Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
12.2%
+718
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 91
Batting #1Projected lineup
2+ RBI
10.7%
+832
RBI 1+
34.1%
+193
Hits 1+
63.0%
-170
Hits 2+
20.8%
+381
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter18.0%
95% CI · 17.5–18.4%
+457
Fair odds
1st AB
4.5%
Through AB2
9.3%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
- Park-9%
- Temp+5%
- Contact-12%
- Statcast+12%
🎯 Early-AB cues
- ·85F game
- ·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
- ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0485 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-9% (×0.91)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)-12% (×0.88)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+12% (×1.11)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline-1% (×0.99)
HR Odds History
Price range · 17 games
Now
+550
High
+2995
Low
+375
Med
+655
Avg
+875
+550
Low +375High +2995
BUILDING HISTORY
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
HR Winners — odds that cashed
No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-14 · THE BAT XProj HR (RoS)
17.0
Proj PA
361
HR / PA
.047
ISO
.206
wOBA
.326
wRC+
107
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG
Season
HR/FB
18.5
Hard%
39.8
FB%
35.9
Pull%
45.3
Soft%
18.2
GB%
45.9
vs LHP
HR/FB
21.1
Hard%
40.0
FB%
54.3
Pull%
48.6
Soft%
17.1
GB%
37.1
vs RHP
HR/FB
17.4
Hard%
39.7
FB%
31.5
Pull%
44.5
Soft%
18.5
GB%
47.9
🐾Home
HR/FB
3.6
Hard%
35.5
FB%
36.8
Pull%
48.7
Soft%
15.8
GB%
44.7
Away
HR/FB
29.7
Hard%
42.9
FB%
35.2
Pull%
42.9
Soft%
20.0
GB%
46.7
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
Why this pick
3.0 🐾LEAN
- Globe Life Field suppresses HRs (91)
- Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (46% of career HRs)
- Hot streak: .877 OPS over last 15 days
- 85°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park drag (91)
- High barrels/PA (6.6%)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.270↑ vs season .24646 PA · 15d
OPS
.877
ISO
.216
HR
2
RBI
5
K-BB
9-8
Game Log · Last 8
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-13 | @ BOS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.333 |
| 💣 421ft · 107.3 EV · Sinker | ||||||||
| 06-12 | @ BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-11 | @ KC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .667 |
| 06-10 | @ KC | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.500 |
| 💣 399ft · 99.4 EV · Slider | ||||||||
| 06-09 | @ KC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .333 |
| 06-07 | vs CLE | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| 06-06 | vs CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 06-05 | vs CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — |
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
| Pitch | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC10PA | .125 | .480 | 12.5 | 50.0 | 88 | 43.5 |
| SI54PA | .360 | .415 | 11.9 | 54.8 | 60 | 23.5 |
| CU16PA | .466 | .398 | 37.5 | 55.6 | 75 | 32.3 |
| CH26PA | .318 | .364 | 12.5 | 35.7 | 69 | 46.5 |
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | — | .490 | 20.0 | 60.0 | 80 | 38.9 | 97 | 7 |
SISinker
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .313 | .401 | 10.3 | 53.8 | 59 | 18.9 | 97 | 52 |
CUCurveball
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP | no sample | |||||||
| vs RHP | .445 | .509 | 50.0 | 66.7 | 67 | 15.8 | 97 | 10 |
CHChangeup
| Split | ISO | xwOBA | BRL% | HH% | Pull% | Whiff% | wRC+ | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES | .461 | .460 | 18.2 | 36.4 | 73 | 42.3 | 146 | 16 |
| vs RHP | .083 | .233 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 60 | 40.0 | 97 | 13 |
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
vs LHB
94
🐾vs RHB
91
vs SHB
92
Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Burger.
HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected0 of 26 HRs · 0%
🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 26 career HRs (46%).
1
🐾
12
2
🐾
7
3
🐾
3
4
·
2
5
·
2
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#2#3
Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.
Season Statcast
ISO
.192
Barrel %
9.9
Hard Hit %
47.5
Pull % (HRs)
67
xwOBA
.314
xBA
.246
Brl / PA %
6.60
Max EV (mph)
113.6
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
113.6
Avg EV on HRs
104.8
Avg HR Distance (ft)
393
HRs in sample
9
No-doubters (110+ mph)
1/9
Crushed (105+ mph)
2/9
Avg LA on HRs
25.6°
Brl / PA %
6.60
Sampled across 9 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.
Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .552). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (TEX)
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Globe Life Field (329/407/326 ft) · elev 591ft
9 HRs this season
vs RHP 8vs LHP 1
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
SI🐾Sinker5
KCKnuckle-Curve1
SLSlider1
CUCurveball1
FF4-Seam Fastball1
Bats R · Pull side: LF
HR Drought — when he's due
HR Drought
0
games since last HR
0
PAs since last HR
Homers about every 4.0 games · 15 PA (2 HR in 8 G)
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP218PA | .169 | .408 | .706 | 9.6% | 8 |
| vs LHP56PA | .285 | .571 | .910 | 10.8% | 4 |
Location
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Home109PA | .097 | .320 | .586 | 5.7% | 1 |
| Away165PA | .259 | .524 | .857 | 13.3% | 11 |
Time
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day94PA | .276 | .575 | .915 | 15.5% | 6 |
| 🐾Night180PA | .147 | .368 | .657 | 7.4% | 6 |
Base State
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty86PA | .193 | .372 | .628 | 3 |
| Runners On126PA | .195 | .487 | .836 | 6 |
| RISP74PA | .212 | .500 | .838 | 4 |
Outs
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs91PA | .181 | .470 | .822 | 4 |
| 1 Out83PA | .253 | .493 | .782 | 5 |
| 2 Outs100PA | .153 | .370 | .650 | 3 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Mon.