Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

12.2%

+721

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Nick Martinez (RHP) (0.70 HR/9) · park 119

2+ RBI

10.7%

+834

RBI 1+

34.1%

+193

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.8%

95% CI · 5.5–6.0%

+1629

Fair odds

1st AB

1.4%

Through AB2

2.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+19%
vs SP-16%
Contact-22%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-16%
SP Statcast-4%
Discipline+2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Nick Martinez (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 119)
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0226 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-16% (×0.84) · blended_proj

Park+19% (×1.19)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-22% (×0.78)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-16% (×0.84)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed-4% (×0.96)

Discipline+2% (×1.02)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games

Now

+720

High

+1190

Low

+350

Med

+915

Avg

+820

+720

Low +350High +1190

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

1.5

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.124

wOBA

.313

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-14 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

19.4

FB%

37.5

Pull%

47.2

Soft%

20.8

GB%

47.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

17.2

FB%

31.0

Pull%

48.3

Soft%

20.7

GB%

48.3

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.9

FB%

41.9

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

20.9

GB%

46.5

🐾Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

9.4

FB%

40.6

Pull%

46.9

Soft%

28.1

GB%

40.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.5

FB%

35.0

Pull%

47.5

Soft%

15.0

GB%

52.5

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is a hitter's haven (+19 for RHB)
Nick Martinez stingy: only 0.70 HR/9
Hot streak: .460 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (119)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.70 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.179↓ vs season .25032 PA · 15d

OPS

.460

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	BB	K	SLG
06-13	@ CHW	3	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ CHW	3	1	0	0	.333
06-11	@ PIT	1	1	1	0	1.000
06-10	@ PIT	1	0	0	1	—
06-09	@ PIT	1	0	0	0	—
06-07	vs LAA	4	1	0	1	.250
06-06	vs LAA	3	0	1	2	—
06-05	vs LAA	3	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR23PA	—	.187	0.0	—	59	2.5
🐾CHChangeup	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR20PA	.166	.444	0.0	50.0	30	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.183	0.0	40.0	60	0.0	152	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.187	0.0	0.0	59	2.5	77	23

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.167	.358	0.0	16.7	56	15.8	152	20
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.166	.444	0.0	50.0	30	14.3	77	20

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

120

🐾vs RHB

119

vs SHB

119

UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Call.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 2 of 4 career HRs (50%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1#2#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Nick Martinez · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.187
Whiff%
2.5
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
59
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 23 PA this season.
CHChangeup
Use%
28
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
20
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Career vs Nick Martinez (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.500AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

1.000

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Nick Martinez (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	31.4	6.5	40.7	59	.337	21.9
CHChangeup	28.0	1.4	15.0	61	.204	19.6
FCCutter	19.5	8.1	25.4	61	.364	19.0
FF4-Seam Fastball	10.5	10.8	57.1	60	.440	9.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	9.1	63.6	52	.299	25.0	47
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	31.7	63	.366	15.8	68

CHChangeup28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	1.8	19.6	61	.221	18.8	72
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	6.2	63	.157	16.4	27

FCCutter20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.7	22.2	67	.340	20.0	50
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	37.9	52	.402	12.5	31

FF4-Seam Fastball11% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	13.0	52.2	74	.410	12.5	27
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	7.1	50.0	36	.504	4.2	17

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 21.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #7 (xwOBA .449). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP65PA	.037	.241	.579	2.0%	0
vs LHP37PA	.097	.452	.884	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home46PA	.052	.308	.656	—	0
Away56PA	.065	.326	.719	2.3%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day40PA	.061	.364	.789	—	0
🐾Night62PA	.057	.288	.627	2.0%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty34PA	.143	.393	.775
Runners On50PA	—	.244	.604
RISP33PA	—	.296	.690

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs36PA	.034	.267	.600
1 Out29PA	.190	.619	1.205
2 Outs37PA	—	.176	.419

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Mon.