- Park-21%
- Wind-2%
- vs SP+4%
- SP Contact+15%
- SP Statcast+3%
- ·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)
▸Model inputs
No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.
🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.
▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).
- Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
- Matthew Liberatore is leaky — 1.79 HR/9 allowed
- Park drag (79)
- High barrels/PA (6.2%)
- Pitcher HR-prone (1.79 HR/9)
- Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (10.2% brl)
Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.
| Date | Opp | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-17 | @ WSH | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.750 |
| 💣 402ft · 106.3 EV · 4-Seamer | ||||||||
| 06-15 | @ WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — |
Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rave.
- FF4-Seam FastballUse%33xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- SLSliderUse%21xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
- CUCurveballUse%16xwOBA—Whiff%—HH%—BRL%—Pull%—
| Pitch | Use% | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FF | 33.4 | 12.5 | 47.4 | 48 | .449 | 10.4 |
| SL⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT | 21.4 | 14.9 | 43.5 | 62 | .293 | 27.7 |
| CU | 16.4 | 13.3 | 35.7 | 60 | .208 | 19.8 |
| CH | 15.4 | 4.4 | 32.6 | 67 | .383 | 9.5 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT | 16.7 | 58.3 | 42 | .613 | 13.6 | 19 |
| vs RHB | 11.8 | 47.1 | 49 | .421 | 10.2 | 89 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT | 20.0 | 48.0 | 60 | .332 | 33.3 | 40 |
| vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY | 9.1 | 40.9 | 64 | .261 | 25.6 | 46 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | no sample | |||||
| vs RHB | 15.4 | 38.5 | 62 | .209 | 20.8 | 31 |
| Split | BRL%-A | HH%-A | Pull% | xwOBA | Put% | PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LHB | no sample | |||||
| vs RHB | 4.4 | 31.1 | 67 | .383 | 13.6 | 53 |
🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.
Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP3PA | 1.500 | 2.000 | 2.667 | 20.0% | 1 |
| vs LHP2PA | 1.000 | 1.500 | 2.000 | — | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away5PA | 1.250 | 1.750 | 2.350 | 40.0% | 1 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | BRL% | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day4PA | 1.250 | 1.750 | 2.250 | 28.6% | 1 |
| 🐾Night1PA | — | — | 1.000 | — | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty3PA | 1.500 | 2.000 | 2.667 | 1 |
| Runners On1PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| RISP1PA | — | — | — | 0 |
| Split | ISO | SLG | OPS | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 Outs1PA | 2.000 | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0 |
| 1 Out1PA | 3.000 | 4.000 | 5.000 | 1 |
| 2 Outs3PA | — | — | .333 | 0 |
🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.