Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.4%

+706

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.8%

+824

RBI 1+

34.2%

+192

Hits 1+

67.9%

-212

Hits 2+

26.0%

+284

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

10.1%

95% CI · 9.8–10.4%

+889

Fair odds

1st AB

2.5%

Through AB2

5.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-11%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-2%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0268 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+705

High

+955

Low

+410

Med

+705

Avg

+707

+705

Low +410High +955

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.0

Proj PA

399

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.143

wOBA

.333

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.1

Hard%

37.1

FB%

33.0

Pull%

24.6

Soft%

11.6

GB%

50.4

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

39.7

FB%

36.2

Pull%

24.1

Soft%

8.6

GB%

41.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

36.1

FB%

31.9

Pull%

24.7

Soft%

12.7

GB%

53.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.5

Hard%

34.3

FB%

39.2

Pull%

16.7

Soft%

15.7

GB%

46.1

Away

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

39.3

FB%

27.9

Pull%

31.1

Soft%

8.2

GB%

54.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (60% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .840 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (5.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.265↓ vs season .27655 PA · 15d

OPS

.840

ISO

.266

RBI

K-BB

10-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ATL	3	2	2	6	0	0	2.667
06-11	vs STL	4	1	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 378ft · 103.0 EV · Sweeper
06-10	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	vs STL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ SD	5	2	0	0	0	2	.600
06-06	@ SD	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-05	@ SD	4	2	0	1	0	2	1.250
06-03	@ SEA	4	4	0	3	0	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvL19PA	—	.317	0.0	7.1	36	9.1
🐾SISinkervL11PA	.272	.344	9.1	36.4	46	—
🐾FCCutter14PA	.307	.473	25.0	66.7	50	22.2
🐾CUCurveballvL10PA	.334	.470	25.0	37.5	63	11.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.317	0.0	7.1	36	9.1	115	19
vs RHP	.100	.339	0.0	44.4	67	21.1	58	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.272	.344	9.1	36.4	46	0.0	115	11
vs RHP	.017	.234	2.0	49.0	39	5.1	58	57

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.077	.390	18.2	63.6	46	20.0	58	13

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.334	.470	25.0	37.5	63	11.1	115	10
vs RHP	.091	.383	10.0	40.0	40	36.8	58	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bichette.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 12 of 20 career HRs (60%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.103

Barrel %

7.6

Hard Hit %

46.4

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.326

xBA

.276

Brl / PA %

5.70

Max EV (mph)

114.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.8

Avg EV on HRs

102.3

Avg HR Distance (ft)

383

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

3/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.3°

Brl / PA %

5.70

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.317
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
7.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
36
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.344
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
36.4
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
46
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.473
Whiff%
22.2
HH%
66.7
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

1.000AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 5

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SLSlider1

FCCutter1

SISinker1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP225PA	.091	.322	.593	5.7%	4
🐾vs LHP75PA	.221	.456	.763	11.3%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home147PA	.130	.344	.623	5.6%	5
Away153PA	.118	.366	.647	8.5%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day137PA	.056	.258	.521	5.4%	2
Night163PA	.177	.434	.728	8.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty120PA	.071	.241	.466	2
Runners On122PA	.203	.481	.809	5
RISP68PA	.125	.357	.666	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs93PA	.125	.409	.721	3
1 Out103PA	.086	.277	.510	2
2 Outs104PA	.160	.383	.681	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-040PA	.231	.744	1.244	2
1-027PA	.037	.296	.556	0
0-127PA	.148	.370	.593	1
2-04PA	—	.250	.500	0
0-241PA	.100	.250	.396	1
3-03PA	—	—	.667	0
1-247PA	.043	.128	.213	0
2-231PA	—	.100	.229	0
3-234PA	.227	.636	1.254	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.