Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
14.6%
+585
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 98
2+ RBI
12.0%
+731
RBI 1+
35.3%
+183
Hits 1+
67.9%
-212
Hits 2+
26.0%
+284
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter28.5%
95% CI · 28.0–29.0%
+251
Fair odds
1st AB
7.5%
Through AB2
14.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-2%
- Contact+25%
- Statcast+23%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0482 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-2% (×0.98)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 13 games · 1 HR
Now
+455
High
+2495
Low
+305
Med
+500
Avg
+761
🐾+455
Low +305🐾 HR money zoneHigh +2495
WARMspot score 92
Just below his HR money zone (+345 to +345). Close, not prime.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+3452026-05-29vs ATLbook line
HomeBat 3rdoff RHP4-Seamer
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
15.8
Proj PA
310
HR / PA
.051
ISO
.232
wOBA
.351
wRC+
118
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
18.3
Hard%
35.8
FB%
48.8
Pull%
51.2
Soft%
12.2
GB%
28.5
vs LHP
HR/FB
11.8
Hard%
31.4
FB%
48.6
Pull%
45.7
Soft%
17.1
GB%
25.7
vs RHP
HR/FB
20.9
Hard%
37.5
FB%
48.9
Pull%
53.4
Soft%
10.2
GB%
29.5
🐾Home
HR/FB
24.0
Hard%
38.8
FB%
51.0
Pull%
59.2
Soft%
8.2
GB%
28.6
Away
HR/FB
14.3
Hard%
33.8
FB%
47.3
Pull%
45.9
Soft%
14.9
GB%
28.4
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
4.0 🐾STRONG PLAY
- Elite power: .290 ISO
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (65% of career HRs)
- Elite barrel% (12.2)
- High barrels/PA (8.4%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.200↓ vs season .27655 PA · 15d
OPS
.673
ISO
.200
HR
2
RBI
5
K-BB
12-5
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | vs ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-12 | vs ARI | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .500 |
| 06-10 | @ SD | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.333 |
| 💣 391ft · 108.7 EV · Changeup | ||||||||
| 06-09 | @ SD | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .167 |
| 06-08 | @ SD | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-07 | @ STL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-06 | @ STL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .200 |
| 06-05 | @ STL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CU12PA | .700 | .572 | 33.3 | 88.9 | 89 | 39.1 |
| FF42PA | .412 | .530 | 25.0 | 43.3 | 63 | 11.3 |
| FC14PA | .333 | .400 | 11.1 | 55.6 | 100 | 17.9 |
| SI25PA | .048 | .373 | 5.0 | 61.1 | 75 | 19.5 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .500 | .649 | 28.6 | 85.7 | 86 | 41.2 | 166 | 10 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .446 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 38 | 8.7 | 90 | 12 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .556 | .565 | 25.0 | 37.5 | 71 | 8.3 | 166 | 32 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .100 | .317 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 100 | 9.5 | 166 | 11 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .286 | .373 | 7.1 | 57.1 | 64 | 19.2 | 90 | 15 |
| vs RHP | — | .374 | 0.0 | 83.3 | 100 | 17.6 | 166 | 12 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
98
vs RHB
110
vs SHB
104
Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Bleday.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 15 of 23 career HRs (65%).
1
·
5
2
·
15
3
🐾
1
4
·
2
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#3
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.290
Barrel %
12.2
Hard Hit %
47.2
Pull % (HRs)
100
xwOBA
.386
xBA
.276
Brl / PA %
8.40
Max EV (mph)
112.6
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
112.6
Avg EV on HRs
104.3
Avg HR Distance (ft)
395
HRs in sample
8
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/8
Crushed (105+ mph)
3/8
Avg LA on HRs
27.8°
Brl / PA %
8.40
Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .472). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
CU🐾Curveball2
SISinker1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
SLSlider1
FCCutter1
CHChangeup1
STSweeper1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
2
games since last HR
8
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 38 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP130PA | .339 | .616 | .993 | 13.0% | 9 |
| vs LHP49PA | .162 | .395 | .701 | 13.5% | 2 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home78PA | .375 | .656 | 1.066 | 10.2% | 6 |
| Away101PA | .231 | .484 | .801 | 15.0% | 5 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day70PA | .414 | .690 | 1.090 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 🐾Night109PA | .216 | .474 | .804 | 9.5% | 5 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty59PA | .326 | .538 | .843 | 5 |
| Runners On78PA | .268 | .507 | .840 | 4 |
| RISP42PA | .229 | .486 | .843 | 1 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs63PA | .218 | .545 | .958 | 2 |
| 1 Out57PA | .270 | .458 | .756 | 4 |
| 2 Outs59PA | .385 | .654 | 1.010 | 5 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.