Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.2%

+1114

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 78

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1072

RBI 1+

32.1%

+211

Hits 1+

67.0%

-203

Hits 2+

25.0%

+301

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.1%

95% CI · 8.7–9.4%

+1003

Fair odds

1st AB

1.9%

Through AB2

3.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-22%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact+4%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+3%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·90F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0320 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park-22% (×0.78)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+3% (×1.03)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 1 HR

Now

+1115

High

+1145

Low

+410

Med

+705

Avg

+749

🐾+1115

Low +410🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1145

BELOW ZONEspot score 48

Longer price than he's homered at (+410 to +410). Model sees less pop tonight.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.0

Proj PA

392

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.180

wOBA

.342

wRC+

124

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

39.3

FB%

26.5

Pull%

38.3

Soft%

10.2

GB%

51.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

38.8

FB%

32.7

Pull%

46.9

Soft%

16.3

GB%

42.9

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

39.5

FB%

24.5

Pull%

35.4

Soft%

8.2

GB%

54.4

Home

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

37.6

FB%

26.7

Pull%

43.6

Soft%

11.9

GB%

55.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

41.1

FB%

26.3

Pull%

32.6

Soft%

8.4

GB%

47.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Nationals Park suppresses HRs (78)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (36% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (78)
High barrels/PA (5.0%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.278↑ vs season .27061 PA · 15d

OPS

.750

ISO

.111

RBI

K-BB

9-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-11	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	1	2	—
06-10	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ BAL	5	3	1	3	0	0	1.200
💣 360ft · 100.6 EV · Slider
06-08	@ BAL	4	3	0	1	0	0	.750
06-07	@ DET	3	1	0	1	1	1	.333
06-06	@ DET	3	2	0	2	1	0	1.000
06-05	@ DET	4	1	0	0	1	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR67PA	.130	.429	18.9	54.1	32	30.8
🐾CUCurveballvR6PA	.200	.265	0.0	66.7	67	30.8
🐾SISinkervR49PA	.102	.391	0.0	25.0	41	19.2
🐾STSweepervR26PA	.292	.343	15.8	42.1	63	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.208	.327	12.5	56.2	44	27.0	112	30
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.130	.429	18.9	54.1	32	30.8	149	67

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.428	.322	33.3	33.3	67	23.1	112	7
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.265	0.0	66.7	67	30.8	149	6

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.301	0.0	60.0	100	15.4	112	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.102	.391	0.0	25.0	41	19.2	149	49

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.365	0.0	37.5	50	15.4	112	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.292	.343	15.8	42.1	63	10.5	149	26

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

111

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Arozarena.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 16 of 44 career HRs (36%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.158

Barrel %

7.7

Hard Hit %

43.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.353

xBA

.270

Brl / PA %

5.00

Max EV (mph)

113.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.6

Avg EV on HRs

102.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

375

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

30.8°

Brl / PA %

5.00

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.429
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
54.1
BRL%
18.9
Pull%
32
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.265
Whiff%
30.8
HH%
66.7
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.391
Whiff%
19.2
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
41
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .391). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

SLSlider1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP226PA	.159	.462	.856	8.3%	5
vs LHP76PA	.151	.409	.738	7.5%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home147PA	.157	.391	.711	9.3%	4
🐾Away155PA	.158	.504	.936	6.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day111PA	.141	.391	.742	10.3%	2
Night191PA	.165	.479	.872	6.9%	5

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty104PA	.128	.383	.710	1
Runners On120PA	.243	.573	.973	6
RISP61PA	.192	.532	.975	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs104PA	.155	.417	.811	3
1 Out90PA	.130	.429	.807	1
2 Outs108PA	.180	.490	.851	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-041PA	.175	.575	.965	0
1-09PA	—	.500	1.056	0
0-131PA	.400	.833	1.285	3
2-04PA	—	.667	1.417	0
0-240PA	.105	.316	.566	1
3-09PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
1-249PA	.131	.348	.593	1
2-248PA	.125	.354	.583	1
3-253PA	.059	.147	.543	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.