Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.2%

+885

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Trey Gibson (RHP) (1.06 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

9.6%

+944

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.8%

95% CI · 5.6–6.1%

+1618

Fair odds

1st AB

1.5%

Through AB2

2.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP-3%
Contact-17%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast+4%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Trey Gibson (RHP)

·90F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0213 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-3% (×0.97) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-17% (×0.83)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 8 games · 3 HR

Now

+885

High

+1080

Low

+550

Med

+862

Avg

+836

🐾🐾🐾+885

Low +550🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1080

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 3× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.3

Proj PA

192

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.119

wOBA

.284

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

24.7

FB%

40.4

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

14.0

GB%

40.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

33.3

Hard%

38.1

FB%

28.6

Pull%

61.9

Soft%

4.8

GB%

47.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

3.3

Hard%

20.8

FB%

44.1

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

16.7

GB%

38.2

Home

HR/FB

15.8

Hard%

23.2

FB%

35.8

Pull%

55.4

Soft%

10.7

GB%

47.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.5

FB%

48.7

Pull%

32.5

Soft%

20.0

GB%

30.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
Hot streak: .743 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .25031 PA · 15d

OPS

.743

ISO

.357

RBI

K-BB

6-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs CIN	5	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs CIN	3	2	1	2	0	1	1.667
💣 376ft · 98.1 EV · Curveball
06-07	vs NYM	4	2	1	3	0	0	1.500
💣 404ft · 103.6 EV · 4-Seamer
06-06	vs NYM	2	1	1	2	0	0	2.000
💣 366ft · 99.3 EV · Sinker
06-04	@ PHI	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-02	@ PHI	2	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR35PA	.125	.269	3.6	39.3	64	11.9
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SLSlidervR17PA	—	.250	0.0	18.2	73	41.2
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.364	0.0	40.0	80	0.0	157	5
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.269	3.6	39.3	64	11.9	19	35

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.250	0.0	18.2	73	41.2	19	17

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Fermin.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Trey Gibson · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.269
Whiff%
11.9
HH%
39.3
BRL%
3.6
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 35 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
24
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.250
Whiff%
41.2
HH%
18.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
73
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 17 PA this season.

Trey Gibson (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	28.4	10.0	40.0	55	.370	5.9
FCCutter	24.2	14.3	42.9	71	.425	7.1
SLSlider	18.9	0.0	50.0	75	.341	7.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.1	25.0	50.0	63	.580	16.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	57	.436	—	7
vs RHB	15.4	30.8	54	.342	7.1	16

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	44.4	67	.541	0.0	9
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	40.0	80	.276	12.5	7

SLSlider19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	100	.267	13.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	66.7	50	.425	0.0	7

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.3	42.9	57	.447	20.0	9
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 16.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .480). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP110PA	.063	.179	.383	1.2%	1
vs LHP29PA	.308	.577	.922	4.8%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home74PA	.174	.333	.583	3.2%	3
🐾Away65PA	.052	.190	.405	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day54PA	.109	.261	.502	2.3%	1
Night85PA	.120	.267	.496	1.6%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty51PA	.043	.213	.448	0
Runners On63PA	.170	.321	.551	2
RISP39PA	.067	.167	.404	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs39PA	.093	.156	.318	1
1 Out57PA	.059	.196	.407	1
2 Outs43PA	.210	.447	.773	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-018PA	.400	.667	.889	2
1-012PA	.083	.250	.417	0
0-17PA	.143	.429	.714	0
2-02PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
0-213PA	.154	.692	1.231	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-225PA	—	.083	.203	0
2-216PA	—	—	—	0
3-227PA	—	—	.370	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.