Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

16.7%

+500

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Shane Baz (0.88 HR/9) · park 108

2+ RBI

13.2%

+660

RBI 1+

36.3%

+175

Hits 1+

65.0%

-186

Hits 2+

22.9%

+337

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

23.8%

95% CI · 23.3–24.3%

+320

Fair odds

1st AB

6.6%

Through AB2

12.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+8%
Wind-1%
Contact+20%
SP Contact-7%
Statcast+23%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0439 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park+8% (×1.08)

Wind-1% (×0.99)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+23% (×1.23)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-7% (×0.93)

SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+745

High

+2000

Low

+350

Med

+655

Avg

+730

+745

Low +350High +2000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

180

HR / PA

.049

ISO

.213

wOBA

.330

wRC+

117

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

40.0

FB%

42.0

Pull%

46.5

Soft%

14.2

GB%

35.3

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

27.8

FB%

17.6

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

22.2

GB%

47.1

vs RHP

HR/FB

23.3

Hard%

41.6

FB%

45.1

Pull%

46.0

Soft%

13.1

GB%

33.8

🐾Home

HR/FB

28.0

Hard%

35.5

FB%

41.7

Pull%

51.6

Soft%

19.4

GB%

38.3

Away

HR/FB

18.4

Hard%

43.0

FB%

42.2

Pull%

43.0

Soft%

10.8

GB%

33.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

T-Mobile Park mild HR boost (+8)
Shane Baz stingy: only 0.88 HR/9
Elite power: .262 ISO
16.7% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
Crushes 2/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #4 (33% of career HRs)
Elite barrel% (16.7)
High barrels/PA (10.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.118↓ vs season .25837 PA · 15d

OPS

.402

ISO

.117

RBI

K-BB

11-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	@ WSH	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	@ WSH	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	@ WSH	3	1	0	2	1	0	.333
06-11	@ BAL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 388ft · 92.4 EV · Slider
06-10	@ BAL	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-08	@ BAL	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-07	@ DET	4	2	0	0	0	2	.750
06-06	@ DET	4	0	0	0	0	1	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball68PA	.390	.455	25.6	58.5	54	39.1
🐾CUCurveball11PA	.300	.352	50.0	75.0	50	37.5
🐾FCCutter25PA	.546	.425	16.7	43.8	56	27.9
🐾CHChangeup40PA	.079	.289	8.0	25.0	72	49.0

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.433	.467	26.2	59.5	55	34.4	140	71

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.363	.434	50.0	66.7	50	30.8	140	12

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.591	.445	17.6	41.2	59	18.6	140	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.081	.297	8.3	25.0	71	48.5	140	39

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

108

vs RHB

vs SHB

100

T-Mobile Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Raley.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #4 — 2 of 6 career HRs (33%).

🐾

Hot spots:#4#1#2#3#5

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.262

Barrel %

16.7

Hard Hit %

47.6

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.359

xBA

.258

Brl / PA %

10.00

Max EV (mph)

113.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

113.8

Avg EV on HRs

108.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

386

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/12

Crushed (105+ mph)

7/12

Avg LA on HRs

28.3°

Brl / PA %

10.00

Sampled across 12 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Shane Baz · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
34
xwOBA
.455
Whiff%
39.1
HH%
58.5
BRL%
25.6
Pull%
54
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
33
xwOBA
.352
Whiff%
37.5
HH%
75.0
BRL%
50.0
Pull%
50
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.425
Whiff%
27.9
HH%
43.8
BRL%
16.7
Pull%
56
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Shane Baz arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	33.5	10.0	34.9	39	.364	15.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	—	45.2	—	.291	22.5
FCCutter	17.8	4.8	39.3	66	.352	14.8
CHChangeup	7.7	15.0	38.9	80	.474	4.3

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball34% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	31.5	43	.403	16.2	76
vs RHB	6.2	43.8	25	.257	14.0	25

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	30.0	90	.457	5.3	17
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.8	40.4	62	.327	21.1	65

CHChangeup8% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	15.0	35.0	80	.474	4.0	21
vs RHB	no sample

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 22.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .586). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (SEA)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: T-Mobile Park (331/401/326 ft) · elev 17ft

12 HRs this season

vs RHP 12vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

FCCutter3

SISinker1

STSweeper1

CUCurveball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 32 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP193PA	.286	.537	.855	19.7%	14
vs LHP17PA	—	.125	.250	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home94PA	.298	.560	.893	18.8%	7
Away116PA	.234	.458	.736	16.0%	7

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day90PA	.143	.381	.662	13.0%	2
Night120PA	.355	.598	.917	21.4%	12

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.181	.439	.749	3
Runners On98PA	.345	.586	.899	9
RISP65PA	.411	.643	.971	7

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs76PA	.261	.493	.786	5
1 Out71PA	.286	.524	.838	5
2 Outs63PA	.238	.492	.794	4

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Day · Thu.