Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

19.7%

+409

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Griffin Jax (RHP) (1.62 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

14.8%

+575

RBI 1+

37.8%

+164

Hits 1+

66.3%

-197

Hits 2+

24.3%

+312

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.8%

95% CI · 21.4–22.3%

+358

Fair odds

1st AB

5.4%

Through AB2

10.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-16%
Contact-11%
SP Contact+13%
Statcast+6%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Griffin Jax (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0483 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+6% (×1.06)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 1 HR

Now

+410

High

+840

Low

+335

Med

+455

Avg

+510

🐾+410

Low +335🐾 HR money zoneHigh +840

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

16.8

Proj PA

336

HR / PA

.050

ISO

.219

wOBA

.333

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

36.8

FB%

40.8

Pull%

39.8

Soft%

16.4

GB%

38.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

24.0

Hard%

40.4

FB%

43.9

Pull%

42.1

Soft%

10.5

GB%

35.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.0

Hard%

35.4

FB%

39.6

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

18.8

GB%

39.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

5.4

Hard%

33.7

FB%

41.6

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

18.0

GB%

29.2

Away

HR/FB

17.8

Hard%

39.3

FB%

40.2

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

15.2

GB%

45.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for RHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (27% of career HRs)
Park boost (127)
High barrels/PA (5.9%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.62 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.226↓ vs season .26655 PA · 15d

OPS

.613

ISO

.132

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs TB	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-10	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs HOU	4	2	0	2	1	1	.750
06-08	vs HOU	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ LAD	5	4	1	2	0	1	1.400
💣 433ft · 112.0 EV · Sinker
06-06	@ LAD	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ LAD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-03	vs COL	2	1	0	1	0	0	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾STSweepervR24PA	.227	.225	6.7	46.7	53	23.8
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.085	.293	9.7	45.2	39	26.1
🐾CHChangeupvR12PA	.083	.170	14.3	57.1	86	25.0
🐾SISinkervR54PA	.125	.369	5.0	35.0	60	18.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.348	0.0	25.0	75	42.9	146	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.227	.225	6.7	46.7	53	23.8	61	24

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.652	.603	28.6	71.4	52	12.1	146	27
vs RHPTONIGHT	.085	.293	9.7	45.2	39	26.1	61	49

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.182	0.0	21.4	57	51.2	146	19
vs RHPTONIGHT	.083	.170	14.3	57.1	86	25.0	61	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.411	0.0	57.1	86	0.0	146	8
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.369	5.0	35.0	60	18.3	61	54

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

127

vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Adell.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 4 of 15 career HRs (27%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#5#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.146

Barrel %

8.5

Hard Hit %

45.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.331

xBA

.266

Brl / PA %

5.90

Max EV (mph)

114.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

114.5

Avg EV on HRs

109.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

410

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/7

Avg LA on HRs

27.0°

Brl / PA %

5.90

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Griffin Jax · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

STSweepervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.225
Whiff%
23.8
HH%
46.7
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
53
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 24 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
21
xwOBA
.293
Whiff%
26.1
HH%
45.2
BRL%
9.7
Pull%
39
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.170
Whiff%
25.0
HH%
57.1
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
86
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.

Career vs Griffin Jax (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Griffin Jax (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
STSweeper	24.9	9.1	38.1	68	.289	22.4
FF4-Seam Fastball	20.6	23.8	47.6	52	.454	14.3
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY	20.4	3.3	33.3	53	.296	28.2
SISinker	19.6	4.2	41.7	71	.374	21.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

STSweeper25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	62.5	75	.520	7.7	12
vs RHB	7.1	28.6	64	.209	27.8	26

FF4-Seam Fastball21% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	46	.402	16.7	18
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	37.5	62.5	63	.531	11.8	12

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	26.9	46	.299	27.6	36
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	75.0	100	.278	30.0	7

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	63	.310	37.5	13
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	43.8	75	.417	0.0	20

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .497). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (LAA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Angel Stadium (330/400/330 ft) · elev 153ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 6

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball5

STSweeper1

KCKnuckle-Curve1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP210PA	.096	.313	.575	6.8%	4
vs LHP81PA	.271	.568	.901	12.9%	6

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home141PA	.076	.282	.537	6.7%	2
Away150PA	.205	.475	.782	10.1%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day100PA	.187	.495	.855	6.7%	5
🐾Night191PA	.122	.326	.567	9.7%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty93PA	.092	.241	.445	2
Runners On134PA	.138	.444	.787	4
RISP74PA	.133	.471	.836	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs101PA	.188	.438	.725	5
1 Out92PA	.133	.434	.782	3
2 Outs98PA	.108	.280	.494	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-039PA	.406	.757	1.141	5
1-021PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-133PA	.300	.567	.900	2
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-223PA	—	.045	.132	0
3-02PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-257PA	.072	.268	.461	1
2-255PA	.038	.288	.579	0
3-228PA	.131	.348	.669	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.