Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

19.3%

+419

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 114

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

14.6%

+585

RBI 1+

37.6%

+166

Hits 1+

68.7%

-219

Hits 2+

26.9%

+272

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

29.4%

95% CI · 28.9–29.9%

+240

Fair odds

1st AB

6.2%

Through AB2

11.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+14%
vs SP-35%
Lineup+3%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-12%
Statcast+24%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 114)
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0598 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+14% (×1.14)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+295

High

+645

Low

+195

Med

+358

Avg

+392

🐾+295

Low +195🐾 HR money zoneHigh +645

WARMspot score 96

Just below his HR money zone (+235 to +235). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+2352026-07-01vs LADbook line

HomeBat 1stoff LHPSlider

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

17.9

Proj PA

247

HR / PA

.072

ISO

.301

wOBA

.388

wRC+

148

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.9

Hard%

41.4

FB%

46.6

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

15.0

GB%

33.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

27.3

Hard%

46.3

FB%

40.2

Pull%

42.7

Soft%

11.0

GB%

39.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

39.1

FB%

49.5

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

16.8

GB%

31.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

45.0

FB%

47.3

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

15.5

GB%

33.3

Away

HR/FB

17.5

Hard%

38.0

FB%

46.0

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

14.6

GB%

34.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Sutter Health Park mild HR boost (+14)
14.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (SI, CU, FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (41% of career HRs)
Already has 2 HR / 7 RBI off this SP in 15 PA
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (114)
Elite barrel% (14.4)
High barrels/PA (10.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.233↓ vs season .28163 PA · 15d

OPS

.753

ISO

.250

RBI

K-BB

11-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	vs PIT	5	1	0	0	0	1	.200
06-15	vs PIT	4	1	0	0	1	0	.250
06-13	vs COL	4	1	0	0	1	1	.500
06-12	vs COL	5	1	1	1	0	0	.800
💣 450ft · 104.2 EV · 4-Seamer
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	0	0	0	1	.500
06-09	vs MIL	5	1	0	0	0	2	.200
06-08	vs MIL	7	3	1	2	0	3	.857
💣 421ft · 108.0 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker58PA	.274	.445	12.5	52.2	54	10.1
🐾CUCurveball21PA	.316	.517	18.2	69.2	82	32.1
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball72PA	.406	.424	23.9	48.9	48	24.3
🐾FSSplit-Finger10PA	.700	.233	16.7	71.4	100	38.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.600	.668	20.0	80.0	50	6.2	194	11
vs RHP	.205	.393	10.5	44.7	55	10.0	114	50

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.333	.534	25.0	100.0	100	37.5	194	7
vs RHP	—	.413	14.3	57.1	71	21.4	114	10

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.400	.364	18.2	45.5	46	16.1	194	33
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.485	.473	29.2	54.2	50	24.7	114	40

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.500	.304	25.0	75.0	100	33.3	114	6

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Langeliers.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected6 of 39 HRs · 15%

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 16 of 39 career HRs (41%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.247

Barrel %

14.4

Hard Hit %

43.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.375

xBA

.281

Brl / PA %

10.40

Max EV (mph)

114.4

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

117.3

Avg EV on HRs

107.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

415

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/13

Crushed (105+ mph)

11/13

Avg LA on HRs

27.5°

Brl / PA %

10.40

Sampled across 13 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.445
Whiff%
10.1
HH%
52.2
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.517
Whiff%
32.1
HH%
69.2
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
82
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.424
Whiff%
24.3
HH%
48.9
BRL%
23.9
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · limited (15 PA)

OPS

1.604

RBI

K-BB

5-1

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .469). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

13 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 4

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

SISinker3

STSweeper2

KCKnuckle-Curve1

FSSplitter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 20 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP228PA	.211	.461	.786	13.3%	11
vs LHP80PA	.346	.693	1.081	17.5%	7

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home152PA	.244	.548	.930	15.7%	8
Away156PA	.250	.500	.801	13.2%	10

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day98PA	.191	.539	.937	8.3%	4
🐾Night210PA	.274	.516	.830	17.2%	14

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty125PA	.294	.571	.923	9
Runners On139PA	.187	.431	.755	6
RISP68PA	.187	.373	.652	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.304	.658	1.039	6
1 Out123PA	.188	.393	.669	5
2 Outs101PA	.273	.568	.954	7

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.