Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.2%

+559

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Sean Manaea (1.10 HR/9) · park 131

Batting #5Projected lineup

2+ RBI

12.3%

+710

RBI 1+

35.6%

+181

Hits 1+

69.9%

-232

Hits 2+

28.3%

+253

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.6%

95% CI · 18.2–19.1%

+436

Fair odds

1st AB

5.2%

Through AB2

10.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
Temp+5%
vs SP+11%
Contact+13%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·88F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0274 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+11% (×1.11) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+13% (×1.13)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+1% (×1.01)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1255

High

+1255

Low

+375

Med

+688

Avg

+766

+1255

Low +375High +1255

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

7.0

Proj PA

242

HR / PA

.029

ISO

.157

wOBA

.326

wRC+

104

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

36.2

FB%

36.7

Pull%

39.4

Soft%

13.0

GB%

40.4

vs LHP

HR/FB

12.0

Hard%

27.1

FB%

43.1

Pull%

39.0

Soft%

16.9

GB%

43.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

39.0

FB%

34.8

Pull%

39.6

Soft%

11.8

GB%

39.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

21.1

Hard%

36.2

FB%

33.0

Pull%

35.3

Soft%

8.6

GB%

38.3

Away

HR/FB

13.5

Hard%

36.2

FB%

40.0

Pull%

43.1

Soft%

16.9

GB%

42.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #5 (40% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .903 OPS over last 15 days
89°F — ball flies in warm air
19 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (5.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.291→ vs season .28959 PA · 15d

OPS

.903

ISO

.273

RBI

K-BB

19-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs MIA	4	1	0	1	0	2	.250
06-16	vs MIA	3	1	1	2	1	1	1.333
💣 402ft · 104.4 EV · Sinker
06-15	vs MIA	5	2	0	0	0	2	.600
06-14	@ MIL	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	@ MIL	5	3	0	1	0	0	.600
06-12	@ MIL	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-10	@ TOR	4	0	0	0	1	1	—
06-09	@ TOR	4	1	0	1	0	3	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball85PA	.155	.385	9.2	54.1	45	19.6
🐾STSweeper27PA	—	.194	6.2	43.8	63	38.0
🐾SISinker42PA	.325	.474	10.5	48.6	55	10.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.227	0.0	33.3	33	31.9	99	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.210	.436	11.3	62.3	47	11.0	146	68

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.169	0.0	11.1	78	30.8	99	12
vs RHP	—	.214	14.3	85.7	43	36.0	146	16

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.250	.470	6.7	60.0	60	14.8	99	18
vs RHP	.334	.479	13.0	39.1	52	0.0	146	27

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Marsh.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #5Projected2 of 5 HRs · 40%

🐾 Hottest from spot #5 — 2 of 5 career HRs (40%).

🐾

Hot spots:#5#6#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.177

Barrel %

7.5

Hard Hit %

46.8

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.333

xBA

.289

Brl / PA %

5.30

Max EV (mph)

110.1

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.0

Avg EV on HRs

103.7

Avg HR Distance (ft)

398

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/4

Avg LA on HRs

30.3°

Brl / PA %

5.30

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Sean Manaea · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.385
Whiff%
19.6
HH%
54.1
BRL%
9.2
Pull%
45
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
32
xwOBA
.194
Whiff%
38.0
HH%
43.8
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 27 PA this season.
SISinker
Use%
19
xwOBA
.474
Whiff%
10.0
HH%
48.6
BRL%
10.5
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Sean Manaea

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Sean Manaea arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	37.2	11.5	51.0	40	.330	18.8
STSweeper	32.2	9.5	28.9	86	.279	20.2
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.7	2.5	32.5	55	.326	28.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.3	50.0	50	.376	23.1	20
vs RHB	12.5	52.5	38	.316	18.0	64

STSweeper32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.4	38.5	85	.202	26.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	24.1	86	.334	15.0	43

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	50	.264	27.3	23
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	60	.376	23.1	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .518). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

CUCurveball1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP200PA	.192	.529	.899	9.0%	8
vs LHP66PA	.131	.410	.728	4.4%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home143PA	.197	.576	.989	9.2%	5
Away123PA	.155	.414	.707	6.6%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day104PA	.279	.588	.944	10.0%	6
Night162PA	.113	.444	.802	6.7%	3

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty81PA	.181	.519	.889	3
Runners On116PA	.208	.538	.900	5
RISP56PA	.250	.604	.997	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs102PA	.202	.532	.914	3
1 Out80PA	.213	.520	.833	4
2 Outs84PA	.114	.443	.812	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.