Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
17.0%
+490
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 110
2+ RBI
13.3%
+650
RBI 1+
36.5%
+174
Hits 1+
66.0%
-194
Hits 2+
23.9%
+318
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter22.3%
95% CI · 21.8–22.7%
+349
Fair odds
1st AB
5.6%
Through AB2
11.5%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+10%
- Contact+20%
- Statcast+23%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
- ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0354 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park+10% (×1.10)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 1 HR
Now
+490
High
+5485
Low
+420
Med
+580
Avg
+1204
🐾+490
Low +420🐾 HR money zoneHigh +5485
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100
Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 1× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
🐾+4602026-06-02vs KCbook line
HomeBat 5thoff LHP4-Seamer
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
11.4
Proj PA
314
HR / PA
.036
ISO
.185
wOBA
.333
wRC+
106
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
13.0
Hard%
35.4
FB%
42.5
Pull%
49.7
Soft%
13.8
GB%
39.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
20.0
Hard%
36.7
FB%
51.0
Pull%
44.9
Soft%
8.2
GB%
38.8
vs RHP
HR/FB
9.6
Hard%
34.8
FB%
39.4
Pull%
51.5
Soft%
15.9
GB%
40.2
🐾Home
HR/FB
17.6
Hard%
37.6
FB%
40.0
Pull%
49.4
Soft%
12.9
GB%
37.6
Away
HR/FB
9.3
Hard%
33.3
FB%
44.8
Pull%
50.0
Soft%
14.6
GB%
41.7
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
- Great American Ball Park mild HR boost (+10)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (32% of career HRs)
- Park boost (110)
- Elite barrel% (12.7)
- High barrels/PA (8.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.179↓ vs season .26448 PA · 15d
OPS
.775
ISO
.283
HR
3
RBI
5
K-BB
11-8
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | vs ARI | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-12 | vs ARI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 06-10 | @ SD | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | .800 |
| 💣 387ft · 103.5 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
| 06-09 | @ SD | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 06-08 | @ SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-07 | @ STL | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 06-06 | @ STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 06-05 | @ STL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC19PA | .236 | .479 | 6.2 | 46.7 | 69 | 20.0 |
| CU14PA | — | .430 | 8.3 | 41.7 | 67 | 23.3 |
| SI76PA | .147 | .380 | 9.3 | 35.3 | 52 | 21.6 |
| SL33PA | .161 | .363 | 8.0 | 32.0 | 68 | 27.0 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | 1.000 | .700 | 33.3 | 66.7 | 100 | 22.2 | 188 | 6 |
| vs RHP | — | .378 | 0.0 | 38.5 | 62 | 20.8 | 82 | 14 |
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | .166 | .330 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 20 | 18.2 | 188 | 6 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | — | .430 | 0.0 | 57.1 | 100 | 18.8 | 82 | 7 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | — | .353 | 11.1 | 44.4 | 33 | 12.0 | 188 | 14 |
| vs RHP | .169 | .387 | 8.9 | 35.6 | 56 | 15.5 | 82 | 65 |
SLSlider
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | .750 | .864 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 75 | 14.3 | 188 | 4 |
| vs RHP | .074 | .309 | 4.8 | 28.6 | 67 | 27.6 | 82 | 29 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
98
🐾vs RHB
110
vs SHB
104
Great American Ball Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Steer.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 7 of 22 career HRs (32%).
3
1
·
4
2
🐾
6
3
🐾
7
4
🐾
5
·
2
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4#3#2
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.
Season Statcast
ISO
.179
Barrel %
12.7
Hard Hit %
39.2
Pull % (HRs)
100
xwOBA
.363
xBA
.264
Brl / PA %
8.60
Max EV (mph)
107.2
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
107.1
Avg EV on HRs
103.5
Avg HR Distance (ft)
393
HRs in sample
8
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/8
Crushed (105+ mph)
1/8
Avg LA on HRs
28.6°
Brl / PA %
8.60
Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .415). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (CIN)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Great American Ball Park (328/404/325 ft) · elev 482ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 4vs LHP 4
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3
CHChangeup2
SLSlider1
FCCutter1
SISinker1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
2
games since last HR
7
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP199PA | .124 | .354 | .661 | 9.4% | 5 |
| vs LHP68PA | .351 | .667 | 1.079 | 20.7% | 5 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home130PA | .205 | .446 | .784 | 13.5% | 6 |
| Away137PA | .155 | .415 | .743 | 12.0% | 4 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day119PA | .162 | .419 | .755 | 11.4% | 4 |
| 🐾Night148PA | .192 | .438 | .769 | 13.8% | 6 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty92PA | .160 | .370 | .674 | 4 |
| Runners On118PA | .138 | .373 | .695 | 3 |
| RISP64PA | .182 | .455 | .799 | 2 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs81PA | .211 | .579 | .986 | 3 |
| 1 Out104PA | .196 | .414 | .741 | 5 |
| 2 Outs82PA | .125 | .292 | .560 | 2 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.