Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.7%

+926

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) (0.83 HR/9) · park 94

2+ RBI

9.4%

+969

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

66.6%

-200

Hits 2+

24.6%

+306

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

9.5%

95% CI · 9.1–9.8%

+956

Fair odds

1st AB

2.2%

Through AB2

4.6%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-6%
vs SP-12%
Contact-10%
SP Contact-4%
Statcast-1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Connor Prielipp (LHP)

·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0300 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-12% (×0.88) · blended_proj

Park-6% (×0.94)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-10% (×0.90)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-1% (×0.99)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-4% (×0.96)

SP Statcast allowed+0% (×1.00)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 15 games · 1 HR

Now

+925

High

+1250

Low

+535

Med

+650

Avg

+790

🐾+925

Low +535🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1250

WARMspot score 75

Just below his HR money zone (+575 to +575). Close, not prime.

⚠ Thin sample (1 HR game) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

10.9

Proj PA

359

HR / PA

.030

ISO

.157

wOBA

.353

wRC+

127

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.7

Hard%

32.7

FB%

28.1

Pull%

42.3

Soft%

19.4

GB%

53.1

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

42.9

FB%

26.8

Pull%

46.4

Soft%

14.3

GB%

48.2

vs RHP

HR/FB

10.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

28.6

Pull%

40.7

Soft%

21.4

GB%

55.0

Home

HR/FB

16.7

Hard%

34.0

FB%

28.3

Pull%

49.1

Soft%

17.0

GB%

54.7

🐾Away

HR/FB

8.0

Hard%

31.1

FB%

27.8

Pull%

34.4

Soft%

22.2

GB%

51.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Connor Prielipp stingy: only 0.83 HR/9
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (SL)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (92% of career HRs)
15 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
High barrels/PA (4.3%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.271→ vs season .26859 PA · 15d

OPS

.761

ISO

.083

RBI

K-BB

7-6

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	@ MIN	5	2	0	0	0	.400
06-11	@ NYM	2	0	0	2	1	—
06-10	@ NYM	3	1	0	2	1	.333
06-09	@ NYM	3	3	0	0	0	1.333
06-07	vs CIN	4	0	0	0	1	—
06-06	vs CIN	4	1	0	0	0	.250
06-05	vs CIN	4	1	1	1	1	.250
06-03	vs TEX	5	1	0	0	1	.200

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SLSlidervL6PA	—	.447	0.0	50.0	50	11.1
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL28PA	.143	.362	5.3	52.6	63	18.5
🐾CUCurveballvL14PA	.307	.327	9.1	54.5	64	8.7
🐾CHChangeupvL11PA	.273	.515	10.0	60.0	50	22.2

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.447	0.0	50.0	50	11.1	164	6
vs RHP	.286	.439	26.7	60.0	67	38.3	119	27

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.143	.362	5.3	52.6	63	18.5	164	28
vs RHP	.128	.383	8.1	29.7	38	11.2	119	56

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	.307	.327	9.1	54.5	64	8.7	164	14
vs RHP	—	.321	0.0	0.0	20	16.7	119	7

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.273	.515	10.0	60.0	50	22.2	164	11
vs RHP	.066	.352	11.1	66.7	78	30.8	119	19

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

107

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

100

Target Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Herrera.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 13 career HRs (92%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.148

Barrel %

6.6

Hard Hit %

40.8

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.363

xBA

.268

Brl / PA %

4.30

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.2°

Brl / PA %

4.30

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Connor Prielipp · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 ELITE EXPLOIT

SLSlidervs LHP
Use%
32
xwOBA
.447
Whiff%
11.1
HH%
50.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
31
xwOBA
.362
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
52.6
BRL%
5.3
Pull%
63
CUCurveballvs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.327
Whiff%
8.7
HH%
54.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
64

Connor Prielipp (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SLSlider	31.7	12.8	43.6	51	.293	19.6
FF4-Seam Fastball	30.6	8.3	30.6	33	.397	10.0
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	20.0	90	.074	23.8
CHChangeup	12.6	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SLSlider32% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	21.1	47.4	42	.314	17.9	28
vs RHB	5.0	40.0	60	.278	20.6	38

FF4-Seam Fastball31% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	33.3	66.7	33	.494	20.0	11
vs RHB	3.3	23.3	33	.361	6.8	41

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	75	.127	5.3	5
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	16.7	100	.061	31.8	21

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	13.6	50.0	73	.367	16.0	28

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 23.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (MIN)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Target Field (339/411/328 ft) · elev 815ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SI🐾Sinker2

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP218PA	.133	.387	.759	6.9%	4
🐾vs LHP87PA	.177	.471	.919	8.6%	3

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home155PA	.168	.397	.739	7.4%	5
🐾Away150PA	.119	.424	.871	7.4%	2

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day124PA	.172	.394	.765	9.3%	3
Night181PA	.127	.420	.829	6.0%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty124PA	.160	.443	.830	4
Runners On133PA	.128	.363	.761	2
RISP72PA	.105	.298	.631	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs100PA	.165	.418	.828	3
1 Out123PA	.130	.410	.808	2
2 Outs82PA	.143	.400	.766	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-037PA	.323	.710	1.169	3
1-09PA	.143	.286	.619	0
0-131PA	.226	.516	.806	1
2-06PA	.167	.500	.833	0
0-234PA	.129	.323	.558	1
3-015PA	1.000	2.000	3.000	0
1-237PA	.029	.286	.583	0
2-245PA	.089	.267	.444	1
3-244PA	.094	.344	.798	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Day · Sat.