← Back
Brandon MarshLHB
PHI
🐾 Tonight5:10 PM MT · American Family Field
Home Run
10.0%
+899
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Shane Drohan (LHP) (0.48 HR/9) · park 84
2+ RBI
9.5%
+952
RBI 1+
33.0%
+203
Hits 1+
70.2%
-236
Hits 2+
28.7%
+248
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
8.8%
95% CI · 8.5–9.1%
+1041
Fair odds
1st AB
2.2%
Through AB2
4.4%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-16%
  • vs SP-6%
  • Contact+9%
  • SP Contact-9%
  • Statcast+2%
  • SP Statcast+1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Shane Drohan (LHP)
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0267 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj
Park-16% (×0.84)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)
SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 12 games · 4 HR
Now
+900
High
+1280
Low
+510
Med
+750
Avg
+791
🐾🐾🐾🐾+900
Low +510🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1280
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 4× priced here.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-13 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
7.6
Proj PA
324
HR / PA
.024
ISO
.143
wOBA
.328
wRC+
106
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-13 · FG
Season
HR/FB
13.8
Hard%
35.9
FB%
34.3
Pull%
36.5
Soft%
11.2
GB%
40.8
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
6.7
Hard%
23.5
FB%
45.5
Pull%
35.3
Soft%
14.7
GB%
36.4
vs RHP
HR/FB
16.3
Hard%
39.0
FB%
31.6
Pull%
36.8
Soft%
10.3
GB%
41.9
Home
HR/FB
14.8
Hard%
36.3
FB%
30.0
Pull%
31.9
Soft%
5.5
GB%
40.0
🐾Away
HR/FB
12.5
Hard%
35.0
FB%
40.0
Pull%
41.3
Soft%
17.5
GB%
41.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
  • American Family Field suppresses HRs (84)
  • Shane Drohan stingy: only 0.48 HR/9
  • Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (40% of career HRs)
  • Hot streak: .925 OPS over last 15 days
  • 82°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Park drag (84)
  • High barrels/PA (5.4%)
  • Pitcher suppresses HR (0.48 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.304↑ vs season .29150 PA · 15d
OPS
.925
ISO
.261
HR
3
RBI
7
K-BB
17-3
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ MIL300002—
06-10@ TOR400011—
06-09@ TOR410103.500
06-08@ TOR300001—
06-07vs CHW4212111.250
💣 383ft · 100.3 EV · Curveball
06-06vs CHW4211001.500
💣 389ft · 98.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-05vs CHW4112021.000
💣 401ft · 104.5 EV · Sinker
06-04vs SD410102.250
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
🐾FFvL18PA—.2090.040.03030.8
🐾SIvL14PA.333.5668.350.05817.4
🐾SLvL12PA.333.18916.750.05047.4
🐾FC10PA.200.4489.150.06414.7
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT—.2090.040.03030.811318
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.224.46211.563.5468.014564
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT.333.5668.350.05817.411314
vs RHP.227.4539.538.1570.014524
SLSlider
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPTONIGHT.333.18916.750.05047.411312
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.218.24314.342.97125.014523
FCCutter
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHP.181.4489.145.56414.714511
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
84
vs RHB
108
vs SHB
96

American Family Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Marsh.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).
1
·
2
·
3
·
1
4
🐾
2
5
🐾
2
6
🐾
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#5#6#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.176
Barrel %
7.6
Hard Hit %
47.1
Pull % (HRs)
50
xwOBA
.334
xBA
.291
Brl / PA %
5.40
Max EV (mph)
110.1
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
107.0
Avg EV on HRs
103.7
Avg HR Distance (ft)
398
HRs in sample
4
No-doubters (110+ mph)
0/4
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/4
Avg LA on HRs
30.3°
Brl / PA %
5.40

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Shane Drohan · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Neutral matchup
  • FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
    Use%
    28
    xwOBA
    .209
    Whiff%
    30.8
    HH%
    40.0
    BRL%
    0.0
    Pull%
    30

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 18 PA this season.

  • SISinkervs LHP
    Use%
    20
    xwOBA
    .566
    Whiff%
    17.4
    HH%
    50.0
    BRL%
    8.3
    Pull%
    58

    🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

  • SLSlidervs LHP
    Use%
    18
    xwOBA
    .189
    Whiff%
    47.4
    HH%
    50.0
    BRL%
    16.7
    Pull%
    50

    ⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 12 PA this season.

Shane Drohan (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)
PitchUse%BRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%
FF28.313.652.646.22624.1
SI⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT19.814.353.664.37625.0
SL18.43.425.976.21622.0
FC15.710.729.264.3579.1
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball28% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT18.245.555.32218.218
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY9.145.536.16425.527
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY20% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB8.341.783.31016.713
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT18.862.550.424—18
SLSlider18% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY5.326.368.19329.028
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT0.030.090.26710.314
FCCutter16% use
SplitBRL%-AHH%-APull%xwOBAPut%PA
vs LHB20.020.080.372—6
vs RHB8.734.861.3539.125

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 25.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

.23.34.24.35.52🐾.38.27.38.24
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .518). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIL)
CFLFRF344ft400ft345ftCUSIFFFF
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: American Family Field (344/400/345 ft) · elev 635ft
4 HRs this season
vs RHP 4vs LHP 0
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2
CUCurveball1
SISinker1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP187PA.183.514.8789.0%7
🐾vs LHP57PA.154.442.7755.1%1
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home130PA.184.567.9828.8%4
🐾Away114PA.169.421.7107.3%4
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Day96PA.303.6291.00410.7%6
🐾Night148PA.094.413.7586.4%2
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty73PA.188.536.9203
Runners On109PA.192.505.8544
RISP53PA.267.600.9773
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs95PA.216.557.9463
1 Out71PA.182.470.7663
2 Outs78PA.123.452.8242
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-029PA.172.6551.1381
1-022PA.272.7271.1821
0-122PA.238.6191.0280
2-011PA.300.7001.0641
0-229PA.138.310.4831
3-02PA——1.0000
1-249PA.021.188.3710
2-233PA—.156.3080
3-217PA.375.6251.2721

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.