Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.8%

+828

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joey Estes (RHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

9.9%

+907

RBI 1+

33.4%

+200

Hits 1+

64.8%

-185

Hits 2+

22.7%

+341

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.2%

95% CI · 11.8–12.5%

+722

Fair odds

1st AB

3.3%

Through AB2

6.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+40%
Contact+16%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Joey Estes (RHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0215 · blended_3sys

TTO rampconstant

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+40% (×1.40) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games

Now

+830

High

+1090

Low

+405

Med

+750

Avg

+742

+830

Low +405High +1090

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.8

Proj PA

250

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.126

wOBA

.328

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

52.7

FB%

25.0

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

5.4

GB%

49.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

16.7

FB%

33.3

Pull%

66.7

Soft%

16.7

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

54.7

FB%

24.5

Pull%

34.0

Soft%

4.7

GB%

49.1

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

55.6

FB%

20.6

Pull%

23.8

Soft%

4.8

GB%

49.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

49.0

FB%

30.6

Pull%

51.0

Soft%

6.1

GB%

49.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

51.8% hard-hit — punisher
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (67% of career HRs)
87°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (4.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.323↑ vs season .25736 PA · 15d

OPS

.804

ISO

.064

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ ATH	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	vs CHC	5	1	0	0	1	.200
06-10	vs CHC	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
06-09	vs CHC	4	2	3	0	1	.750
06-07	vs MIL	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs MIL	3	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	vs MIL	2	1	1	0	1	.500
06-03	@ LAA	3	1	0	1	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
SISinkervR14PA	.416	.492	18.2	63.6	46	6.7
FF4-Seam FastballvR59PA	.038	.381	4.5	54.5	64	7.0
STSweepervR17PA	.143	.448	18.2	36.4	36	28.6
SLSlidervR22PA	.176	.319	20.0	60.0	80	50.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.416	.492	18.2	63.6	46	6.7	80	14

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.353	0.0	100.0	0	20.0	—	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	.038	.381	4.5	54.5	64	7.0	80	59

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.143	.448	18.2	36.4	36	28.6	80	17

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.176	.319	20.0	60.0	80	50.0	80	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Julien.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 6 of 9 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.080

Barrel %

7.1

Hard Hit %

51.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.340

xBA

.257

Brl / PA %

4.30

Max EV (mph)

109.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

379

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.0°

Brl / PA %

4.30

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Career vs Joey Estes (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

1.666

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .380). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FCCutter1

SLSlider1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP173PA	.086	.329	.664	8.6%	2
vs LHP14PA	—	—	.143	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home104PA	.043	.269	.577	5.6%	0
🐾Away83PA	.127	.352	.689	11.8%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day71PA	.080	.270	.552	10.2%	0
🐾Night116PA	.079	.327	.672	6.8%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty48PA	.190	.452	.806	2
Runners On63PA	.018	.268	.601	0
RISP33PA	—	.357	.812	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs93PA	.050	.235	.525	0
1 Out53PA	.156	.431	.733	2
2 Outs41PA	.031	.281	.696	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-022PA	.136	.636	1.136
1-013PA	—	.154	.308
0-111PA	.091	.273	.455
2-02PA	—	1.000	2.000
0-211PA	.091	.364	.636
3-04PA	—	—	1.000
1-221PA	.100	.250	.440
2-238PA	.026	.105	.184
3-246PA	.072	.286	.807

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.