Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.2%

+723

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.7%

+836

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

70.0%

-234

Hits 2+

28.5%

+251

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.0%

95% CI · 9.7–10.3%

+901

Fair odds

1st AB

2.0%

Through AB2

3.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-35%
Contact-14%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+7%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0306 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+675

High

+4510

Low

+450

Med

+730

Avg

+954

+675

Low +450High +4510

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.1

Proj PA

139

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.183

wOBA

.329

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

42.9

FB%

33.1

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

15.4

GB%

46.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

22.2

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

22.2

GB%

55.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

44.0

FB%

33.7

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

15.1

GB%

46.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

42.2

FB%

32.5

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

10.8

GB%

43.4

Away

HR/FB

16.1

Hard%

43.5

FB%

33.7

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

19.6

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (6.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.152↓ vs season .29036 PA · 15d

OPS

.464

ISO

.090

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-15	vs PIT	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-14	vs COL	5	1	0	2	0	0	.200
06-13	vs COL	1	0	0	1	0	0	—
06-12	vs COL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 461ft · 104.4 EV · Cutter
06-08	vs MIL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ HOU	2	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker33PA	.143	.367	3.6	46.4	36	11.9
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.095	.146	0.0	33.3	55	33.3
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball60PA	.120	.411	8.3	36.4	33	13.0
🐾FSSplit-Finger13PA	.231	.458	16.7	50.0	67	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.120	.366	4.0	48.0	36	5.7	124	29

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.067	.142	0.0	27.3	55	32.0	124	15

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.167	.295	0.0	25.0	25	20.0	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.102	.425	9.1	40.9	34	7.6	124	59

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.231	.458	16.7	50.0	67	16.0	124	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Cortes.

Season Statcast

ISO

.168

Barrel %

8.6

Hard Hit %

40.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.365

xBA

.290

Brl / PA %

6.60

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.7

Avg EV on HRs

102.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

6.60

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
11.9
HH%
46.4
BRL%
3.6
Pull%
36
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.146
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 21 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
13.0
HH%
36.4
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .390). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 24 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP187PA	.166	.442	.806	8.6%	6
vs LHP11PA	.200	.700	1.245	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home90PA	.101	.342	.675	7.5%	1
Away108PA	.223	.553	.960	8.7%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day82PA	.171	.526	.916	8.1%	2
🐾Night116PA	.165	.402	.764	8.2%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.151	.472	.901	1
Runners On80PA	.160	.377	.690	2
RISP50PA	.244	.537	.937	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs81PA	.144	.447	.780	3
1 Out55PA	.143	.388	.715	2
2 Outs62PA	.229	.542	1.010	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.