Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.3%

+601

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Aaron Nola (RHP) (1.50 HR/9) · park 84

2+ RBI

11.8%

+744

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

60.2%

-151

Hits 2+

18.1%

+451

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.9%

95% CI · 8.6–9.2%

+1027

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-16%
vs SP+12%
Contact-8%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+22%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Aaron Nola (RHP)

·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0209 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+12% (×1.12) · blended_proj

Park-16% (×0.84)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+22% (×1.22)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+600

High

+995

Low

+490

Med

+628

Avg

+669

+600

Low +490High +995

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

6.6

Proj PA

282

HR / PA

.023

ISO

.137

wOBA

.300

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

42.2

FB%

27.7

Pull%

31.4

Soft%

10.8

GB%

57.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.0

FB%

16.7

Pull%

40.0

Soft%

12.0

GB%

70.8

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

12.5

Hard%

46.8

FB%

31.2

Pull%

28.6

Soft%

10.4

GB%

53.2

🐾Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

39.2

FB%

26.0

Pull%

21.6

Soft%

13.7

GB%

52.0

Away

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

41.8

FB%

27.3

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

9.1

GB%

61.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
14.7% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
50.0% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (CU, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .846 OPS over last 15 days
82°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (84)
Elite barrel% (14.7)
High barrels/PA (7.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.289↑ vs season .23043 PA · 15d

OPS

.846

ISO

.185

RBI

K-BB

12-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs PHI	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-09	@ ATH	4	3	0	0	1	1.250
06-08	@ ATH	6	0	0	0	3	—
06-07	@ COL	5	3	2	0	1	1.400
06-05	@ COL	5	1	1	0	1	.200
06-04	vs SF	1	0	0	1	1	—
06-03	vs SF	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-02	vs SF	3	2	0	1	0	1.000

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveballvR14PA	.308	.411	33.3	77.8	78	17.4
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR63PA	.154	.368	25.9	70.4	56	29.6
🐾SISinkervR10PA	.333	.634	20.0	80.0	20	—
🐾CHChangeupvR19PA	.125	.288	9.1	27.3	55	54.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.308	.411	33.3	77.8	78	17.4	123	14

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.117	.291	0.0	33.3	56	19.2	90	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.154	.368	25.9	70.4	56	29.6	123	63

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.307	0.0	30.0	60	16.0	90	17
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.333	.634	20.0	80.0	20	0.0	123	10

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.125	.288	9.1	27.3	55	54.1	123	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

108

vs SHB

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mitchell.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#1#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.152

Barrel %

14.7

Hard Hit %

50.0

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.331

xBA

.230

Brl / PA %

7.30

Max EV (mph)

115.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

115.5

Avg EV on HRs

110.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

413

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/2

Avg LA on HRs

23.0°

Brl / PA %

7.30

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Aaron Nola · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
34
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
17.4
HH%
77.8
BRL%
33.3
Pull%
78
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
70.4
BRL%
25.9
Pull%
56
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.634
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
80.0
BRL%
20.0
Pull%
20
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Aaron Nola (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Aaron Nola (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	34.2	—	25.8	—	.209	22.7
FF4-Seam Fastball	25.0	18.8	52.3	58	.453	21.9
SISinker	19.5	11.9	45.0	62	.409	13.3
CHChangeup	12.0	7.4	37.5	74	.281	6.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	55.6	64	.513	15.2	50
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.0	50.0	42	.320	28.1	21

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.9	52.9	77	.442	8.5	28
vs RHB	16.0	40.0	52	.382	21.2	33

CHChangeup12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.5	31.8	68	.300	9.5	27
vs RHB	20.0	60.0	100	.187	0.0	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .510). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP161PA	.180	.432	.786	18.8%	3
vs LHP49PA	.051	.282	.636	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home105PA	.102	.352	.708	10.9%	1
Away105PA	.200	.444	.796	17.9%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day86PA	.224	.493	.905	21.7%	2
🐾Night124PA	.108	.342	.657	9.2%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty72PA	.129	.355	.688	1
Runners On103PA	.171	.432	.785	2
RISP63PA	.264	.585	.998	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs68PA	.187	.441	.784	0
1 Out69PA	.145	.468	.845	2
2 Outs73PA	.123	.281	.623	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-019PA	.158	.526	.895	0
1-017PA	.177	.412	.647	0
0-111PA	.300	.900	1.536	0
2-06PA	1.000	1.667	2.333	1
0-216PA	—	—	—	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-242PA	.049	.122	.193	0
2-244PA	.046	.182	.318	0
3-233PA	—	.105	.590	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.