Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.1%

+665

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ben Brown (RHP) (0.16 HR/9) · park 100

2+ RBI

11.2%

+794

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

68.8%

-221

Hits 2+

27.1%

+269

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.5%

95% CI · 15.1–15.9%

+545

Fair odds

1st AB

3.5%

Through AB2

6.9%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

vs SP-25%
Contact+19%
SP Contact-13%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Ben Brown (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0368 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-25% (×0.75) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+19% (×1.19)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+665

High

+955

Low

+300

Med

+500

Avg

+554

🐾+665

Low +300🐾 HR money zoneHigh +955

WARMspot score 76

Just below his HR money zone (+415 to +415). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

12.6

Proj PA

332

HR / PA

.038

ISO

.182

wOBA

.322

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

15.2

Hard%

31.3

FB%

50.0

Pull%

40.9

Soft%

16.2

GB%

32.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

26.6

FB%

42.2

Pull%

40.6

Soft%

17.2

GB%

31.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

33.6

FB%

53.7

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

15.7

GB%

32.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

32.0

FB%

56.0

Pull%

38.7

Soft%

21.3

GB%

32.0

Away

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

30.9

FB%

46.3

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

13.0

GB%

32.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Ben Brown stingy: only 0.16 HR/9
17 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Elite barrel% (12.6)
High barrels/PA (9.6%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.16 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.221↓ vs season .28269 PA · 15d

OPS

.599

ISO

.161

RBI

K-BB

14-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs CHC	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	vs WSH	5	1	0	0	0	0	.200
06-09	vs WSH	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	0	0	0	.400
06-07	@ CHC	5	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-06	@ CHC	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ CHC	6	4	2	3	0	1	1.667
💣 424ft · 101.9 EV · Fastball💣 411ft · 104.8 EV · Changeup
06-04	@ MIL	5	2	1	2	0	0	1.000
💣 379ft · 93.6 EV · Sinker

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CUCurveball15PA	.215	.288	0.0	22.2	71	39.4
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR54PA	.138	.290	9.5	42.9	45	14.3
🐾SISinkervR45PA	.150	.341	2.7	32.4	51	4.2
🐾CHChangeupvR5PA	1.800	1.084	75.0	75.0	100	26.7

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.166	.366	0.0	0.0	60	27.8	157	6
vs RHP	no sample

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	—	.353	9.1	36.4	59	17.4	157	26
vs RHPTONIGHT	.138	.290	9.5	42.9	45	14.3	114	54

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.278	.445	20.0	66.7	53	15.4	157	20
vs RHPTONIGHT	.150	.341	2.7	32.4	51	4.2	114	45

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.285	.345	9.1	27.3	73	26.9	157	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.800	1.084	75.0	75.0	100	26.7	114	5

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

100

vs SHB

Oracle Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schmitt.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.240

Barrel %

12.6

Hard Hit %

42.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.348

xBA

.282

Brl / PA %

9.60

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

9.60

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ben Brown · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

CUCurveball
Use%
37
xwOBA
.288
Whiff%
39.4
HH%
22.2
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
71
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.290
Whiff%
14.3
HH%
42.9
BRL%
9.5
Pull%
45
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
20
xwOBA
.341
Whiff%
4.2
HH%
32.4
BRL%
2.7
Pull%
51

Career vs Ben Brown (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Ben Brown (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CUCurveball	37.1	—	41.3	—	.229	29.1
FF4-Seam Fastball	36.6	5.5	46.3	53	.319	14.9
SISinker	20.0	2.7	36.1	65	.262	20.0
CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	6.3	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.8	45.2	57	.331	14.9	59
vs RHB	7.7	46.2	39	.286	17.9	20

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	2.9	40.0	66	.272	21.1	44

CHChangeup⚡ PUT-AWAY6% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	50.0	50	.215	33.3	12
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 33.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .509). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SF)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Oracle Park (339/399/309 ft) · elev 13ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

ST🐾Sweeper3

FF4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP187PA	.257	.491	.764	12.0%	12
vs LHP78PA	.187	.547	.919	12.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home104PA	.263	.484	.753	14.1%	7
Away161PA	.220	.523	.846	10.9%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day105PA	.320	.640	.973	11.0%	9
🐾Night160PA	.180	.420	.701	12.9%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty78PA	.351	.608	.903	7
Runners On127PA	.218	.529	.860	7
RISP67PA	.136	.407	.720	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs82PA	.184	.447	.740	3
1 Out85PA	.423	.808	1.232	9
2 Outs98PA	.125	.313	.517	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-040PA	.553	.921	1.321	6
1-022PA	.238	.524	.842	1
0-131PA	.036	.429	.816	0
2-08PA	—	—	—	0
0-228PA	.036	.286	.536	0
3-01PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-246PA	.111	.311	.507	0
2-225PA	.166	.333	.533	1
3-230PA	.360	.520	.820	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Sat.