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Bryan ReynoldsSHB
PIT
🐾 Tonight2:05 PM MT · PNC Park
Home Run
10.2%
+883
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Lake Bachar (RHP) (1.25 HR/9) · park 86
2+ RBI
9.6%
+942
RBI 1+
33.1%
+202
Hits 1+
64.7%
-183
Hits 2+
22.5%
+344
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
110wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
168wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
11.6%
95% CI · 11.3–12.0%
+760
Fair odds
1st AB
3.0%
Through AB2
5.9%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-14%
  • Temp+5%
  • vs SP+7%
  • Contact+13%
  • SP Contact+4%
  • Statcast+8%
  • SP Statcast-4%
  • Discipline-2%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Lake Bachar (RHP)
  • ·88F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0269 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+7% (×1.07) · blended_proj
Park-14% (×0.86)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)
SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)
Discipline-2% (×0.98)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 2 HR
Now
+880
High
+1075
Low
+480
Med
+740
Avg
+774
🐾🐾+880
Low +480🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1075
WARMspot score 99

Just below his HR money zone (+740 to +755). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
10.0
Proj PA
377
HR / PA
.027
ISO
.157
wOBA
.345
wRC+
117
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
13.2
Hard%
38.5
FB%
29.1
Pull%
43.4
Soft%
9.9
GB%
51.1
vs LHP
HR/FB
23.5
Hard%
43.1
FB%
26.2
Pull%
36.9
Soft%
10.8
GB%
56.9
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
8.3
Hard%
35.9
FB%
30.8
Pull%
47.0
Soft%
9.4
GB%
47.9
🐾Home
HR/FB
13.3
Hard%
42.2
FB%
29.4
Pull%
43.1
Soft%
8.8
GB%
47.1
Away
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
33.3
FB%
28.6
Pull%
44.0
Soft%
11.9
GB%
57.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
  • PNC Park suppresses HRs (86)
  • Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (76% of career HRs)
  • 88°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park drag (86)
  • High barrels/PA (5.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.234↓ vs season .25659 PA · 15d
OPS
.777
ISO
.170
HR
2
RBI
5
K-BB
12-9
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12vs MIA410000.250
06-11vs LAD510002.200
06-10vs LAD410001.250
06-09vs LAD4211021.500
💣 422ft · 111.6 EV · Curveball
06-07@ ATL300011—
06-06@ ATL410000.500
06-05@ ATL300010—
06-04@ HOU410101.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvR71PA.224.41913.353.34014.5
🐾SLvR25PA.106.2630.030.07030.2
🐾STvR13PA.100.2940.020.08053.3
🐾CUvR16PA.072.24212.525.07540.0
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.240.36110.552.65325.016829
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.224.41913.353.34014.511071
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.2470.075.05040.016811
vs RHPTONIGHT.106.2630.030.07030.211025
STSweeper
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.125.2480.050.07537.51689
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.100.2940.020.08053.311013
CUCurveball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES.750.56040.060.06030.81689
vs RHPTONIGHT.072.24212.525.07540.011016
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
85
vs RHB
86
🐾vs SHB
85

PNC Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Reynolds.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 32 of 42 career HRs (76%).
1
·
32
2
🐾
10
3
·
4
·
5
·
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.157
Barrel %
8.8
Hard Hit %
44.5
xwOBA
.362
xBA
.256
Brl / PA %
5.40
Max EV (mph)
113.7
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
108.1
Avg EV on HRs
107.0
Avg HR Distance (ft)
415
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
4/4
Avg LA on HRs
28.8°
Brl / PA %
5.40

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Lake Bachar · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
    Use%
    33
    xwOBA
    .419
    Whiff%
    14.5
    HH%
    53.3
    BRL%
    13.3
    Pull%
    40

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • SLSlidervs RHP
    Use%
    24
    xwOBA
    .263
    Whiff%
    30.2
    HH%
    30.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    70

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 25 PA this season.

  • STSweepervs RHP
    Use%
    20
    xwOBA
    .294
    Whiff%
    53.3
    HH%
    20.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    80
Lake Bachar (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF32.98.651.451.29215.9
SL⚡ PUT-AWAY23.95.937.571.25442.4
ST19.511.852.977.27320.8
CU11.90.057.157.23530.8
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball33% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT9.557.152.32114.828
vs RHB7.142.950.25015.819
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY24% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT10.030.090.29152.425
vs RHB0.042.943.17631.212
STSweeper20% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT16.766.767.38416.79
vs RHB9.145.582.22421.620
CUCurveball12% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB0.050.050.18523.58
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT0.066.767.28644.48

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 42.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.37.51🐾.44.40.39.41.22.27.25
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .512). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PIT)
CFLFRF325ft399ft320ftFFCUFFFF
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: PNC Park (325/399/320 ft) · elev 730ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 2
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3
CUCurveball1
Bats S · Switch hitter
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾vs RHP202PA.122.360.7317.3%3
vs LHP100PA.223.541.96110.1%4
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Home162PA.203.531.9889.5%4
Away140PA.108.306.6136.8%3
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day133PA.112.374.7658.0%2
Night169PA.190.458.8438.5%5
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty109PA.164.505.9553
Runners On133PA.185.437.8433
RISP82PA.185.477.8921
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs93PA.148.358.6702
1 Out92PA.108.419.8432
2 Outs117PA.202.479.8983
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-039PA.264.7111.1462
1-020PA.150.500.8500
0-120PA.158.474.8240
2-09PA—.111.2220
0-227PA.296.444.5932
3-010PA——1.0000
1-239PA.084.306.5620
2-245PA.091.227.3611
3-257PA.033.200.7610

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.