Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.9%

+912

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

9.4%

+960

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

62.1%

-164

Hits 2+

20.0%

+401

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

2.5%

95% CI · 2.3–2.7%

+3889

Fair odds

1st AB

0.6%

Through AB2

1.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-2%
Contact-21%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast-15%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0096 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-2% (×0.98) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-21% (×0.79)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-15% (×0.85)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+910

High

+1455

Low

+775

Med

+1060

Avg

+1079

+910

Low +775High +1455

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.8

Proj PA

240

HR / PA

.012

ISO

.104

wOBA

.324

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

3.8

Hard%

27.5

FB%

34.9

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

13.1

GB%

46.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

4.2

Hard%

31.0

FB%

42.1

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

13.8

GB%

38.6

vs RHP

HR/FB

3.4

Hard%

25.3

FB%

30.5

Pull%

41.1

Soft%

12.6

GB%

51.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

3.2

Hard%

22.0

FB%

37.8

Pull%

37.8

Soft%

9.8

GB%

47.6

Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

33.8

FB%

31.4

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

16.9

GB%

45.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.114↓ vs season .24151 PA · 15d

OPS

.371

ISO

.022

RBI

K-BB

14-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs STL	0	0	0	0	—
06-11	@ DET	3	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ DET	3	1	1	1	.333
06-09	@ DET	0	0	1	0	—
06-07	vs KC	4	0	0	3	—
06-06	vs KC	3	1	1	2	.333
06-05	vs KC	4	1	0	1	.500
06-04	vs KC	4	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL36PA	.178	.420	8.0	44.0	52	5.6
🐾SLSlider27PA	.077	.198	0.0	23.5	67	41.7
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.125	.212	—	—	—	18.2
🐾CHChangeupvL13PA	—	.181	0.0	11.1	44	36.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.178	.420	8.0	44.0	52	5.6	145	36
vs RHP	.022	.322	0.0	26.8	54	3.9	68	51

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.080	.194	0.0	22.2	67	35.6	68	27

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.219	0.0	0.0	0	30.0	68	7

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.181	0.0	11.1	44	36.4	145	13
vs RHP	—	.172	0.0	0.0	67	41.7	68	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Martin.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.083

Barrel %

2.6

Hard Hit %

28.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.313

xBA

.241

Brl / PA %

1.80

Max EV (mph)

106.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

102.6

Avg EV on HRs

102.6

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

32.0°

Brl / PA %

1.80

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Matthew Liberatore · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.420
Whiff%
5.6
HH%
44.0
BRL%
8.0
Pull%
52
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlider
Use%
22
xwOBA
.198
Whiff%
41.7
HH%
23.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
67
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
.212
Whiff%
18.2
HH%
0.0
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Matthew Liberatore (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.1	10.7	47.9	48	.438	9.5
SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.3	14.9	43.5	62	.293	28.0
CUCurveball	15.8	7.7	33.3	54	.208	19.2
CHChangeup	15.0	4.8	32.5	67	.386	10.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	58.3	42	.613	13.6	19
vs RHB	9.5	47.6	49	.405	9.1	82

SLSlider⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	48.0	60	.332	33.3	40
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	40.9	64	.261	26.0	46

CUCurveball16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	9.1	36.4	55	.200	21.4	28

CHChangeup15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	4.8	31.0	67	.386	15.0	49

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #1 (xwOBA .408). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 0vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP135PA	.065	.293	.589	1.0%	1
🐾vs LHP91PA	.116	.391	.831	5.0%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home118PA	.079	.304	.626	1.1%	1
Away108PA	.089	.356	.745	4.1%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day95PA	.085	.317	.654	4.6%	1
Night131PA	.081	.336	.702	1.1%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty84PA	.100	.357	.738	1
Runners On91PA	.118	.434	.852	1
RISP49PA	.095	.381	.748	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs81PA	.043	.254	.550	0
1 Out82PA	.151	.424	.839	2
2 Outs63PA	.054	.309	.658	0

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.072	.393	.703	0
1-018PA	.056	.389	.722	0
0-113PA	.416	.833	1.295	1
2-08PA	.125	.500	.875	0
0-212PA	—	.083	.167	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-234PA	—	.156	.362	0
2-224PA	.125	.417	.708	1
3-248PA	—	.258	.779	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.