Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

21.0%

+377

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 136

2+ RBI

15.5%

+544

RBI 1+

38.5%

+160

Hits 1+

70.0%

-234

Hits 2+

28.5%

+251

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

150wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

114wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

25.6%

95% CI · 25.1–26.1%

+290

Fair odds

1st AB

7.6%

Through AB2

14.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+36%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+15%
SP Contact+2%
Statcast+11%
SP Statcast+8%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 136)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0333 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park+36% (×1.36)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+15% (×1.15)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+11% (×1.11)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 1 HR

Now

+375

High

+1190

Low

+345

Med

+685

Avg

+695

🐾+375

Low +345🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1190

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.9

Proj PA

326

HR / PA

.036

ISO

.183

wOBA

.349

wRC+

123

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

39.1

FB%

39.7

Pull%

37.2

Soft%

9.0

GB%

37.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

38.3

FB%

38.3

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

11.7

GB%

38.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

39.6

FB%

40.6

Pull%

39.6

Soft%

7.3

GB%

37.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

39.3

FB%

42.7

Pull%

40.4

Soft%

10.1

GB%

34.8

Away

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

35.7

FB%

37.1

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

8.6

GB%

41.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Oriole Park at Camden Yards is a hitter's haven (+36 for SHB)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FC, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (93% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (136)
High barrels/PA (7.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.282↓ vs season .29049 PA · 15d

OPS

.875

ISO

.205

RBI

K-BB

5-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SD	2	0	0	1	1	0	—
06-11	vs SEA	3	2	0	3	1	1	1.000
06-07	@ TOR	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-06	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ TOR	4	4	1	5	1	0	2.250
💣 404ft · 103.1 EV · 4-Seamer
06-04	@ BOS	5	1	0	1	0	1	.200
06-03	@ BOS	5	2	0	1	0	0	.800
06-02	@ BOS	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR49PA	.256	.357	9.4	56.2	66	3.8
🐾FCCuttervR12PA	1.100	.667	50.0	75.0	88	21.1
🐾SISinkervR20PA	.200	.321	11.1	38.9	50	9.1
🐾CUCurveballvR10PA	—	.303	0.0	42.9	71	22.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.259	.313	8.3	41.7	46	2.2	114	31
vs RHPTONIGHT	.256	.357	9.4	56.2	66	3.8	150	49

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	1.100	.667	50.0	75.0	88	21.1	150	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.100	.540	22.2	66.7	44	9.5	114	12
vs RHPTONIGHT	.200	.321	11.1	38.9	50	9.1	150	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.303	0.0	42.9	71	22.2	150	10

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

vs RHB

🐾vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rutschman.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 25 of 27 career HRs (93%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.222

Barrel %

9.6

Hard Hit %

47.4

xwOBA

.374

xBA

.290

Brl / PA %

7.20

Max EV (mph)

110.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.4

Avg EV on HRs

101.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

399

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/7

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/7

Avg LA on HRs

29.9°

Brl / PA %

7.20

Sampled across 7 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.357
Whiff%
3.8
HH%
56.2
BRL%
9.4
Pull%
66
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.667
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
75.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
88
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.321
Whiff%
9.1
HH%
38.9
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
50

Career vs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

.666

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .433). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

7 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FC🐾Cutter3

FF4-Seam Fastball2

SISinker1

SLSlider1

Bats S · Switch hitter

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP133PA	.250	.534	.895	10.9%	5
vs LHP79PA	.174	.420	.749	7.4%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home118PA	.252	.545	.926	11.1%	5
Away94PA	.186	.430	.739	7.6%	3

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day96PA	.119	.286	.536	6.0%	2
Night116PA	.307	.663	1.094	12.9%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty69PA	.242	.516	.864	3
Runners On112PA	.268	.557	.914	5
RISP62PA	.264	.547	.886	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs54PA	.109	.326	.641	1
1 Out75PA	.297	.594	.967	5
2 Outs83PA	.227	.507	.856	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-016PA	.250	.562	.875	0
1-013PA	.077	.231	.385	0
0-117PA	.118	.353	.588	0
2-04PA	—	.500	1.000	0
0-214PA	.072	.143	.214	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-235PA	.114	.314	.514	1
2-236PA	.382	.735	1.069	3
3-234PA	.182	.364	.834	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.