Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

12.3%

+712

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Andrew Alvarez (LHP) (0.75 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

10.8%

+828

RBI 1+

34.2%

+193

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (2-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.4%

95% CI · 9.1–9.8%

+958

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
vs SP-15%
SP Contact+2%
SP Statcast-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Andrew Alvarez (LHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 111)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0233 · blended_2sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-15% (×0.85) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+2% (×1.02)

SP Statcast allowed-2% (×0.98)

Discipline-1% (×0.99)

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-14 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.8

Proj PA

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.125

wOBA

.290

wRC+

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Andrew Alvarez stingy: only 0.75 HR/9
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Rave.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Andrew Alvarez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

SLSlider
Use%
30
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
CUCurveball
Use%
28
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
26
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Andrew Alvarez (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	29.8	13.3	40.0	60	.406	16.2
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	27.7	0.0	57.1	79	.192	27.9
FF4-Seam Fastball	26.0	7.4	40.7	63	.427	11.1
SISinker	14.0	11.1	55.6	67	.326	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	12.5	37.5	50	.376	17.4	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.3	42.9	71	.444	14.3	11

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	57.1	71	.256	23.1	10
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	57.1	86	.163	29.2	22

FF4-Seam Fastball26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.3	45.8	63	.444	13.0	31

SISinker14% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	60	.282	—	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	25.0	50.0	75	.370	—	5

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.9% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .455). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

No splits returned yet for this player this season.

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Mon.