367	0.0	50.0	70	9.8	104	27
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.437	18.2	45.5	27	13.8	140	19

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.545	.516	42.9	100.0	71	25.0	140	12

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.246	7.1	57.1	43	27.8	104	28
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.262	.418	14.9	53.2	57	19.5	140	81

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.055	.324	6.7	20.0	47	18.8	140	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Aranda.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 10 of 14 career HRs (71%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.182

Barrel %

12.0

Hard Hit %

46.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.372

xBA

.262

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

111.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.0

Avg EV on HRs

104.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/9

Avg LA on HRs

30.0°

Brl / PA %

7.20

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.437
Whiff%
13.8
HH%
45.5
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
27
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.516
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
100.0
BRL%
42.9
Pull%
71
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.418
Whiff%
19.5
HH%
53.2
BRL%
14.9
Pull%
57
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .513). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball4

SLSlider2

CUCurveball2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP199PA	.230	.503	.880	14.1%	10
vs LHP85PA	.058	.329	.705	4.3%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home136PA	.193	.456	.824	11.8%	6
🐾Away148PA	.165	.446	.831	11.4%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day128PA	.152	.381	.733	10.1%	4
🐾Night156PA	.200	.508	.905	13.0%	7

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty96PA	.172	.407	.761	4
Runners On137PA	.119	.431	.840	2
RISP80PA	.112	.435	.835	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs92PA	.287	.525	.851	7
1 Out108PA	.100	.367	.710	2
2 Outs84PA	.154	.477	.953	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-041PA	.150	.575	1.014	1
1-013PA	.770	1.385	2.000	3
0-123PA	.190	.619	1.010	1
2-03PA	—	.667	1.333	0
0-225PA	.083	.250	.410	0
3-09PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-244PA	.181	.295	.409	2
2-242PA	—	.167	.333	0
3-257PA	.115	.229	.667	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.