Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.6%

+695

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Michael Soroka (RHP) (0.73 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

10.9%

+816

RBI 1+

34.3%

+192

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.9%

95% CI · 9.6–10.3%

+907

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-16%
Contact-15%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+7%
SP Statcast-1%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Michael Soroka (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·88F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0297 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-15% (×0.85)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+7% (×1.07)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 5 games

Now

+695

High

+765

Low

+575

Med

+695

Avg

+671

+695

Low +575High +765

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.4

Proj PA

137

HR / PA

.032

ISO

.155

wOBA

.314

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

31.4

FB%

44.8

Pull%

27.1

Soft%

14.3

GB%

32.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

39.0

FB%

45.0

Pull%

26.8

Soft%

9.8

GB%

32.5

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

8.3

Hard%

20.7

FB%

44.4

Pull%

27.6

Soft%

20.7

GB%

33.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

21.2

FB%

45.2

Pull%

24.2

Soft%

9.1

GB%

38.7

Away

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

40.5

FB%

44.4

Pull%

29.7

Soft%

18.9

GB%

27.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
Michael Soroka stingy: only 0.73 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.73 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.316↑ vs season .25022 PA · 15d

OPS

.777

ISO

.052

RBI

K-BB

5-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs ARI	2	0	3	2	—
06-10	@ SD	4	1	0	1	.250
06-09	@ SD	3	1	0	1	.333
06-07	@ STL	1	1	0	0	1.000
06-06	@ STL	4	2	0	0	.500
06-03	vs KC	1	1	0	0	2.000
06-02	vs KC	3	0	0	0	—
05-29	vs ATL	1	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SVSlurve	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR13PA	—	.269	0.0	—	20	16.7
🐾CHChangeup13PA	—	.411	9.1	33.3	73	22.7
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.150	.223	0.0	20.0	13	9.8	106	25
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.269	0.0	0.0	20	16.7	120	13

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.420	12.5	50.0	75	31.6	106	11
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

110

vs SHB

104

Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Myers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 1 of 4 career HRs (25%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2#4#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

Pull % (HRs)

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.6

Avg EV on HRs

99.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

378

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

6.18

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Michael Soroka · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

SVSlurve
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.269
Whiff%
16.7
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
20
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 13 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
13
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
22.7
HH%
33.3
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
73
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Michael Soroka (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

2.500

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Michael Soroka (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SVSlurve	32.8	3.2	32.8	69	.273	22.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.7	8.8	41.9	49	.345	17.3
CHChangeup	12.6	15.2	21.9	67	.375	14.8
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.7	12.9	32.0	81	.340	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SVSlurve33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	36.1	69	.301	23.1	68
vs RHB	7.7	30.8	69	.237	26.2	50

FF4-Seam Fastball32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.9	34.4	50	.389	16.8	88
vs RHB	0.0	56.2	44	.211	19.6	27

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	20.0	67	.379	16.0	35
vs RHB	no sample

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	16.7	50.0	78	.357	22.2	21
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	23.1	85	.316	33.3	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .412). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FA1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP46PA	.077	.359	.750	6.2%	1
vs LHP71PA	.167	.417	.769	8.3%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home53PA	.113	.386	.782	5.7%	1
Away64PA	.145	.400	.744	8.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day51PA	.083	.375	.708	5.0%	1
Night66PA	.177	.412	.806	10.0%	2

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty37PA	.226	.484	.862	2
Runners On49PA	.122	.390	.757	1
RISP28PA	.217	.565	.994	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs42PA	.027	.270	.580	0
1 Out40PA	.147	.441	.841	1
2 Outs35PA	.250	.500	.900	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-014PA	.357	.857	1.357	1
1-010PA	.400	.800	1.200	1
0-19PA	.111	.444	.778	0
2-01PA	—	—	—	0
0-28PA	—	.375	.750	0
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-218PA	—	.188	.465	0
2-225PA	—	.125	.285	0
3-222PA	.166	.444	.854	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.