Home Run
20.2%
+396
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs Sean Sullivan (LHP) (1.20 HR/9) · park 114
Batting #1Confirmed lineup
2+ RBI
15.1%
+563
RBI 1+
38.1%
+163
Hits 1+
69.0%
-223
Hits 2+
27.3%
+267
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter48.0%
95% CI · 47.4–48.6%
+108
Fair odds
1st AB
15.9%
Through AB2
30.0%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park+14%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP+34%
- Lineup+3%
- Contact+23%
- Statcast+24%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Sean Sullivan (LHP)
- ·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
- ·91F game
- ·Big bats hitting behind
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0599 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)+34% (×1.34) · blended_proj
Park+14% (×1.14)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup+3% (×1.03)
Contact (batted-ball)+23% (×1.23)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 15 games · 1 HR
Now
+395
High
+585
Low
+230
Med
+410
Avg
+395
🐾+395
Low +230🐾 HR money zoneHigh +585
🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100
Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.
⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.
Recent — tap a game
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
21.7
Proj PA
322
HR / PA
.067
ISO
.290
wOBA
.390
wRC+
147
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
17.3
Hard%
40.9
FB%
48.3
Pull%
39.4
Soft%
16.7
GB%
32.0
🐾vs LHP
HR/FB
33.3
Hard%
44.4
FB%
38.9
Pull%
38.9
Soft%
13.0
GB%
37.0
vs RHP
HR/FB
13.0
Hard%
39.6
FB%
51.7
Pull%
39.6
Soft%
18.1
GB%
30.2
🐾Home
HR/FB
15.9
Hard%
45.6
FB%
48.9
Pull%
37.8
Soft%
18.9
GB%
32.2
Away
HR/FB
18.5
Hard%
37.2
FB%
47.8
Pull%
40.7
Soft%
15.0
GB%
31.9
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
5.0 🐾ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
- Las Vegas Ballpark mild HR boost (+14)
- Elite power: .252 ISO
- 14.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (41% of career HRs)
- 92°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (114)
- Elite barrel% (14.8)
- High barrels/PA (10.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.218↓ vs season .28356 PA · 15d
OPS
.759
ISO
.309
HR
5
RBI
8
K-BB
9-1
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | vs COL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .800 |
| 06-10 | vs MIL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 |
| 06-09 | vs MIL | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 |
| 06-08 | vs MIL | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .857 |
| 💣 — · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-07 | @ HOU | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .200 |
| 06-06 | @ HOU | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .200 |
| 06-05 | @ HOU | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 06-04 | @ CHC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
| 💣 358ft · 98.0 EV · Splitter💣 369ft · 98.7 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CUvL7PA | .333 | .534 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 100 | 37.5 |
| SIvL10PA | .666 | .649 | 22.2 | 88.9 | 44 | 7.1 |
| FFvL29PA | .462 | .333 | 16.7 | 44.4 | 44 | 17.9 |
| FC23PA | .143 | .390 | 10.5 | 31.6 | 42 | 28.8 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT | .333 | .534 | 25.0 | 100.0 | 100 | 37.5 | 205 | 7 |
| vs RHP | — | .413 | 14.3 | 57.1 | 71 | 21.4 | 117 | 10 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT | .666 | .649 | 22.2 | 88.9 | 44 | 7.1 | 205 | 10 |
| vs RHP | .219 | .404 | 11.4 | 48.6 | 54 | 10.3 | 117 | 45 |
FF4-Seam Fastball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHPTONIGHT | .462 | .333 | 16.7 | 44.4 | 44 | 17.9 | 205 | 29 |
| vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES | .467 | .490 | 30.0 | 55.0 | 45 | 23.2 | 117 | 35 |
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .143 | .390 | 10.5 | 31.6 | 42 | 27.7 | 117 | 23 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
95
🐾vs RHB
114
vs SHB
104
Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Langeliers.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Confirmed5 of 39 HRs · 13%
🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 16 of 39 career HRs (41%).
5
1
🐾
6
2
·
4
3
·
16
4
🐾
6
5
·
2
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#4
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.
Season Statcast
ISO
.252
Barrel %
14.8
Hard Hit %
44.8
Pull % (HRs)
77
xwOBA
.377
xBA
.283
Brl / PA %
10.60
Max EV (mph)
114.4
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
117.3
Avg EV on HRs
107.9
Avg HR Distance (ft)
415
HRs in sample
13
No-doubters (110+ mph)
2/13
Crushed (105+ mph)
11/13
Avg LA on HRs
27.5°
Brl / PA %
10.60
Sampled across 13 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft
13 HRs this season
vs RHP 9vs LHP 4
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6
SISinker3
STSweeper2
KCKnuckle-Curve1
FSSplitter1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP211PA | .210 | .468 | .795 | 13.6% | 10 |
| 🐾vs LHP73PA | .368 | .721 | 1.118 | 16.1% | 7 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home128PA | .254 | .579 | .977 | 15.6% | 7 |
| Away156PA | .250 | .500 | .801 | 13.2% | 10 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day98PA | .191 | .539 | .937 | 8.3% | 4 |
| 🐾Night186PA | .284 | .533 | .850 | 17.4% | 13 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty116PA | .289 | .577 | .939 | 8 |
| Runners On127PA | .195 | .434 | .749 | 6 |
| RISP64PA | .197 | .393 | .674 | 3 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs77PA | .329 | .699 | 1.089 | 6 |
| 1 Out113PA | .196 | .402 | .685 | 5 |
| 2 Outs94PA | .253 | .554 | .937 | 6 |
Count
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-045PA | .205 | .591 | .991 | 2 |
| 1-023PA | .773 | 1.318 | 1.883 | 5 |
| 0-128PA | .223 | .556 | .913 | 1 |
| 2-07PA | .571 | 1.000 | 1.429 | 1 |
| 0-228PA | .250 | .393 | .536 | 2 |
| 3-06PA | — | — | 1.000 | 0 |
| 1-233PA | .151 | .333 | .515 | 1 |
| 2-235PA | .143 | .257 | .371 | 1 |
| 3-233PA | .182 | .318 | .742 | 1 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Fri.