Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.7%

+689

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 91

Batting #7Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.0%

+811

RBI 1+

34.3%

+191

Hits 1+

61.9%

-163

Hits 2+

19.8%

+405

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

14.9%

95% CI · 14.5–15.3%

+570

Fair odds

1st AB

4.1%

Through AB2

7.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-9%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-13%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast+9%
SP Statcast+3%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0476 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-9% (×0.91)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+9% (×1.09)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+485

High

+930

Low

+345

Med

+562

Avg

+592

+485

Low +345High +930

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

13.8

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.053

ISO

.223

wOBA

.333

wRC+

114

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

17.4

Hard%

40.5

FB%

38.0

Pull%

45.9

Soft%

17.4

GB%

44.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

40.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

18.0

GB%

40.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

16.4

Hard%

40.6

FB%

34.9

Pull%

45.8

Soft%

17.2

GB%

45.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

35.1

FB%

39.6

Pull%

48.6

Soft%

16.2

GB%

42.3

Away

HR/FB

25.0

Hard%

45.0

FB%

36.6

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

18.3

GB%

46.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (46% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .870 OPS over last 15 days
94°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (91)
High barrels/PA (6.3%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.300↑ vs season .24046 PA · 15d

OPS

.870

ISO

.200

RBI

K-BB

11-5

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-15	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	0	2	.250
06-14	@ BOS	5	1	0	0	0	2	.400
06-13	@ BOS	3	1	1	1	1	2	1.333
💣 421ft · 107.3 EV · Sinker
06-12	@ BOS	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-11	@ KC	3	2	0	0	1	0	.667
06-10	@ KC	2	2	1	2	1	0	2.500
💣 399ft · 99.4 EV · Slider
06-09	@ KC	3	1	0	1	1	0	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.105	.270	3.8	59.2	47	25.8
🐾STSweeper41PA	.103	.301	6.9	31.0	72	33.3
🐾CUCurveball17PA	.438	.375	37.5	55.6	75	36.4
🐾SISinker54PA	.360	.415	11.9	54.8	60	23.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.050	.151	0.0	38.5	54	32.1	147	21
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.114	.318	5.0	67.5	45	20.6	93	59

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.108	.305	7.1	32.1	71	33.3	93	39

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.445	.509	50.0	66.7	67	20.0	93	10

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.313	.401	10.3	53.8	59	18.8	93	52

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Burger.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #7Confirmed0 of 26 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 26 career HRs (46%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.186

Barrel %

9.5

Hard Hit %

46.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.305

xBA

.240

Brl / PA %

6.30

Max EV (mph)

113.6

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.6

Avg EV on HRs

104.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

393

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

1/9

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/9

Avg LA on HRs

25.6°

Brl / PA %

6.30

Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.270
Whiff%
25.8
HH%
59.2
BRL%
3.8
Pull%
47
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 73 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
.301
Whiff%
33.3
HH%
31.0
BRL%
6.9
Pull%
72
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
.375
Whiff%
36.4
HH%
55.6
BRL%
37.5
Pull%
75

Career vs Joe Ryan

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (5 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

5-0

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .552). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft

9 HRs this season

vs RHP 8vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SI🐾Sinker5

KCKnuckle-Curve1

SLSlider1

CUCurveball1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 16 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP228PA	.161	.398	.692	9.3%	8
vs LHP59PA	.289	.577	.916	10.3%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home117PA	.090	.315	.580	5.4%	1
Away170PA	.257	.520	.849	13.0%	11

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day94PA	.276	.575	.915	15.5%	6
Night193PA	.142	.364	.649	7.0%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty89PA	.197	.395	.665	3
Runners On132PA	.185	.462	.795	6
RISP77PA	.203	.478	.803	4

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs96PA	.171	.455	.799	4
1 Out85PA	.247	.494	.788	5
2 Outs106PA	.153	.367	.641	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.