Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

11.2%

+790

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Noah Cameron (1.03 HR/9) · park 97

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

10.2%

+882

RBI 1+

33.6%

+197

Hits 1+

66.5%

-198

Hits 2+

24.4%

+309

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.1%

95% CI · 11.7–12.4%

+728

Fair odds

1st AB

3.4%

Through AB2

6.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-3%
Wind-2%
vs SP+3%
Lineup+3%
Contact+5%
SP Contact-6%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·Big bats hitting behind

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0306 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+3% (×1.03) · blended_proj

Park-3% (×0.97)

Wind-2% (×0.98)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)+5% (×1.05)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+860

High

+1440

Low

+525

Med

+870

Avg

+869

+860

Low +525High +1440

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.7

Proj PA

259

HR / PA

.034

ISO

.167

wOBA

.352

wRC+

125

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

11.6

Hard%

32.5

FB%

33.9

Pull%

39.3

Soft%

21.1

GB%

48.9

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

38.8

FB%

40.0

Pull%

38.8

Soft%

17.6

GB%

36.5

vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

29.7

FB%

31.3

Pull%

39.5

Soft%

22.6

GB%

54.4

Home

HR/FB

10.7

Hard%

29.2

FB%

36.4

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

20.8

GB%

49.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

12.8

Hard%

36.5

FB%

31.0

Pull%

34.1

Soft%

21.4

GB%

48.4

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #2 (92% of career HRs)
High barrels/PA (4.6%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.267→ vs season .26760 PA · 15d

OPS

.872

ISO

.155

RBI

K-BB

5-8

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs SD	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-16	vs SD	3	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-15	vs SD	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-14	@ MIN	3	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-13	@ MIN	3	2	2	3	1	0	2.667
💣 403ft · 103.6 EV · Sinker💣 417ft · 105.3 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	@ MIN	5	2	0	0	0	0	.400
06-11	@ NYM	2	0	0	0	2	1	—
06-10	@ NYM	3	1	0	0	2	1	.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball89PA	.129	.390	8.1	37.9	48	14.5
🐾CHChangeup34PA	.134	.368	8.3	54.2	71	22.4
🐾FCCutter22PA	.096	.346	0.0	44.4	50	14.0
🐾CUCurveball27PA	.208	.324	6.2	35.0	50	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.261	.406	9.5	52.4	62	17.9	170	31
vs RHP	.117	.385	7.3	31.7	42	10.3	122	62

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.250	.488	9.1	54.5	55	21.4	170	12
vs RHP	.052	.305	7.7	53.8	85	24.2	122	23

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.059	.320	0.0	33.3	47	17.5	122	17

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.307	.354	9.1	54.5	64	11.5	170	15
vs RHP	—	.321	0.0	0.0	20	16.7	122	7

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Kauffman Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Herrera.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected12 of 13 HRs · 92%

🐾 Hottest from spot #2 — 12 of 13 career HRs (92%).

🐾

Hot spots:#2

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.159

Barrel %

6.9

Hard Hit %

41.7

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.369

xBA

.267

Brl / PA %

4.60

Max EV (mph)

112.3

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Avg EV on HRs

104.4

Avg HR Distance (ft)

402

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/6

Crushed (105+ mph)

2/6

Avg LA on HRs

25.2°

Brl / PA %

4.60

Sampled across 6 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Noah Cameron · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.390
Whiff%
14.5
HH%
37.9
BRL%
8.1
Pull%
48
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
CHChangeup
Use%
22
xwOBA
.368
Whiff%
22.4
HH%
54.2
BRL%
8.3
Pull%
71
FCCutter
Use%
19
xwOBA
.346
Whiff%
14.0
HH%
44.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
50

Career vs Noah Cameron

🐾 Tonight's matchup

.333AVG · small sample (4 PA)

OPS

.833

RBI

K-BB

0-1

Noah Cameron arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.5	10.8	52.5	55	.362	9.8
CHChangeup	21.9	4.3	22.7	60	.262	20.0
FCCutter	19.4	5.3	37.0	74	.354	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	17.1	13.0	30.0	87	.185	26.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	21.4	64.3	57	.480	8.0	16
vs RHB	7.8	52.9	55	.334	9.9	63

CHChangeup22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	0.0	50	.119	30.8	9
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	4.7	23.3	61	.280	18.3	61

FCCutter19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	5.9	35.3	77	.306	27.3	22
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	5.0	40.0	73	.374	14.3	48

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	20.0	100	.153	25.0	8
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	27.8	83	.190	25.6	42

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 26.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #4 (xwOBA .434). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (KC)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Kauffman Stadium (330/410/330 ft) · elev 750ft

6 HRs this season

vs RHP 3vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF🐾4-Seam Fastball2

SI🐾Sinker2

CHChangeup1

CUCurveball1

Bats R · Pull side: LF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought🐾 DUE

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 4.0 games · 18 PA (2 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP233PA	.141	.391	.764	6.9%	5
vs LHP94PA	.208	.500	.957	9.5%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home168PA	.158	.379	.724	6.8%	5
🐾Away159PA	.162	.468	.921	8.6%	4

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day137PA	.213	.444	.831	10.5%	5
🐾Night190PA	.122	.404	.809	5.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty132PA	.177	.460	.846	5
Runners On142PA	.149	.380	.781	3
RISP76PA	.102	.288	.630	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs108PA	.190	.440	.857	4
1 Out129PA	.122	.396	.784	2
2 Outs90PA	.175	.432	.821	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.