Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.8%

+681

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #1Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+805

RBI 1+

34.4%

+191

Hits 1+

68.8%

-221

Hits 2+

27.1%

+269

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

19.3%

95% CI · 18.9–19.8%

+418

Fair odds

1st AB

5.0%

Through AB2

9.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
Lineup+3%
Contact+9%
SP Contact-2%
Statcast+19%
SP Statcast-3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0369 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+9% (×1.09)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+19% (×1.19)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games · 1 HR

Now

+815

High

+4510

Low

+405

Med

+840

Avg

+1033

🐾+815

Low +405🐾 HR money zoneHigh +4510

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 1× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

🐾+10252026-07-09vs COLbook line

HomeBat 3rdoff RHPSweeper

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.7

Proj PA

249

HR / PA

.043

ISO

.195

wOBA

.323

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

13.3

Hard%

34.6

FB%

50.5

Pull%

38.9

Soft%

14.8

GB%

29.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

10.5

Hard%

28.9

FB%

45.8

Pull%

41.0

Soft%

13.3

GB%

26.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

37.0

FB%

52.5

Pull%

38.0

Soft%

15.5

GB%

30.5

Home

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

33.3

FB%

54.2

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

18.3

GB%

27.5

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

35.6

FB%

47.9

Pull%

40.5

Soft%

12.3

GB%

30.7

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (8.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.288↑ vs season .28261 PA · 15d

OPS

.753

ISO

.170

RBI

K-BB

11-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	K	SLG
06-17	@ ATL	4	2	1	.500
06-16	@ ATL	4	2	0	.500
06-14	vs CHC	3	2	1	1.000
06-13	vs CHC	4	1	2	.250
06-12	vs CHC	4	0	1	—
06-10	vs WSH	5	1	0	.200
06-09	vs WSH	5	0	2	—
06-08	vs WSH	5	2	0	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾CHChangeup18PA	.722	.550	26.7	40.0	80	29.3
🐾SISinker68PA	.181	.372	6.9	39.3	52	8.7
🐾FCCutter26PA	.363	.367	4.8	55.0	62	18.3
🐾CUCurveball18PA	.177	.243	0.0	20.0	71	39.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.285	.345	9.1	27.3	73	26.9	153	14
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	1.800	1.084	75.0	75.0	100	25.0	117	5

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.278	.445	20.0	66.7	53	15.4	153	20
vs RHP	.130	.347	2.3	27.9	51	3.8	117	51

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.400	.342	5.6	55.6	67	14.6	117	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.143	.314	0.0	0.0	60	28.6	153	7
vs RHP	no sample

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Schmitt.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #1Projected0 of 3 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 1 of 3 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#3#7

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.226

Barrel %

11.8

Hard Hit %

41.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.344

xBA

.282

Brl / PA %

8.90

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.8

Avg EV on HRs

105.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

6/8

Avg LA on HRs

29.3°

Brl / PA %

8.90

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
.550
Whiff%
29.3
HH%
40.0
BRL%
26.7
Pull%
80
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
.372
Whiff%
8.7
HH%
39.3
BRL%
6.9
Pull%
52
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
18.3
HH%
55.0
BRL%
4.8
Pull%
62

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .509). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 7vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

ST🐾Sweeper3

FF4-Seam Fastball2

CHChangeup2

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP202PA	.243	.497	.789	11.2%	12
vs LHP79PA	.184	.539	.906	12.3%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home112PA	.255	.490	.776	12.9%	7
🐾Away169PA	.208	.521	.852	10.6%	8

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day109PA	.320	.650	.999	10.8%	9
🐾Night172PA	.167	.420	.711	12.1%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty86PA	.317	.573	.864	7
Runners On131PA	.222	.533	.869	7
RISP69PA	.133	.400	.719	2

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs87PA	.172	.481	.814	3
1 Out88PA	.408	.778	1.187	9
2 Outs106PA	.126	.320	.537	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.