Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.9%

+491

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.67 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

13.3%

+652

RBI 1+

36.5%

+174

Hits 1+

63.2%

-171

Hits 2+

21.0%

+377

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

21.4%

95% CI · 20.9–21.8%

+368

Fair odds

1st AB

6.4%

Through AB2

12.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Temp+5%
vs SP+15%
Contact+17%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0415 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+15% (×1.15) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+490

High

+960

Low

+350

Med

+722

Avg

+709

+490

Low +350High +960

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.047

ISO

.199

wOBA

.319

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

31.5

FB%

43.3

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

15.2

GB%

41.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.7

Hard%

32.4

FB%

40.8

Pull%

43.7

Soft%

14.1

GB%

38.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

10.4

Hard%

30.8

FB%

44.9

Pull%

33.6

Soft%

15.9

GB%

43.9

Home

HR/FB

8.8

Hard%

28.4

FB%

42.0

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

22.2

GB%

42.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

34.0

FB%

44.3

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

9.3

GB%

41.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Citizens Bank Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (7.4%)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.67 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.211↓ vs season .24720 PA · 15d

OPS

.568

ISO

.157

RBI

K-BB

7-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ CIN	4	1	0	2	0	1	.250
06-16	@ CIN	2	1	1	2	0	1	2.000
💣 421ft · 109.6 EV · Changeup
06-15	@ CIN	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-13	vs ATL	4	1	0	1	0	1	.250
06-10	vs STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs STL	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ SD	4	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-05	@ SD	1	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR6PA	—	.142	0.0	100.0	100	66.7
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR37PA	.182	.379	15.4	50.0	58	30.0
🐾SISinkervR36PA	.229	.314	5.9	41.2	44	11.3
🐾CHChangeupvR8PA	—	.323	0.0	33.3	67	52.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.125	.448	0.0	66.7	50	18.8	115	9
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.142	0.0	100.0	100	66.7	49	6

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.217	0.0	41.7	8	14.6	115	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.182	.379	15.4	50.0	58	30.0	49	37

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.373	25.0	100.0	0	9.1	115	4
vs RHPTONIGHT	.229	.314	5.9	41.2	44	11.3	49	36

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.214	.298	8.7	39.1	61	24.0	115	29
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.323	0.0	33.3	67	52.9	49	8

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

131

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vientos.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 9 of 22 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.161

Barrel %

10.1

Hard Hit %

44.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.314

xBA

.247

Brl / PA %

7.40

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/7

Avg LA on HRs

26.4°

Brl / PA %

7.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.142
Whiff%
66.7
HH%
100.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.379
Whiff%
30.0
HH%
50.0
BRL%
15.4
Pull%
58
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.314
Whiff%
11.3
HH%
41.2
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
44

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.200AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

.400

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.0	—	26.4	—	.232	21.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	24.7	18.0	50.0	56	.450	21.3
SISinker	19.9	10.4	43.5	60	.387	14.6
CHChangeup	12.0	7.1	40.0	71	.275	6.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.2	54.1	62	.504	14.9	51
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	23.1	46.2	39	.330	27.3	22

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.0	50.0	70	.401	11.3	35
vs RHB	14.3	39.3	54	.374	20.6	36

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	65	.292	8.7	28
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .447). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

SISinker2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 20 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP138PA	.146	.323	.540	11.5%	5
vs LHP79PA	.185	.474	.778	9.1%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home99PA	.097	.301	.543	9.1%	2
🐾Away118PA	.212	.442	.696	11.8%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day101PA	.154	.378	.606	11.6%	4
Night116PA	.167	.380	.647	9.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty72PA	.118	.206	.345	2
Runners On103PA	.174	.439	.721	4
RISP70PA	.149	.448	.748	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs65PA	.158	.460	.783	2
1 Out73PA	.192	.368	.573	3
2 Outs79PA	.133	.320	.548	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Thu.