Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.0%

+808

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (RHP) (0.99 HR/9) · park 127

2+ RBI

10.1%

+894

RBI 1+

33.5%

+198

Hits 1+

49.6%

+102

Hits 2+

10.2%

+884

Switch Hitter — Batting Side

🐾As LHB(vs RHP)TONIGHT

86wRC+

As RHB(vs LHP)

49wRC+

🐾 Stronger from the LEFT side (higher season wRC+). Tonight he hits LEFT-handed vs the RHP — his strong side.

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.1%

95% CI · 3.8–4.3%

+2359

Fair odds

1st AB

0.8%

Through AB2

1.5%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+27%
vs SP-34%
Contact-23%
SP Contact+4%
Statcast-17%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs José Soriano (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 127)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0149 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-34% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park+27% (×1.27)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-23% (×0.77)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-17% (×0.83)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+4% (×1.04)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 11 games

Now

+810

High

+1290

Low

+670

Med

+1085

Avg

+1020

+810

Low +670High +1290

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

3.7

Proj PA

214

HR / PA

.017

ISO

.110

wOBA

.274

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

20.4

FB%

49.5

Pull%

34.3

Soft%

14.8

GB%

34.0

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

6.4

FB%

61.0

Pull%

31.9

Soft%

19.1

GB%

22.0

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

31.1

FB%

41.1

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

11.5

GB%

42.9

Home

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

21.5

FB%

56.9

Pull%

33.8

Soft%

15.4

GB%

27.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

18.6

FB%

38.5

Pull%

34.9

Soft%

14.0

GB%

43.6

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Angel Stadium is a hitter's haven (+27 for SHB)
Hot streak: .667 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (127)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.280↑ vs season .17731 PA · 15d

OPS

.667

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

8-4

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ LAA	3	1	0	1	0	.333
06-10	vs BOS	3	2	1	0	0	.667
06-09	vs BOS	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs BOS	3	0	0	1	1	—
06-07	@ MIA	2	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-05	@ MIA	4	1	0	0	2	.250
06-01	vs DET	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR14PA	—	.411	0.0	36.4	55	10.7
🐾CUCurveball15PA	—	.117	0.0	—	50	31.6
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR42PA	.167	.281	11.5	46.2	54	20.5
🐾FSSplit-Finger	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.138	0.0	11.1	78	17.6	49	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	—	.411	0.0	36.4	55	10.7	86	14

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.164	0.0	0.0	50	0.0	49	8
vs RHP	no sample

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.062	.258	0.0	6.7	60	11.6	49	22
vs RHPTONIGHT	.167	.281	11.5	46.2	54	20.5	86	42

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

vs RHB

127

🐾vs SHB

106

Angel Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Walls.

Season Statcast

ISO

.069

Barrel %

2.8

Hard Hit %

17.6

xwOBA

.245

xBA

.177

Brl / PA %

1.70

Max EV (mph)

101.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.9

Avg EV on HRs

—

Avg HR Distance (ft)

—

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

—

Crushed (105+ mph)

—

Avg LA on HRs

—

Brl / PA %

1.70

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.411
Whiff%
10.7
HH%
36.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
55
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.117
Whiff%
31.6
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 15 PA this season.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
24
xwOBA
.281
Whiff%
20.5
HH%
46.2
BRL%
11.5
Pull%
54

Career vs José Soriano (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (2 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

José Soriano (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	26.5	9.3	47.3	69	.383	17.6
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.2	—	26.2	—	.249	26.3
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	18.0	47.9	50	.417	18.1
FSSplit-Finger	19.4	2.5	17.9	73	.200	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	11.1	58.3	72	.472	4.5	45
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	7.7	38.5	67	.311	25.8	52

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	20.0	50.0	57	.464	16.3	49
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.6	40

FSSplit-Finger19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	18.8	78	.197	25.3	56
vs RHB	12.5	25.0	50	.214	23.8	13

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.3% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .300). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP107PA	.087	.315	.645	6.3%	0
vs LHP71PA	.035	.228	.527	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home93PA	.104	.377	.737	6.0%	0
🐾Away85PA	.028	.181	.455	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day80PA	.058	.275	.570	5.4%	0
🐾Night98PA	.075	.288	.625	1.8%	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty67PA	.035	.175	.444
Runners On81PA	.093	.359	.727
RISP47PA	.083	.361	.733

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs50PA	.093	.372	.698
1 Out78PA	.045	.209	.469
2 Outs50PA	.077	.308	.708

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0-028PA	.154	.462	.747
1-09PA	—	.375	.708
0-114PA	.083	.583	1.012
2-03PA	—	—	—
0-211PA	—	—	—
3-03PA	—	—	1.000
1-224PA	—	.087	.212
2-230PA	.100	.267	.433
3-234PA	.048	.286	.815

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Away · Night · Sat.