Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

15.1%

+561

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 79

2+ RBI

12.3%

+712

RBI 1+

35.6%

+181

Hits 1+

77.6%

-346

Hits 2+

38.9%

+157

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

35.8%

95% CI · 35.2–36.3%

+180

Fair odds

1st AB

10.4%

Through AB2

19.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-21%
Wind+3%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+25%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast+28%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·10 mph wind out to OF
·94F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0622 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-21% (×0.79)

Wind+3% (×1.03)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+25% (×1.25)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+28% (×1.28)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 3 HR

Now

+560

High

+685

Low

+215

Med

+405

Avg

+419

🐾🐾🐾+560

Low +215🐾 HR money zoneHigh +685

BELOW ZONEspot score 70

Longer price than he's homered at (+255 to +305). Model sees less pop tonight.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

24.3

Proj PA

349

HR / PA

.070

ISO

.309

wOBA

.427

wRC+

176

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

23.4

Hard%

52.6

FB%

48.0

Pull%

43.4

Soft%

8.2

GB%

27.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

28.6

Hard%

48.3

FB%

46.7

Pull%

41.7

Soft%

6.7

GB%

30.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

21.2

Hard%

54.4

FB%

48.5

Pull%

44.1

Soft%

8.8

GB%

25.7

Home

HR/FB

27.5

Hard%

58.0

FB%

40.0

Pull%

49.0

Soft%

6.0

GB%

31.0

🐾Away

HR/FB

20.4

Hard%

46.9

FB%

56.3

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

10.4

GB%

22.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kauffman Stadium suppresses HRs (79)
Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Elite power: .320 ISO
18.4% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
54.1% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 3/3 of SP's top pitches (FF, CH, FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (56% of career HRs)
95°F — ball flies in warm air
Park drag (79)
Elite barrel% (18.4)
High barrels/PA (12.0%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.383↑ vs season .34657 PA · 15d

OPS

1.172

ISO

.298

RBI

K-BB

11-9

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	5	3	2	6	0	0	1.800
06-10	@ LAA	4	1	0	0	0	1	.250
06-09	@ LAA	2	2	0	0	1	0	1.000
06-08	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	1	3	—
06-07	vs ATH	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-06	vs ATH	3	1	1	4	1	1	1.333
💣 369ft · 100.6 EV · Changeup
06-05	vs ATH	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-04	vs PIT	3	1	0	0	1	0	.667

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL10PA	.375	.553	40.0	100.0	60	7.7
🐾CHChangeup36PA	.264	.492	14.3	57.1	79	17.1
🐾FCCuttervL4PA	1.500	1.517	75.0	100.0	67	37.5
🐾CUCurveballvL11PA	.091	.367	0.0	33.3	83	38.5

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.375	.553	40.0	100.0	60	7.7	187	10
vs RHP	.446	.525	18.6	65.1	49	16.9	190	69

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.188	.515	16.0	56.0	76	15.2	190	34

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	1.500	1.517	75.0	100.0	67	37.5	187	4
vs RHP	.046	.308	5.9	35.3	59	12.8	190	25

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.091	.367	0.0	33.3	83	38.5	187	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.588	.725	28.6	71.4	86	27.6	190	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Alvarez.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 23 of 41 career HRs (56%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.320

Barrel %

18.4

Hard Hit %

54.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.489

xBA

.346

Brl / PA %

12.00

Max EV (mph)

117.8

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

116.2

Avg EV on HRs

107.1

Avg HR Distance (ft)

393

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

5/15

Crushed (105+ mph)

9/15

Avg LA on HRs

28.7°

Brl / PA %

12.00

Sampled across 15 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.553
Whiff%
7.7
HH%
100.0
BRL%
40.0
Pull%
60
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.492
Whiff%
17.1
HH%
57.1
BRL%
14.3
Pull%
79
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCuttervs LHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
1.517
Whiff%
37.5
HH%
100.0
BRL%
75.0
Pull%
67
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #9 (xwOBA .685). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

15 HRs this season

vs RHP 9vs LHP 6

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball6

CUCurveball3

SLSlider2

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

SVSlurve1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP222PA	.330	.654	1.104	17.4%	16
🐾vs LHP83PA	.356	.671	1.057	18.3%	8

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home149PA	.347	.710	1.180	15.9%	11
🐾Away156PA	.328	.609	1.006	19.6%	13

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day114PA	.258	.539	.978	13.2%	6
🐾Night191PA	.380	.724	1.153	19.9%	18

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty127PA	.246	.544	.914	7
Runners On132PA	.347	.663	1.140	10
RISP66PA	.405	.738	1.283	5

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs103PA	.477	.837	1.303	12
1 Out116PA	.279	.588	.993	7
2 Outs86PA	.246	.536	.966	5

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-042PA	.525	.825	1.158	6
1-014PA	.770	1.308	1.879	3
0-119PA	.316	.684	1.053	2
2-05PA	—	—	—	0
0-215PA	.067	.267	.467	0
3-024PA	1.000	1.333	2.250	1
1-246PA	.245	.489	.750	3
2-254PA	.189	.453	.712	3
3-240PA	.280	.600	1.175	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.