Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.6%

+841

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Bryan Woo (0.99 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

9.8%

+916

RBI 1+

33.3%

+200

Hits 1+

64.3%

-181

Hits 2+

22.2%

+351

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.4%

95% CI · 8.1–8.7%

+1093

Fair odds

1st AB

2.1%

Through AB2

4.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind-1%
vs SP-7%
Contact-11%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast+2%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0323 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-7% (×0.93) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+2% (×1.02)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+840

High

+8030

Low

+395

Med

+932

Avg

+1304

+840

Low +395High +8030

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.5

Proj PA

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.161

wOBA

.300

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.3

Hard%

36.4

FB%

34.5

Pull%

44.2

Soft%

16.4

GB%

51.5

vs LHP

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

40.9

FB%

25.0

Pull%

38.6

Soft%

11.4

GB%

56.8

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.0

Hard%

34.7

FB%

38.0

Pull%

46.3

Soft%

18.2

GB%

49.6

Home

HR/FB

17.6

Hard%

37.0

FB%

42.0

Pull%

53.1

Soft%

14.8

GB%

42.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

4.3

Hard%

35.7

FB%

27.4

Pull%

35.7

Soft%

17.9

GB%

60.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

T-Mobile Park suppresses HRs (92)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (100% of career HRs)
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.500↑ vs season .2548 PA · 15d

OPS

1.375

ISO

.375

RBI

K-BB

2-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	@ SEA	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-14	vs SD	2	1	1	1	0	1	2.000
💣 365ft · 99.9 EV · 4-Seamer
06-09	vs SEA	2	1	0	0	0	0	.500
06-06	@ TOR	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ TOR	3	2	0	2	0	0	.667
06-02	@ BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	—
05-30	vs TOR	1	0	0	0	1	0	—
05-29	vs TOR	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball34PA	.375	.330	10.7	54.2	46	19.6
🐾SISinker31PA	.064	.256	6.2	33.3	63	5.6
🐾STSweeper20PA	.157	.299	11.8	35.3	71	19.4
🐾SLSlider40PA	.189	.316	12.5	48.1	81	43.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.427	11.1	44.4	44	21.4	65	11
vs RHP	.346	.289	10.5	57.9	47	12.5	98	27

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.121	0.0	25.0	50	13.3	65	5
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.178	.277	7.1	35.7	64	0.0	98	28

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.177	.255	6.2	31.2	69	17.6	98	17

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.405	20.0	60.0	80	46.2	65	7
vs RHP	.257	.297	11.1	48.1	82	38.8	98	38

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

108

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jackson.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 5 of 5 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.160

Barrel %

7.9

Hard Hit %

40.7

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.294

xBA

.254

Brl / PA %

6.00

Max EV (mph)

110.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.4

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

394

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

27.3°

Brl / PA %

6.00

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Bryan Woo · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
49
xwOBA
.330
Whiff%
19.6
HH%
54.2
BRL%
10.7
Pull%
46
SISinker
Use%
18
xwOBA
.256
Whiff%
5.6
HH%
33.3
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
63
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 31 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.299
Whiff%
19.4
HH%
35.3
BRL%
11.8
Pull%
71

Bryan Woo arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	48.9	7.1	42.5	38	.290	17.6
SISinker	18.1	8.5	51.8	56	.345	20.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	13.9	7.7	38.2	69	.257	24.6
SLSlider	12.9	9.1	50.0	59	.254	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball49% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.8	45.5	42	.339	16.0	104
vs RHB	5.6	36.1	31	.196	20.5	53

SISinker18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.8	56.2	56	.397	9.5	20
vs RHB	4.7	51.2	56	.329	25.7	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	33.3	83	.293	23.1	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	3.7	33.3	63	.240	27.1	40

SLSlider13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	11.1	50.0	56	.234	18.9	30
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	50.0	75	.405	0.0	4

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 24.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #2 (xwOBA .472). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider3

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 11 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP131PA	.189	.457	.732	8.8%	6
vs LHP51PA	.084	.313	.588	7.9%	1

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home96PA	.234	.511	.792	9.9%	6
🐾Away86PA	.074	.309	.576	7.0%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day88PA	.143	.405	.689	9.7%	3
Night94PA	.176	.429	.695	7.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty52PA	—	.216	.447	0
Runners On86PA	.183	.451	.730	4
RISP48PA	.200	.467	.738	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs62PA	.217	.517	.840	3
1 Out65PA	.050	.233	.448	1
2 Outs55PA	.218	.509	.800	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Thu.