Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.9%

+673

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Joe Ryan (0.88 HR/9) · park 94

Batting #6Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

11.1%

+800

RBI 1+

34.5%

+190

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

6.3%

95% CI · 6.0–6.6%

+1492

Fair odds

1st AB

1.6%

Through AB2

3.3%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
Temp+5%
vs SP+1%
Contact-11%
SP Contact+5%
Statcast-9%
SP Statcast+3%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·93F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0198 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+1% (×1.01) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-9% (×0.91)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

SP Statcast allowed+3% (×1.03)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 4 games

Now

+825

High

+795

Low

+460

Med

+735

Avg

+681

+825

Low +460High +795

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

2.0

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.123

wOBA

.304

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

2.2

Hard%

25.8

FB%

47.4

Pull%

37.1

Soft%

23.7

GB%

36.8

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

12.5

Pull%

33.3

Soft%

22.2

GB%

75.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

2.3

Hard%

26.1

FB%

50.6

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

23.9

GB%

33.3

🐾Home

HR/FB

4.0

Hard%

28.3

FB%

48.1

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

18.9

GB%

32.7

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.7

FB%

46.5

Pull%

36.4

Soft%

29.5

GB%

41.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Joe Ryan stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (45% of career HRs)
94°F — ball flies in warm air
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.5% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .2505 PA · 15d

OPS

.400

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs MIN	4	1	0	0	.250
06-15	vs MIN	1	0	0	0	—
05-03	@ DET	3	2	1	0	.667
05-02	@ DET	4	2	0	0	.500
05-01	@ DET	2	0	0	2	—
04-28	vs NYY	4	0	0	2	—
04-27	vs NYY	2	0	0	0	—
04-26	vs ATH	2	1	2	0	.500

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball37PA	—	.280	0.0	35.5	46	13.2
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾SISinker16PA	.077	.461	20.0	63.6	67	21.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.285	0.0	35.3	47	5.6	79	40

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.222	0.0	50.0	83	15.0	—	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.083	.570	33.3	66.7	56	15.8	79	15

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Globe Life Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Smith.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Confirmed0 of 20 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 9 of 20 career HRs (45%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Joe Ryan · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.280
Whiff%
13.2
HH%
35.5
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
46
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 37 PA this season.
STSweeper
Use%
14
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
12
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Joe Ryan arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.1	12.6	48.5	56	.310	18.4
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	14.0	10.0	28.6	77	.234	32.1
CUCurveball	12.2	—	24.0	—	.219	21.3
SISinker	11.8	10.0	50.0	45	.301	17.4

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.3	50.7	57	.308	23.4	105
vs RHB	11.1	47.2	53	.311	13.4	56

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	16.7	41.7	75	.331	33.3	18
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	22.2	78	.180	30.2	33

SISinker12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	33.3	58	.301	21.1	20
vs RHB	14.3	64.3	39	.304	12.9	32

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 32.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #8 (xwOBA .364). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP98PA	.024	.256	.603	5.0%	0
vs LHP15PA	—	.133	.266	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home49PA	.024	.195	.481	6.4%	0
Away64PA	.018	.268	.612	2.4%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day39PA	.030	.303	.688	3.3%	0
Night74PA	.015	.203	.487	5.1%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty36PA	—	.235	.513
Runners On51PA	.025	.275	.667
RISP29PA	—	.211	.659

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs40PA	.027	.194	.444
1 Out41PA	—	.229	.546
2 Outs32PA	.039	.308	.714

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.