Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.6%

+585

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 92

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.0%

+731

RBI 1+

35.3%

+183

Hits 1+

69.6%

-229

Hits 2+

28.0%

+257

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

11.1%

95% CI · 10.7–11.4%

+804

Fair odds

1st AB

3.1%

Through AB2

6.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Lineup+3%
Contact-8%
SP Contact+7%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·88F game
·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0274 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+520

High

+1440

Low

+445

Med

+822

Avg

+848

+520

Low +445High +1440

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.1

Proj PA

274

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.148

wOBA

.334

wRC+

113

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.9

Hard%

36.4

FB%

32.3

Pull%

26.5

Soft%

11.8

GB%

47.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

39.0

FB%

35.4

Pull%

29.3

Soft%

8.5

GB%

37.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

35.5

FB%

31.2

Pull%

25.5

Soft%

13.0

GB%

51.1

Home

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

36.8

FB%

38.2

Pull%

22.2

Soft%

13.9

GB%

42.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.5

Hard%

36.1

FB%

27.2

Pull%

30.2

Soft%

10.1

GB%

52.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CU)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (60% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.158 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (5.6%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.436↑ vs season .28758 PA · 15d

OPS

1.158

ISO

.291

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	4	3	0	1	1	0	.750
06-16	@ CIN	5	2	0	1	0	1	.400
06-15	@ CIN	5	3	0	0	0	1	1.000
06-14	vs ATL	5	2	0	0	0	2	.400
06-13	vs ATL	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750
06-12	vs ATL	3	2	2	6	0	0	2.667
💣 341ft · 96.6 EV · 4-Seamer💣 383ft · 102.6 EV · Slider
06-11	vs STL	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 378ft · 103.0 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR13PA	.091	.383	10.0	40.0	40	35.0
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR67PA	.170	.332	4.4	57.8	20	11.3
🐾SISinkervR65PA	.016	.251	1.7	46.6	40	5.6
🐾CHChangeupvR13PA	.100	.309	0.0	50.0	70	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.334	.470	25.0	37.5	63	11.1	130	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.091	.383	10.0	40.0	40	35.0	77	13

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.166	.387	8.3	75.0	17	10.2	130	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	.170	.332	4.4	57.8	20	11.3	77	67

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.272	.374	9.1	36.4	46	5.0	130	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.016	.251	1.7	46.6	40	5.6	77	65

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.047	.362	0.0	5.0	45	10.3	130	25
vs RHPTONIGHT	.100	.309	0.0	50.0	70	20.0	77	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bichette.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected3 of 20 HRs · 15%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 12 of 20 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.124

Barrel %

7.3

Hard Hit %

45.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.334

xBA

.287

Brl / PA %

5.60

Max EV (mph)

114.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

5.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.383
Whiff%
35.0
HH%
40.0
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
40
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.332
Whiff%
11.3
HH%
57.8
BRL%
4.4
Pull%
20
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.251
Whiff%
5.6
HH%
46.6
BRL%
1.7
Pull%
40
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 65 PA this season.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.250AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

.500

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

SISinker1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE — overdue

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 12 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP241PA	.094	.344	.630	5.7%	4
vs LHP83PA	.213	.480	.817	10.3%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home156PA	.128	.357	.645	5.9%	5
🐾Away168PA	.119	.396	.706	7.8%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day151PA	.058	.292	.583	4.9%	2
Night173PA	.179	.451	.757	8.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty129PA	.083	.281	.529	2
Runners On132PA	.188	.487	.835	5
RISP72PA	.119	.390	.737	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs101PA	.125	.427	.754	3
1 Out115PA	.094	.330	.600	2
2 Outs108PA	.154	.381	.687	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.