Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.5%

+589

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Randy Vásquez (RHP) (1.30 HR/9) · park 88

2+ RBI

12.0%

+735

RBI 1+

35.3%

+184

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.8%

95% CI · 15.4–16.2%

+533

Fair odds

1st AB

4.5%

Through AB2

8.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-12%
Temp+5%
vs SP+10%
Contact+20%
SP Contact+9%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast+8%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Randy Vásquez (RHP)

·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0314 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+10% (×1.10) · blended_proj

Park-12% (×0.88)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

SP Statcast allowed+8% (×1.08)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 9 games

Now

+590

High

+1010

Low

+550

Med

+680

Avg

+759

+590

Low +550High +1010

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-13 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

5.2

Proj PA

166

HR / PA

.031

ISO

.155

wOBA

.301

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-13 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

38.1

FB%

33.8

Pull%

45.3

Soft%

17.3

GB%

53.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

42.9

FB%

25.7

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

11.4

GB%

60.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

13.2

Hard%

36.5

FB%

36.5

Pull%

48.1

Soft%

19.2

GB%

51.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

35.6

FB%

41.1

Pull%

53.4

Soft%

16.4

GB%

43.8

Away

HR/FB

5.9

Hard%

40.9

FB%

25.8

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

18.2

GB%

63.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Oriole Park at Camden Yards suppresses HRs (88)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (100% of career HRs)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (88)
High barrels/PA (6.1%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (13.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.375↑ vs season .2569 PA · 15d

OPS

.819

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-09	vs SEA	2	1	0	0	0	.500
06-06	@ TOR	1	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ TOR	3	2	2	0	0	.667
06-02	@ BOS	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-30	vs TOR	1	0	0	1	0	—
05-29	vs TOR	1	0	0	0	0	—
05-27	vs TB	4	0	0	0	0	—
05-26	vs TB	4	1	0	0	1	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR26PA	.240	.285	11.1	55.6	50	12.7
🐾FCCuttervR8PA	.250	.495	12.5	50.0	50	21.1
🐾SISinkervR28PA	.178	.277	7.1	35.7	64	—
🐾CUCurveballvR11PA	—	.098	0.0	—	43	45.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.427	11.1	44.4	44	21.4	66	11
vs RHPTONIGHT	.240	.285	11.1	55.6	50	12.7	92	26

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.495	12.5	50.0	50	21.1	92	8

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.121	0.0	25.0	50	13.3	66	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.178	.277	7.1	35.7	64	0.0	92	28

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.098	0.0	0.0	43	45.0	92	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

136

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

112

Oriole Park at Camden Yards. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jackson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 5 of 5 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.145

Barrel %

7.9

Hard Hit %

40.3

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.295

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

6.10

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.3°

Brl / PA %

6.10

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Randy Vásquez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.285
Whiff%
12.7
HH%
55.6
BRL%
11.1
Pull%
50
FCCuttervs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.495
Whiff%
21.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
12.5
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.277
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
35.7
BRL%
7.1
Pull%
64
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 28 PA this season.

Randy Vásquez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	31.1	15.4	45.7	44	.341	14.3
FCCutter	23.7	14.3	42.2	61	.424	13.0
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	13.5	16.7	54.5	60	.450	26.5
CUCurveball	11.1	3.8	50.0	73	.356	13.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.7	47.3	51	.349	14.6	72
vs RHB	21.7	47.8	26	.328	15.4	36

FCCutter24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	3.7	33.3	70	.316	14.3	35
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	27.3	54.5	50	.560	9.5	27

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	40.0	70	.438	31.2	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	18.8	56.2	56	.460	20.0	39

CUCurveball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	52.4	67	.330	19.4	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	100	.473	11.1	8

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .472). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (BAL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Camden Yards (333/410/318 ft) · elev 36ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP129PA	.168	.432	.703	8.8%	5
vs LHP51PA	.084	.313	.588	7.9%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home94PA	.206	.478	.755	10.0%	5
Away86PA	.074	.309	.576	7.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day86PA	.110	.366	.645	9.9%	2
Night94PA	.176	.429	.695	7.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	—	.216	.447	0
Runners On85PA	.185	.457	.739	4
RISP47PA	.204	.477	.754	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.170	.458	.769	2
1 Out65PA	.050	.233	.448	1
2 Outs54PA	.223	.519	.815	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-028PA	.038	.346	.632	0
1-025PA	.560	1.040	1.520	4
0-130PA	.366	.633	.900	3
2-03PA	—	—	—	0
0-214PA	—	.214	.429	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-228PA	—	.143	.286	0
2-224PA	.174	.304	.471	1
3-218PA	.062	.312	.646	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.