Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

8.2%

+1120

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Parker Messick (0.90 HR/9) · park 84

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

8.5%

+1075

RBI 1+

32.1%

+212

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.0%

95% CI · 8.7–9.4%

+1005

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP-5%
Contact+12%
SP Contact-9%
Statcast+10%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0256 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-5% (×0.95) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+12% (×1.12)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+10% (×1.10)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+665

High

+4000

Low

+510

Med

+808

Avg

+991

+665

Low +510High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.8

Proj PA

278

HR / PA

.028

ISO

.153

wOBA

.330

wRC+

108

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.7

Hard%

42.5

FB%

30.9

Pull%

29.0

Soft%

9.3

GB%

46.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

32.9

FB%

24.6

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

10.0

GB%

58.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.0

Hard%

46.0

FB%

33.2

Pull%

29.1

Soft%

9.0

GB%

41.7

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

44.6

FB%

30.5

Pull%

24.8

Soft%

9.9

GB%

44.9

Away

HR/FB

18.6

Hard%

40.6

FB%

31.2

Pull%

32.6

Soft%

8.7

GB%

47.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
Parker Messick stingy: only 0.90 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (94% of career HRs)
Park drag (84)
High barrels/PA (5.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.231↓ vs season .25655 PA · 15d

OPS

.792

ISO

.288

RBI

K-BB

17-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs CLE	4	1	0	1	0	2	.500
06-16	vs CLE	3	2	1	1	1	0	1.667
💣 409ft · 103.3 EV · Cutter
06-13	vs PHI	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-12	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-10	@ ATH	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ ATH	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	@ ATH	6	1	1	3	1	0	.667
💣 443ft · 108.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-07	@ COL	5	1	0	2	0	2	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball91PA	.215	.368	13.3	47.7	27	21.3
🐾CHChangeup31PA	.200	.334	0.0	30.4	52	17.5
🐾SISinker53PA	.244	.361	5.4	44.4	43	12.4
🐾CUCurveball27PA	.223	.369	15.4	61.1	77	25.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.188	.345	10.0	30.0	30	18.2	51	22
vs RHP	.218	.375	14.3	54.3	26	16.2	169	70

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.218	.345	0.0	30.0	45	20.4	169	29

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.077	.330	4.8	47.6	48	9.1	51	29
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.429	.398	6.2	37.5	38	10.4	169	26

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.334	.408	18.2	72.7	73	34.8	169	18

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Turang.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed0 of 16 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 15 of 16 career HRs (94%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.206

Barrel %

9.4

Hard Hit %

45.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.363

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

5.60

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

109.6

Avg EV on HRs

105.2

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.1°

Brl / PA %

5.60

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Parker Messick · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
31
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
21.3
HH%
47.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
27
CHChangeup
Use%
25
xwOBA
.334
Whiff%
17.5
HH%
30.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
52
SISinker
Use%
17
xwOBA
.361
Whiff%
12.4
HH%
44.4
BRL%
5.4
Pull%
43

Parker Messick arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.3	8.2	36.2	43	.230	25.0
CHChangeup	24.7	7.7	23.9	60	.234	24.8
SISinker	16.9	5.0	49.1	62	.415	7.1
CUCurveball	11.1	4.2	9.5	63	.252	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	38.9	44	.214	25.8	29
vs RHB	7.3	41.8	42	.236	22.8	91

CHChangeup25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	60.0	80	.256	29.4	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	8.5	25.5	57	.231	25.5	87

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	28.0	60	.328	8.3	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.6	60.0	63	.475	0.0	37

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	11.1	67	.159	0.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.7	26.7	60	.312	0.0	16

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .466). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SLSlider2

CUCurveball2

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 19 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP223PA	.253	.555	.974	10.8%	10
vs LHP81PA	.086	.257	.532	6.1%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home163PA	.232	.551	.967	13.2%	5
Away141PA	.175	.377	.717	4.9%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day107PA	.223	.482	.882	9.4%	5
Night197PA	.198	.467	.838	9.7%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty99PA	.277	.542	.926	6
Runners On136PA	.231	.537	.962	5
RISP79PA	.305	.627	1.095	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs109PA	.098	.315	.633	1
1 Out102PA	.270	.517	.850	6
2 Outs93PA	.268	.620	1.125	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.