Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.1%

+664

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 108

Batting #3Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.2%

+793

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

68.5%

-218

Hits 2+

26.7%

+274

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)

131wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

107wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+).

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

13.9%

95% CI · 13.5–14.3%

+618

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

7.0%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact-2%
SP Contact-3%
Statcast+8%
SP Statcast-2%

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0346 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+8% (×1.08)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-3% (×0.97)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+520

High

+1005

Low

+350

Med

+535

Avg

+577

+520

Low +350High +1005

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.6

Proj PA

240

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.179

wOBA

.343

wRC+

120

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

9.8

Hard%

35.3

FB%

39.6

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

8.7

GB%

39.1

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

33.8

FB%

35.0

Pull%

36.3

Soft%

10.0

GB%

41.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.3

Hard%

36.2

FB%

42.5

Pull%

37.0

Soft%

7.9

GB%

37.8

Home

HR/FB

11.4

Hard%

36.2

FB%

37.9

Pull%

41.4

Soft%

9.5

GB%

37.9

🐾Away

HR/FB

7.9

Hard%

34.1

FB%

41.8

Pull%

30.8

Soft%

7.7

GB%

40.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (93% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (6.7%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.282→ vs season .28043 PA · 15d

OPS

.813

ISO

.205

RBI

K-BB

5-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ SEA	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-16	@ SEA	4	1	0	0	0	0	.250
06-14	vs SD	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	vs SD	2	0	0	1	1	0	—
06-11	vs SEA	3	2	0	3	1	1	1.000
06-07	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-06	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ TOR	4	4	1	5	1	0	2.250
💣 404ft · 103.1 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball78PA	.261	.329	8.3	47.3	53	10.3
🐾SISinker31PA	.172	.401	14.8	46.2	48	11.1
🐾STSweeper14PA	.077	.365	0.0	54.5	73	16.1
🐾SLSlider17PA	.250	.314	5.6	40.0	44	13.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.259	.313	8.3	41.7	46	2.2	107	31
vs RHP	.233	.338	8.3	52.8	58	5.7	131	53

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.100	.540	22.2	66.7	44	13.0	107	12
vs RHP	.200	.321	11.1	38.9	50	8.8	131	20

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.167	.397	0.0	80.0	100	12.5	107	6
vs RHP	—	.342	0.0	33.3	50	20.8	131	9

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.420	10.0	40.0	30	16.7	107	10
vs RHP	.250	.252	0.0	37.5	63	10.5	131	9

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rutschman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #3Confirmed1 of 27 HRs · 4%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 25 of 27 career HRs (93%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.208

Barrel %

8.9

Hard Hit %

45.0

xwOBA

.360

xBA

.280

Brl / PA %

6.70

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

399

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.9°

Brl / PA %

6.70

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.329
Whiff%
10.3
HH%
47.3
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
53
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.401
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
46.2
BRL%
14.8
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.365
Whiff%
16.1
HH%
54.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
73

Career vs Bryan Woo

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.667AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

2.334

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .433). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter3

FF4-Seam Fastball2

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats S · Switch hitter

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 33 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP144PA	.228	.496	.836	9.8%	5
vs LHP80PA	.171	.414	.739	7.1%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home122PA	.242	.524	.893	10.5%	5
🐾Away102PA	.170	.404	.698	6.9%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day100PA	.114	.273	.513	5.8%	2
Night124PA	.285	.624	1.035	11.5%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty75PA	.220	.485	.818	3
Runners On116PA	.258	.535	.880	5
RISP64PA	.254	.527	.855	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs56PA	.105	.313	.617	1
1 Out79PA	.280	.574	.941	5
2 Outs89PA	.210	.469	.795	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.