Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

14.3%

+599

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 131

2+ RBI

11.9%

+743

RBI 1+

35.1%

+184

Hits 1+

59.8%

-149

Hits 2+

17.8%

+461

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

18.0%

95% CI · 17.6–18.4%

+455

Fair odds

1st AB

4.6%

Through AB2

8.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+31%
vs SP-13%
Contact-9%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast+5%
SP Statcast-1%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0400 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj

Park+31% (×1.31)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+5% (×1.05)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 16 games · 1 HR

Now

+525

High

+1025

Low

+440

Med

+532

Avg

+578

🐾+525

Low +440🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1025

WARMspot score 98

Just below his HR money zone (+440 to +440). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+4402026-05-21vs ATLbook line

HomeBat 4thoff RHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.1

Proj PA

321

HR / PA

.041

ISO

.194

wOBA

.330

wRC+

107

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.2

Hard%

37.8

FB%

41.5

Pull%

50.4

Soft%

15.1

GB%

43.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

25.0

Pull%

60.7

Soft%

17.9

GB%

57.1

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

40.7

FB%

46.7

Pull%

47.3

Soft%

14.3

GB%

38.9

Home

HR/FB

14.8

Hard%

37.9

FB%

46.6

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

19.0

GB%

36.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.5

Hard%

37.7

FB%

36.7

Pull%

50.8

Soft%

11.5

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for LHB)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SI)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (44% of career HRs)
Park boost (131)
High barrels/PA (5.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.205↓ vs season .22853 PA · 15d

OPS

.740

ISO

.227

RBI

K-BB

17-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ PIT	3	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-12	@ PIT	4	2	0	1	1	0	.500
06-11	vs ARI	2	0	0	0	2	2	—
06-10	vs ARI	3	1	1	3	0	1	1.333
💣 425ft · 110.8 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs ARI	5	1	0	2	0	1	.400
06-07	vs TB	2	1	0	1	1	0	.500
06-06	vs TB	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-05	vs TB	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR56PA	.120	.336	13.2	50.0	61	28.6
🐾SISinkervR15PA	.166	.472	22.2	66.7	67	19.2
🐾STSweeper11PA	.100	.214	0.0	28.6	57	29.6
🐾FSSplit-FingervR16PA	.215	.329	0.0	71.4	100	43.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.246	0.0	62.5	75	29.4	33	10
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.120	.336	13.2	50.0	61	28.6	104	56

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.091	.309	0.0	33.3	89	11.1	33	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.166	.472	22.2	66.7	67	19.2	104	15

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.167	.334	0.0	40.0	60	23.1	33	7
vs RHP	no sample

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.215	.329	0.0	71.4	100	43.3	104	16

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

131

vs RHB

vs SHB

111

Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Stowers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 4 of 9 career HRs (44%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.159

Barrel %

8.4

Hard Hit %

49.6

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.314

xBA

.228

Brl / PA %

5.00

Max EV (mph)

110.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

103.1

Avg EV on HRs

103.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

380

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/1

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/1

Avg LA on HRs

38.0°

Brl / PA %

5.00

Sampled across 1 home run. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.336
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
50.0
BRL%
13.2
Pull%
61
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.472
Whiff%
19.2
HH%
66.7
BRL%
22.2
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.214
Whiff%
29.6
HH%
28.6
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
57

Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.125AVG · limited (8 PA)

OPS

.250

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY	38.9	9.1	43.2	46	.244	22.7
SISinker	16.7	10.3	35.9	49	.321	14.3
STSweeper	13.5	5.9	23.5	71	.341	17.1
FSSplit-Finger	12.7	4.2	29.2	75	.257	19.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	41.2	47	.258	19.1	53
vs RHB	10.0	50.0	40	.208	31.0	20

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.117	15.4	6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.4	40.0	51	.354	13.6	39

STSweeper14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	57.1	71	.633	0.0	8
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	70	.204	20.7	17

FSSplit-Finger13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.3	31.6	74	.326	9.4	22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	20.0	80	.119	42.9	11

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .579). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft

1 HRs this season

vs RHP 1vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FSSplitter1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 34 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP158PA	.183	.409	.734	10.5%	5
vs LHP43PA	.077	.256	.489	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home99PA	.188	.400	.713	8.2%	4
🐾Away102PA	.132	.352	.649	7.9%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day90PA	.117	.299	.588	5.7%	1
Night111PA	.192	.434	.752	9.9%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty61PA	.109	.345	.656	1
Runners On89PA	.221	.442	.749	3
RISP54PA	.128	.298	.543	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs69PA	.140	.333	.657	1
1 Out68PA	.100	.267	.517	2
2 Outs64PA	.237	.525	.869	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.