Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.0%

+896

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 84

2+ RBI

9.5%

+950

RBI 1+

33.0%

+203

Hits 1+

56.0%

-127

Hits 2+

14.7%

+582

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.2%

95% CI · 5.9–6.5%

+1516

Fair odds

1st AB

1.7%

Through AB2

3.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP+12%
Contact-19%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast-15%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0239 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+12% (×1.12) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-19% (×0.81)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 2 HR

Now

+895

High

+5485

Low

+655

Med

+975

Avg

+1277

🐾🐾+895

Low +655🐾 HR money zoneHigh +5485

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.8

Proj PA

212

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.123

wOBA

.279

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

26.8

FB%

44.9

Pull%

31.5

Soft%

18.1

GB%

40.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

4.5

FB%

31.6

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

36.4

GB%

52.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

31.4

FB%

47.7

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

14.3

GB%

37.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.7

Hard%

23.9

FB%

46.6

Pull%

29.9

Soft%

22.4

GB%

44.8

Away

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

29.0

FB%

42.0

Pull%

33.9

Soft%

12.9

GB%

36.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Hot streak: .864 OPS over last 15 days
82°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (84)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.262↑ vs season .20848 PA · 15d

OPS

.864

ISO

.262

RBI

K-BB

13-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs PHI	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ ATH	3	1	0	0	0	1	.667
06-09	@ ATH	3	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-08	@ ATH	2	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ COL	5	4	1	1	0	1	1.400
💣 426ft · 102.4 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05	@ COL	4	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-04	vs SF	4	1	1	1	1	0	1.000
💣 380ft · 95.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-03	vs SF	2	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR63PA	.250	.333	6.5	37.0	44	8.3
🐾SISinkervR18PA	.067	.488	6.7	46.7	33	5.4
🐾CHChangeupvR16PA	—	.169	0.0	33.3	67	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.239	0.0	40.0	50	13.6	81	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.250	.333	6.5	37.0	44	8.3	92	63

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.452	0.0	0.0	56	17.6	81	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	.067	.488	6.7	46.7	33	5.4	92	18

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.169	0.0	33.3	67	26.7	92	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Hamilton.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.092

Barrel %

3.9

Hard Hit %

29.4

xwOBA

.276

xBA

.208

Brl / PA %

2.70

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.9

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

2.70

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveball
Use%
34
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.333
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
37.0
BRL%
6.5
Pull%
44
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.488
Whiff%
5.4
HH%
46.7
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
33
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.2	—	25.8	—	.209	22.7
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.0	18.8	52.3	58	.453	21.9
SISinker	19.5	11.9	45.0	62	.409	13.3
CHChangeup	12.0	7.4	37.5	74	.281	6.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	55.6	64	.513	15.2	50
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	42	.320	28.1	21

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	52.9	77	.442	8.5	28
vs RHB	16.0	40.0	52	.382	21.2	33

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.5	31.8	68	.300	9.5	27
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .408). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP156PA	.113	.346	.661	5.3%	3
vs LHP36PA	—	.233	.576	3.6%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home95PA	.071	.238	.469	5.3%	1
Away97PA	.114	.418	.827	4.5%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day66PA	.074	.315	.654	5.9%	1
🐾Night126PA	.101	.330	.641	4.4%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.161	.375	.677	2
Runners On82PA	.047	.349	.754	0
RISP50PA	.050	.325	.721	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs66PA	.055	.291	.591	1
1 Out69PA	.086	.293	.606	0
2 Outs57PA	.140	.400	.751	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-032PA	.223	.704	1.141	1
1-013PA	.250	.583	.891	0
0-119PA	.222	.611	.980	1
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-210PA	—	.100	.200	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-236PA	.111	.278	.444	1
2-231PA	—	.129	.258	0
3-228PA	.059	.118	.546	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.