Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
12.8%
+679
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs Zack Wheeler (RHP) (1.12 HR/9) · park 131
Batting #2Projected lineup
2+ RBI
11.1%
+804
RBI 1+
34.4%
+191
Hits 1+
68.2%
-215
Hits 2+
26.4%
+279
Switch Hitter — Batting Side
As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT
122wRC+
🐾As RHB(vs LHP)
158wRC+
🐾 Stronger from the RIGHT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his weaker side.
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
4.3%
95% CI · 4.0–4.5%
+2251
Fair odds
1st AB
1.0%
Through AB2
2.0%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
Park+31%
vs SP-13%
Contact-20%
SP Contact+3%
Statcast-6%
SP Statcast-1%
🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Zack Wheeler (RHP)
·HR-friendly park (factor 131)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
⚠ Thin blended HR rate
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0103 · blended_3sys
TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)-13% (×0.87) · blended_proj
Park+31% (×1.31)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp0% (×1.00)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-20% (×0.80)
Statcast (barrel/EV)-6% (×0.94)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)+3% (×1.03)
SP Statcast allowed-1% (×0.99)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 17 games
Now
+1125
High
+1900
Low
+545
Med
+1060
Avg
+1063
+1125
Low +545High +1900
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
2.7
Proj PA
353
HR / PA
.008
ISO
.086
wOBA
.320
wRC+
101
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
7.6
Hard%
30.7
FB%
35.1
Pull%
35.1
Soft%
12.7
GB%
44.4
vs LHP
HR/FB
25.0
Hard%
28.6
FB%
34.0
Pull%
36.7
Soft%
10.2
GB%
42.6
🐾vs RHP
HR/FB
3.2
Hard%
31.3
FB%
35.4
Pull%
34.6
Soft%
13.4
GB%
44.9
Home
HR/FB
10.4
Hard%
32.0
FB%
40.0
Pull%
34.4
Soft%
14.8
GB%
41.7
🐾Away
HR/FB
3.2
Hard%
29.2
FB%
29.5
Pull%
35.8
Soft%
10.4
GB%
47.6
🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾
LEAN
🏟Citizens Bank Park is a hitter's haven (+31 for SHB)
🔥Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
·Park boost (131)
·High barrels/PA (4.3%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.195↓ vs season .27851 PA · 15d
OPS
.489
ISO
—
HR
0
RBI
4
K-BB
7-7
Game Log · Last 8
Date
Opp
AB
H
HR
RBI
BB
K
SLG
06-13
@ PIT
3
0
0
0
1
0
—
06-12
@ PIT
4
1
0
1
0
1
.250
06-11
vs ARI
3
1
0
1
0
0
.333
06-10
vs ARI
2
0
0
0
1
1
—
06-09
vs ARI
3
2
0
2
1
0
.667
06-07
vs TB
3
0
0
0
1
1
—
06-06
vs TB
4
1
0
0
0
1
.250
06-05
vs TB
3
0
0
0
0
1
—
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.
Pitch
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR88PA
.306
.430
10.0
38.6
37
4.9
🐾SISinkervR38PA
—
.325
0.0
34.4
50
2.1
🐾STSweepervR11PA
—
.219
0.0
—
100
29.4
🐾FSSplit-FingervR10PA
.100
.239
0.0
30.0
70
7.7
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FF4-Seam Fastball
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
.250
.397
5.6
22.2
28
11.9
158
21
vs RHPTONIGHT
.306
.430
10.0
38.6
37
4.9
122
88
SISinker
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES
.272
.387
11.1
33.3
67
10.0
158
13
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.325
0.0
34.4
50
2.1
122
38
STSweeper
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
—
.219
0.0
0.0
100
29.4
122
11
FSSplit-Finger
Split
ISO
xwOBA
BRL%
HH%
Pull%
Whiff%
wRC+
PA
vs LHP
no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT
.100
.239
0.0
30.0
70
7.7
122
10
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
131
vs RHB
92
🐾vs SHB
111
Citizens Bank Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Edwards.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected0 of 4 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 4 of 4 career HRs (100%).
Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Tonight's Pitch Matchup
Zack Wheeler · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
39
xwOBA
.430
Whiff%
4.9
HH%
38.6
BRL%
10.0
Pull%
37
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.325
Whiff%
2.1
HH%
34.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
STSweepervs RHP
Use%
14
xwOBA
.219
Whiff%
29.4
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.
Career vs Zack Wheeler (RHP)
🐾 Tonight's matchup
—AVG · small sample (3 PA)
OPS
—
HR
0
RBI
0
K-BB
0-0
Zack Wheeler (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)
Pitch
Use%
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY
38.9
9.1
43.2
46
.244
22.7
SISinker
16.7
10.3
35.9
49
.321
14.3
STSweeper
13.5
5.9
23.5
71
.341
17.1
FSSplit-Finger
12.7
4.2
29.2
75
.257
19.6
Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY39% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT
8.8
41.2
47
.258
19.1
53
vs RHB
10.0
50.0
40
.208
31.0
20
SISinker17% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB
0.0
0.0
25
.117
15.4
6
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT
11.4
40.0
51
.354
13.6
39
STSweeper14% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
14.3
57.1
71
.633
0.0
8
vs RHB
0.0
0.0
70
.204
20.7
17
FSSplit-Finger13% use
Split
BRL%-A
HH%-A
Pull%
xwOBA
Put%
PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT
5.3
31.6
74
.326
9.4
22
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY
0.0
20.0
80
.119
42.9
11
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .383). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (PHI)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citizens Bank Park (329/401/330 ft) · elev 39ft
6 HRs this season
vs RHP 2vs LHP 4
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
FF🐾4-Seam Fastball3
FCCutter1
SISinker1
SLSlider1
Bats S · Switch hitter
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
8
games since last HR
32
PAs since last HR
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾vs RHP234PA
.119
.413
.793
4.9%
2
vs LHP67PA
.220
.542
.936
7.5%
4
Location
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
Home161PA
.156
.447
.810
7.2%
5
🐾Away140PA
.126
.437
.844
3.5%
1
Time
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
BRL%
HR
🐾Day136PA
.141
.430
.786
3.6%
4
Night165PA
.144
.453
.859
7.1%
2
Base State
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
Bases Empty89PA
.247
.593
.997
4
Runners On129PA
.077
.365
.763
0
RISP77PA
.104
.397
.826
0
Outs
Split
ISO
SLG
OPS
HR
0 Outs112PA
.115
.375
.726
2
1 Out101PA
.193
.534
.940
3
2 Outs88PA
.118
.421
.819
1
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Mon.
