Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.2%

+605

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (LHP) (0.96 HR/9) · park 110

2+ RBI

11.8%

+747

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

62.6%

-168

Hits 2+

20.5%

+389

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.9%

95% CI · 16.4–17.3%

+493

Fair odds

1st AB

4.2%

Through AB2

8.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+10%
Temp+5%
vs SP-8%
Contact-10%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Martín Pérez (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 110)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0422 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-8% (×0.92) · blended_proj

Park+10% (×1.10)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+0% (×1.00)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 1 HR

Now

+605

High

+1455

Low

+345

Med

+590

Avg

+700

🐾+605

Low +345🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1455

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.0

Proj PA

232

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.188

wOBA

.316

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.3

Hard%

32.9

FB%

41.6

Pull%

37.6

Soft%

14.8

GB%

43.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

9.5

Hard%

33.3

FB%

38.9

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

13.0

GB%

37.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

32.6

FB%

43.2

Pull%

36.8

Soft%

15.8

GB%

46.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

30.4

FB%

43.5

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

20.3

GB%

40.6

Away

HR/FB

15.6

Hard%

35.0

FB%

40.0

Pull%

41.3

Soft%

10.0

GB%

45.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citi Field mild HR boost (+10)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (41% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (110)
High barrels/PA (7.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.125↓ vs season .24424 PA · 15d

OPS

.417

ISO

.167

RBI

K-BB

8-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	K	SLG
06-10	vs STL	1	0	0	0	—
06-09	vs STL	1	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ SD	4	0	0	3	—
06-05	@ SD	1	0	0	1	—
06-02	@ SEA	4	0	0	1	—
06-01	@ SEA	1	0	0	1	—
05-31	vs MIA	4	1	0	1	.250
05-30	vs MIA	4	1	2	1	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeupvL23PA	.130	.244	5.9	47.1	65	26.8
🐾SISinkervL4PA	—	.373	25.0	100.0	0	10.0
🐾FCCuttervL8PA	.375	.431	12.5	25.0	63	9.1
🐾CUCurveballvL9PA	.125	.448	0.0	66.7	50	20.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.130	.244	5.9	47.1	65	26.8	96	23
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.377	0.0	33.3	67	50.0	56	7

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.373	25.0	100.0	0	10.0	96	4
vs RHP	.235	.322	6.1	42.4	46	11.7	56	35

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.375	.431	12.5	25.0	63	9.1	96	8
vs RHP	no sample

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.125	.448	0.0	66.7	50	20.0	96	9
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

111

vs SHB

105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Vientos.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 9 of 22 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.155

Barrel %

10.1

Hard Hit %

45.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.312

xBA

.244

Brl / PA %

7.40

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.2

Avg EV on HRs

106.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

406

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

5/7

Avg LA on HRs

26.4°

Brl / PA %

7.40

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
33
xwOBA
.244
Whiff%
26.8
HH%
47.1
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
65
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.373
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
100.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
0
FCCuttervs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.431
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Martín Pérez (LHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Martín Pérez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.8	8.3	23.6	83	.270	18.3
SISinker	29.5	8.9	49.0	75	.403	11.6
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	21.5	7.7	45.7	49	.302	30.0
CUCurveball	9.7	0.0	50.0	80	.325	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	14.3	28.6	86	.161	21.3	19
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.5	22.6	83	.302	15.3	70

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	36.7	77	.437	6.5	36
vs RHB	7.7	57.7	73	.370	14.0	39

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	25	.128	21.4	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	51.4	51	.329	33.3	51

CUCurveball10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	40.0	80	.412	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .447). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 2

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

SISinker2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP133PA	.152	.336	.562	11.8%	5
🐾vs LHP71PA	.159	.420	.702	8.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home95PA	.101	.303	.545	9.5%	2
Away109PA	.200	.419	.667	11.6%	5

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day92PA	.167	.389	.617	12.7%	4
Night112PA	.144	.346	.605	8.6%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty70PA	.121	.212	.355	2
Runners On92PA	.159	.409	.681	3
RISP62PA	.117	.400	.690	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.170	.492	.836	2
1 Out70PA	.197	.379	.593	3
2 Outs73PA	.101	.246	.438	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-025PA	.280	.560	.840	1
1-020PA	.263	.579	.879	1
0-128PA	.039	.308	.629	0
2-05PA	1.400	2.200	3.000	2
0-223PA	—	—	—	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-234PA	.029	.147	.265	0
2-223PA	—	.087	.174	0
3-223PA	.167	.278	.582	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Day · Sat.