Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

15.0%

+564

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Leahy (RHP) (1.27 HR/9) · park 92

2+ RBI

12.3%

+715

RBI 1+

35.5%

+181

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.9%

95% CI · 8.6–9.3%

+1018

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-8%
Wind+20%
Temp+5%
vs SP-10%
SP Contact-4%
SP Statcast+5%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Leahy (RHP)

·24 mph wind out to OF
·89F game

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0207 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-10% (×0.90) · blended_proj

Park-8% (×0.92)

Wind+20% (×1.20)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 3 games

Now

+565

High

+940

Low

+725

Med

+800

Avg

+822

+565

Low +725High +940

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.9

Proj PA

HR / PA

.019

ISO

.106

wOBA

.296

wRC+

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Busch Stadium suppresses HRs (92)
90°F — ball flies in warm air
24 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park drag (92)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (12.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.250→ vs season .2505 PA · 15d

OPS

.450

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Game Log · Last 2

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-13	@ BAL	2	1	0	1	0	0	.500

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Busch Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Solak.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Leahy · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SLSlider
Use%
16
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Kyle Leahy (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.9	16.4	66.7	51	.455	17.2
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.8	7.4	60.0	82	.288	20.7
SLSlider	15.8	12.1	40.6	61	.375	13.3
SISinker	13.5	4.3	44.2	54	.417	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	16.3	65.1	49	.474	17.5	57
vs RHB	16.7	55.6	56	.402	13.0	22

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	60.0	75	.292	22.7	33
vs RHB	0.0	42.9	100	.270	11.1	9

SLSlider16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	35.7	86	.428	0.0	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	15.8	42.1	42	.334	28.6	23

SISinker14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	80.0	80	.537	27.3	14
vs RHB	2.8	33.3	47	.380	13.6	52

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 20.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .228). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP2PA	—	.500	1.000	16.7%	0
vs LHP3PA	—	—	—	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Away5PA	—	.250	.450	11.1%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day5PA	—	.250	.450	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty1PA	—	—	—
Runners On3PA	—	—	—
RISP1PA	—	—	—

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs2PA	—	.500	1.000
1 Out2PA	—	—	—
2 Outs1PA	—	—	—

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Wed.