Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

16.3%

+514

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Cade Cavalli (RHP) (0.65 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

13.0%

+671

RBI 1+

36.1%

+177

Hits 1+

64.7%

-183

Hits 2+

22.5%

+344

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

24.2%

95% CI · 23.7–24.7%

+313

Fair odds

1st AB

5.6%

Through AB2

10.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP-24%
Contact+24%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+23%
SP Statcast-2%
Discipline-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Cade Cavalli (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0439 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-24% (×0.76) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+24% (×1.24)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games · 2 HR

Now

+515

High

+1025

Low

+295

Med

+522

Avg

+540

🐾🐾+515

Low +295🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1025

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.4

Proj PA

250

HR / PA

.046

ISO

.205

wOBA

.330

wRC+

115

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

26.9

Hard%

39.8

FB%

45.6

Pull%

49.2

Soft%

15.3

GB%

36.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

9.1

FB%

30.0

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

27.3

GB%

50.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

43.0

FB%

47.1

Pull%

49.5

Soft%

14.0

GB%

34.6

Home

HR/FB

31.8

Hard%

34.5

FB%

41.5

Pull%

52.7

Soft%

20.0

GB%

39.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

23.3

Hard%

44.4

FB%

49.2

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

11.1

GB%

32.8

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
Elite power: .276 ISO
17.8% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (33% of career HRs)
91°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
Elite barrel% (17.8)
High barrels/PA (10.6%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.205↓ vs season .25650 PA · 15d

OPS

.718

ISO

.227

RBI

K-BB

13-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ WSH	3	1	0	2	1	0	.333
06-11	@ BAL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 388ft · 92.4 EV · Slider
06-10	@ BAL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-08	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ DET	4	2	0	0	0	2	.750
06-06	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-05	@ DET	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-03	vs NYM	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR69PA	.448	.471	26.8	58.5	54	35.4
🐾CUCurveballvR12PA	.363	.434	50.0	66.7	50	32.0
🐾SISinkervR14PA	.357	.392	30.0	70.0	80	35.5
🐾STSweepervR11PA	.363	.114	20.0	60.0	60	52.9

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.448	.471	26.8	58.5	54	35.4	147	69

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.363	.434	50.0	66.7	50	32.0	147	12

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.152	0.0	0.0	50	0.0	—	7
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.357	.392	30.0	70.0	80	35.5	147	14

STSweeper

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.363	.114	20.0	60.0	60	52.9	147	11

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Raley.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 6 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#1#2#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.276

Barrel %

17.8

Hard Hit %

47.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.361

xBA

.256

Brl / PA %

10.60

Max EV (mph)

113.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.8

Avg EV on HRs

108.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

28.3°

Brl / PA %

10.60

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Cade Cavalli · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
35
xwOBA
.471
Whiff%
35.4
HH%
58.5
BRL%
26.8
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
30
xwOBA
.434
Whiff%
32.0
HH%
66.7
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
15
xwOBA
.392
Whiff%
35.5
HH%
70.0
BRL%
30.0
Pull%
80
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Cade Cavalli (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	34.6	14.3	41.3	48	.375	18.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	29.5	—	31.9	—	.268	28.4
SISinker	15.2	4.9	52.6	76	.345	26.9
STSweeper	11.6	4.3	35.0	52	.320	15.2

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball35% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	10.0	33.3	53	.357	16.4	78
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	54.2	33	.410	20.7	43

SISinker15% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	60.0	70	.501	25.0	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	6.5	51.6	77	.285	25.0	41

STSweeper12% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	—	—	—	.271	25.0	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.3	34.8	52	.337	10.0	30

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .586). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 12vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

FCCutter3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP188PA	.294	.553	.879	20.7%	14
vs LHP15PA	—	.143	.286	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home94PA	.298	.560	.893	18.8%	7
🐾Away109PA	.250	.490	.786	17.9%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day83PA	.156	.416	.721	14.1%	2
Night120PA	.355	.598	.917	22.4%	12

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty67PA	.194	.468	.796	3
Runners On97PA	.349	.593	.909	9
RISP64PA	.419	.655	.988	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs74PA	.268	.507	.808	5
1 Out69PA	.295	.541	.865	5
2 Outs60PA	.250	.518	.835	4

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-026PA	.542	1.042	1.580	3
1-014PA	.500	.833	1.190	1
0-113PA	—	.308	.615	0
2-06PA	—	—	—	0
0-226PA	.125	.292	.522	1
3-04PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-241PA	.073	.195	.317	1
2-232PA	.194	.323	.479	2
3-224PA	.333	.500	.875	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.