Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.4%

+703

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Gage Jump (1.20 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.8%

+822

RBI 1+

34.2%

+192

Hits 1+

67.0%

-203

Hits 2+

25.0%

+301

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.4%

95% CI · 20.9–21.8%

+368

Fair odds

1st AB

4.9%

Through AB2

10.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-10%
Contact+18%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0483 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+18% (×1.18)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+330

High

+1300

Low

+350

Med

+808

Avg

+751

🐾+330

Low +350🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1300

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+8402026-06-26vs ATHbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.7

Proj PA

238

HR / PA

.053

ISO

.227

wOBA

.335

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.0

Hard%

35.9

FB%

41.1

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

17.1

GB%

39.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

22.9

Hard%

38.8

FB%

41.2

Pull%

41.2

Soft%

12.9

GB%

38.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

6.0

Hard%

34.7

FB%

41.1

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

18.8

GB%

39.6

Home

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

33.6

FB%

38.4

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

16.8

GB%

34.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

37.7

FB%

43.2

Pull%

38.3

Soft%

17.3

GB%

43.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (27% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .874 OPS over last 15 days
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.346↑ vs season .27056 PA · 15d

OPS

.874

ISO

.135

RBI

K-BB

11-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-16	@ ARI	5	1	0	0	2	.400
06-15	@ ARI	4	2	1	0	0	.750
06-14	vs TB	3	2	1	1	0	.667
06-13	vs TB	5	4	0	0	0	1.000
06-12	vs TB	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-10	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs HOU	4	2	2	1	1	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball82PA	.267	.401	15.0	55.2	42	21.5
🐾SLSlider50PA	.143	.280	8.6	47.1	66	33.0
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.300	.322	0.0	46.7	75	29.3
🐾STSweeper31PA	.107	.270	9.5	42.1	62	28.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.577	.552	25.0	70.8	50	10.5	145	30
vs RHP	.096	.320	8.3	44.4	36	24.8	69	55

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.181	.291	14.3	42.9	29	35.3	145	11
vs RHP	.125	.278	7.1	46.4	75	34.5	69	41

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.214	.218	0.0	50.0	80	24.0	69	14

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.335	0.0	20.0	80	38.9	145	10
vs RHP	.261	.250	12.5	50.0	56	24.2	69	25

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Adell.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected4 of 15 HRs · 27%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 4 of 15 career HRs (27%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.143

Barrel %

8.5

Hard Hit %

45.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.333

xBA

.270

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

114.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.5

Avg EV on HRs

109.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

410

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/7

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Gage Jump · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
50
xwOBA
.401
Whiff%
21.5
HH%
55.2
BRL%
15.0
Pull%
42
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
25
xwOBA
.280
Whiff%
33.0
HH%
47.1
BRL%
8.6
Pull%
66
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 50 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
9
xwOBA
.322
Whiff%
29.3
HH%
46.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75

Gage Jump arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	49.7	3.2	29.0	55	.290	18.2
SLSlider	24.7	5.0	35.0	65	.353	12.5
CUCurveball	9.0	0.0	33.3	50	.216	21.1
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.0	0.0	28.6	86	.212	35.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball50% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	0	.316	25.0	7
vs RHB	3.7	33.3	63	.285	17.5	36

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	57	.503	—	8
vs RHB	0.0	23.1	69	.282	14.3	17

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	33.3	67	.230	21.4	8

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY7% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	80	.133	42.9	8
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 35.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .497). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 6

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

STSweeper1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP225PA	.104	.335	.611	7.5%	4
vs LHP89PA	.247	.556	.904	11.3%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home151PA	.080	.317	.608	6.9%	2
🐾Away163PA	.202	.468	.769	10.1%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day109PA	.174	.480	.847	6.2%	5
🐾Night205PA	.128	.354	.613	10.0%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty100PA	.097	.269	.499	2
Runners On145PA	.133	.444	.789	4
RISP77PA	.127	.465	.829	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs109PA	.185	.437	.731	5
1 Out97PA	.127	.437	.798	3
2 Outs108PA	.116	.320	.561	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.