Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

18.0%

+456

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) (2.21 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

13.9%

+620

RBI 1+

37.0%

+170

Hits 1+

71.9%

-256

Hits 2+

30.9%

+224

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.9%

95% CI · 12.6–13.3%

+673

Fair odds

1st AB

3.6%

Through AB2

7.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast+10%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0310 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+455

High

+1135

Low

+515

Med

+660

Avg

+752

+455

Low +515High +1135

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.2

Proj PA

239

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.176

wOBA

.331

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

40.1

FB%

32.4

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

16.9

GB%

47.9

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

14.3

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

28.6

GB%

57.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

40.7

FB%

33.3

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

16.3

GB%

47.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.6

Hard%

34.5

FB%

32.7

Pull%

29.1

Soft%

12.7

GB%

43.6

Away

HR/FB

17.9

Hard%

43.7

FB%

32.2

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

19.5

GB%

50.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Kyle Freeland is leaky — 2.21 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
87°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (7.1%)
Pitcher HR-prone (2.21 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .30330 PA · 15d

OPS

.554

ISO

.142

RBI

K-BB

2-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs COL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	1	1	0	0	1.000
💣 461ft · 104.4 EV · Cutter
06-08	vs MIL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-07	@ HOU	2	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-06	@ HOU	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-05	@ HOU	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-03	@ CHC	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-02	@ CHC	3	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL6PA	.167	.295	0.0	25.0	25	20.0
🐾CUCurveball16PA	.125	.137	0.0	33.3	50	30.4
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CHChangeup33PA	.173	.279	8.7	20.0	70	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.167	.295	0.0	25.0	25	20.0	—	6
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.109	.447	9.3	41.9	33	6.1	141	56

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.100	.125	0.0	25.0	50	26.7	141	10

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.179	.294	8.7	21.7	70	30.2	141	32

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Cortes.

Season Statcast

ISO

.184

Barrel %

9.2

Hard Hit %

41.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.381

xBA

.303

Brl / PA %

7.10

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.7

Avg EV on HRs

102.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

396

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/4

Avg LA on HRs

28.0°

Brl / PA %

7.10

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Freeland · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.295
Whiff%
20.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
25
CUCurveball
Use%
23
xwOBA
.137
Whiff%
30.4
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 16 PA this season.
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Kyle Freeland (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.2	11.5	42.9	60	.450	8.8
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.6	—	52.6	—	.382	19.7
FCCutter	17.9	12.9	33.3	71	.363	16.7
CHChangeup	15.9	6.7	51.2	60	.371	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	44.4	56	.359	4.3	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.0	39.5	61	.465	11.3	58

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	16.7	67	.429	16.7	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.0	40.0	72	.348	15.0	29

CHChangeup16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.7	51.1	60	.372	14.0	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .390). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

FSSplitter1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

SLSlider1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP172PA	.182	.477	.861	9.2%	6
🐾vs LHP11PA	.200	.700	1.245	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home75PA	.123	.400	.773	8.8%	1
Away108PA	.223	.553	.960	8.7%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day77PA	.183	.549	.952	8.7%	2
🐾Night106PA	.182	.443	.830	8.8%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty58PA	.167	.521	.987	1
Runners On72PA	.177	.403	.722	2
RISP44PA	.277	.583	.992	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs75PA	.157	.471	.818	3
1 Out50PA	.159	.432	.792	2
2 Outs58PA	.245	.578	1.061	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-018PA	.059	.294	.572	0
1-012PA	—	.167	.333	0
0-115PA	.067	.267	.467	0
2-09PA	.778	1.111	1.444	2
0-211PA	.272	.545	.818	1
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-225PA	—	.360	.720	0
2-226PA	—	.200	.392	0
3-230PA	.316	.579	1.112	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Sat.