Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.8%

+827

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 97

2+ RBI

9.9%

+907

RBI 1+

33.4%

+199

Hits 1+

62.3%

-165

Hits 2+

20.1%

+397

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.0%

95% CI · 14.6–15.4%

+568

Fair odds

1st AB

4.1%

Through AB2

7.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind+9%
Temp+5%
vs SP-1%
Contact+1%
SP Contact-10%
Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Noah Cameron (LHP)

·15 mph wind out to OF
·92F game

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0388 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-1% (×0.99) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind+9% (×1.09)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+1% (×1.01)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 13 games · 2 HR

Now

+830

High

+1100

Low

+415

Med

+615

Avg

+642

🐾🐾+830

Low +415🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1100

🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

14.1

Proj PA

374

HR / PA

.038

ISO

.177

wOBA

.331

wRC+

110

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

10.1

Hard%

29.6

FB%

47.8

Pull%

53.8

Soft%

22.6

GB%

28.0

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.1

FB%

53.3

Pull%

46.7

Soft%

22.2

GB%

13.3

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.8

Hard%

29.1

FB%

46.1

Pull%

56.0

Soft%

22.7

GB%

32.6

Home

HR/FB

11.1

Hard%

30.3

FB%

50.6

Pull%

52.8

Soft%

23.6

GB%

25.8

🐾Away

HR/FB

9.1

Hard%

28.9

FB%

45.4

Pull%

54.6

Soft%

21.6

GB%

29.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Noah Cameron stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (39% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .822 OPS over last 15 days
93°F — ball flies in warm air
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.9%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.200↓ vs season .24257 PA · 15d

OPS

.822

ISO

.289

RBI

K-BB

12-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ KC	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-10	@ LAA	4	0	0	0	0	2	—
06-09	@ LAA	1	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-08	@ LAA	5	1	0	0	0	1	.400
06-07	vs ATH	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs ATH	3	2	0	1	1	0	1.000
06-05	vs ATH	2	1	1	4	1	1	2.000
💣 376ft · 103.9 EV · Sinker
06-04	vs PIT	4	1	1	1	0	1	1.000
💣 356ft · 101.3 EV · 4-Seamer

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL18PA	.118	.326	6.2	37.5	56	2.1
🐾CHChangeupvL9PA	.112	.396	0.0	25.0	63	16.0
🐾FCCutter25PA	.267	.498	6.7	20.0	80	8.3
🐾CUCurveballvL6PA	—	.322	50.0	50.0	100	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.118	.326	6.2	37.5	56	2.1	108	18
vs RHP	.207	.332	10.6	34.0	57	14.3	110	65

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.112	.396	0.0	25.0	63	16.0	108	9
vs RHP	.066	.161	0.0	20.0	80	29.4	110	17

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.285	.513	7.1	21.4	79	9.7	110	23

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.322	50.0	50.0	100	0.0	108	6
vs RHP	.300	.325	11.1	22.2	67	23.3	110	12

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Paredes.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 13 of 33 career HRs (39%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2#4

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.170

Barrel %

7.0

Hard Hit %

31.2

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.321

xBA

.242

Brl / PA %

4.90

Max EV (mph)

106.0

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

104.1

Avg EV on HRs

101.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

372

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/5

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/5

Avg LA on HRs

30.2°

Brl / PA %

4.90

Sampled across 5 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
29
xwOBA
.326
Whiff%
2.1
HH%
37.5
BRL%
6.2
Pull%
56
CHChangeupvs LHP
Use%
22
xwOBA
.396
Whiff%
16.0
HH%
25.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
63
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.498
Whiff%
8.3
HH%
20.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
80
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Noah Cameron (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	29.4	12.1	53.7	52	.369	10.6
CHChangeup	21.5	4.5	24.4	64	.275	21.4
FCCutter	19.1	5.9	40.0	77	.360	19.4
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	17.0	9.1	26.3	86	.159	28.7

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.3	16
vs RHB	9.1	54.5	50	.340	10.6	56

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	67	.136	33.3	8
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.9	24.4	63	.290	19.4	58

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	6.2	37.5	81	.281	25.0	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.7	40.0	74	.381	17.2	43

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.8	23.5	82	.160	27.5	41

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 28.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .329). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

5 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SISinker1

STSweeper1

FCCutter1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP204PA	.194	.417	.741	6.9%	9
🐾vs LHP66PA	.088	.351	.715	6.5%	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home133PA	.193	.404	.712	5.6%	5
🐾Away137PA	.144	.398	.756	7.8%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day103PA	.131	.424	.783	2.5%	1
🐾Night167PA	.193	.386	.703	10.0%	8

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty94PA	.122	.366	.706	2
Runners On130PA	.183	.385	.700	5
RISP69PA	.121	.345	.664	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs84PA	.214	.467	.800	4
1 Out98PA	.137	.375	.732	2
2 Outs88PA	.156	.364	.671	3

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-016PA	.800	1.267	1.767	3
1-011PA	.600	.900	1.264	2
0-122PA	.050	.400	.809	0
2-03PA	—	.333	.667	0
0-224PA	.042	.292	.542	0
3-08PA	—	1.000	2.000	0
1-232PA	.063	.219	.375	0
2-252PA	.080	.220	.374	1
3-250PA	.325	.595	1.055	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Sat.