Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.1%

+727

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

10.7%

+839

RBI 1+

34.1%

+194

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

7.9%

95% CI · 7.6–8.2%

+1171

Fair odds

1st AB

1.8%

Through AB2

3.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
vs SP-13%
Contact-12%
Statcast-17%
SP Statcast-1%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0362 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-1% (×0.99)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+725

High

+1565

Low

+430

Med

+780

Avg

+800

+725

Low +430High +1565

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.7

Proj PA

117

HR / PA

.040

ISO

.187

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

32.5

FB%

45.0

Pull%

52.5

Soft%

17.5

GB%

37.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

50.0

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

21.4

GB%

35.7

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.9

FB%

42.3

Pull%

57.7

Soft%

15.4

GB%

38.5

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

30.8

FB%

46.2

Pull%

57.7

Soft%

19.2

GB%

38.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

35.7

FB%

42.9

Pull%

42.9

Soft%

14.3

GB%

35.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (67% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.167↓ vs season .2506 PA · 15d

OPS

.334

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs ARI	4	0	0	1	—
06-03	@ WSH	2	1	0	1	.500
05-30	@ NYM	3	0	1	3	—
05-27	@ TOR	3	1	0	2	.333
05-24	vs NYM	4	1	0	1	.500
05-21	vs ATL	3	1	1	2	.333
05-20	vs ATL	3	0	0	0	—
05-19	vs ATL	4	1	0	3	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR18PA	—	.252	0.0	33.3	44	23.3
🐾SISinker	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.228	0.0	66.7	50	31.6	15	13
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.252	0.0	33.3	44	23.3	20	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Morel.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 12 of 18 career HRs (67%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
23.3
HH%
33.3
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
44
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

2.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .366). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP48PA	.046	.186	.415	—	0
vs LHP25PA	.040	.240	.440	5.3%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home47PA	.045	.227	.461	3.3%	0
🐾Away26PA	.042	.167	.359	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day32PA	.097	.355	.636	5.0%	0
Night41PA	—	.081	.252	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty25PA	.044	.261	.541
Runners On31PA	.033	.133	.262
RISP17PA	—	.063	.181

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs24PA	.045	.227	.477
1 Out27PA	.039	.154	.302
2 Outs22PA	.050	.250	.523

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.