Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.9%

+531

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Jack Leiter (1.42 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #4Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

12.7%

+686

RBI 1+

35.9%

+178

Hits 1+

57.2%

-133

Hits 2+

15.6%

+541

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

20.3%

95% CI · 19.8–20.7%

+393

Fair odds

1st AB

5.6%

Through AB2

10.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact+14%
SP Contact+4%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast+2%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0407 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+14% (×1.14)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

SP Statcast allowed+2% (×1.02)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+500

High

+960

Low

+360

Med

+545

Avg

+590

+500

Low +360High +960

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.5

Proj PA

225

HR / PA

.047

ISO

.207

wOBA

.325

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

32.3

FB%

51.6

Pull%

49.7

Soft%

20.5

GB%

32.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

38.6

FB%

50.0

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

18.2

GB%

29.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.1

Hard%

29.9

FB%

52.1

Pull%

53.8

Soft%

21.4

GB%

33.3

Home

HR/FB

10.8

Hard%

32.9

FB%

43.5

Pull%

49.4

Soft%

17.6

GB%

35.3

🐾Away

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

31.6

FB%

60.5

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

23.7

GB%

28.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (71% of career HRs)
Hot streak: 1.003 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
Elite barrel% (12.1)
High barrels/PA (7.5%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.324↑ vs season .21442 PA · 15d

OPS

1.003

ISO

.298

RBI

K-BB

7-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ TEX	5	1	0	2	0	2	.200
06-15	@ TEX	3	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-14	vs STL	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333
06-13	vs STL	4	2	1	1	0	1	1.500
💣 366ft · 100.1 EV · Curveball
06-12	vs STL	3	2	1	2	0	0	1.667
💣 394ft · 107.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-11	@ DET	4	2	0	0	0	2	.500
06-10	@ DET	4	1	1	1	1	0	1.000
💣 444ft · 107.6 EV · Sinker
06-09	@ DET	4	2	0	0	0	0	.750

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball37PA	.194	.274	20.8	44.4	50	36.1
🐾SLSlider27PA	.174	.172	18.8	38.5	56	48.1
🐾CHChangeup20PA	—	.225	7.7	27.3	54	34.4
🐾FCCutter14PA	.090	.451	0.0	50.0	56	41.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.116	0.0	0.0	33	30.0	97	9
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.219	.311	23.8	42.9	52	31.2	78	37

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.182	.172	18.8	37.5	56	39.6	78	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.307	10.0	20.0	60	25.0	97	14
vs RHP	—	.106	0.0	33.3	33	33.3	78	8

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.200	.564	0.0	80.0	60	0.0	97	6
vs RHP	—	.388	0.0	25.0	50	48.0	78	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Lewis.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #4Confirmed3 of 14 HRs · 21%

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 10 of 14 career HRs (71%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.163

Barrel %

12.1

Hard Hit %

41.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.300

xBA

.214

Brl / PA %

7.50

Max EV (mph)

112.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.5

Avg EV on HRs

100.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

382

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/3

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

7.50

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Jack Leiter · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
39
xwOBA
.274
Whiff%
36.1
HH%
44.4
BRL%
20.8
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 37 PA this season.
SLSlider
Use%
18
xwOBA
.172
Whiff%
48.1
HH%
38.5
BRL%
18.8
Pull%
56
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
18
xwOBA
.225
Whiff%
34.4
HH%
27.3
BRL%
7.7
Pull%
54
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 20 PA this season.

Jack Leiter arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	38.5	12.7	42.1	52	.319	16.9
SLSlider	18.2	13.5	51.4	62	.354	26.0
CHChangeup	17.5	11.8	34.7	69	.317	18.4
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.1	3.7	34.6	52	.359	34.8

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	48	.338	21.1	72
vs RHB	6.5	48.4	58	.291	15.3	47

SLSlider18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	19.0	52.4	67	.368	23.7	34
vs RHB	6.2	50.0	56	.317	30.2	33

CHChangeup18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	37.1	74	.383	12.1	49
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	56	.205	26.1	28

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY10% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	35.0	65	.399	35.3	29
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	28.6	14	.259	33.3	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 34.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .400). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SLSlider1

SISinker1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 2.7 games · 11 PA (3 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP115PA	.148	.356	.643	12.2%	4
vs LHP46PA	.200	.400	.704	11.4%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home81PA	.103	.309	.630	12.5%	2
🐾Away80PA	.220	.425	.688	11.5%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day73PA	.185	.385	.673	8.5%	3
Night88PA	.144	.355	.650	15.5%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty51PA	.229	.479	.773	3
Runners On79PA	.077	.262	.566	1
RISP56PA	.023	.205	.526	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs51PA	.272	.477	.752	3
1 Out54PA	.167	.438	.790	2
2 Outs56PA	.061	.204	.454	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.