- Park+11%
- Temp+5%
- vs SP-24%
- SP Contact-7%
- SP Statcast-2%
- Discipline-1%
- ·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
- ·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
- ·90F game
▸Model inputs
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
- Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
- Cade Cavalli stingy: only 0.65 HR/9
- 91°F — ball flies in warm air
- Park boost (111)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
- Pitcher suppresses HR (0.65 HR/9)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-12 | @ WSH | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
| 06-11 | @ BAL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| 06-10 | @ BAL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 |
Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Mastrobuoni.
- FF4-Seam FastballUse%35xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- CUCurveballUse%30xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- SISinkerUse%15xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
| Pitch | Use% | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 34.6 | 14.3 | 41.3 | 48 | .375 | 18.7 |
| CU⚡ PUT-AWAY | 29.5 | — | 31.9 | — | .268 | 28.4 |
| SI | 15.2 | 4.9 | 52.6 | 76 | .345 | 26.9 |
| ST | 11.6 | 4.3 | 35.0 | 52 | .320 | 15.2 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | 10.0 | 33.3 | 53 | .357 | 16.4 | 78 |
| vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 25.0 | 54.2 | 33 | .410 | 20.7 | 43 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT | 0.0 | 60.0 | 70 | .501 | 25.0 | 15 |
| vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY | 6.5 | 51.6 | 77 | .285 | 25.0 | 41 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | — | — | — | .271 | 25.0 | 8 |
| vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 4.3 | 34.8 | 52 | .337 | 10.0 | 30 |
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.4% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾vs RHP10PA | — | .222 | .422 | 0 |
| vs LHP1PA | — | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐾Away11PA | — | .300 | .573 | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Night11PA | — | .300 | .573 | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty6PA | — | .333 | .666 | 0 |
| Runners On2PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| RISP2PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs6PA | — | .200 | .367 | 0 |
| 1 Out2PA | — | .500 | 1.000 | 0 |
| 2 Outs3PA | — | .333 | .666 | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-01PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 1-01PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 0-11PA | — | 1.000 | 2.000 | 0 |
| 1-22PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| 2-21PA | — | — | — | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Day · Sat.