Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

10.3%

+871

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Martín Pérez (0.87 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

9.7%

+935

RBI 1+

33.1%

+202

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

4.2%

95% CI · 3.9–4.4%

+2304

Fair odds

1st AB

1.0%

Through AB2

2.1%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Wind+15%
vs SP-9%
SP Contact-2%
SP Statcast-3%
Discipline+1%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·20 mph wind out to OF

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0102 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-9% (×0.91) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)

Statcast (barrel/EV)0% (×1.00)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-2% (×0.98)

SP Statcast allowed-3% (×0.97)

Discipline+1% (×1.01)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+870

High

+1080

Low

+400

Med

+770

Avg

+744

+870

Low +400High +1080

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

0.2

Proj PA

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.132

wOBA

.294

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

22.2

FB%

55.6

Pull%

44.4

Soft%

33.3

GB%

44.4

🐾Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

25.0

FB%

50.0

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

37.5

GB%

50.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

3.0 🐾

LEAN

Martín Pérez stingy: only 0.87 HR/9
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
High barrels/PA (6.2%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.000↓ vs season .2504 PA · 15d

OPS

.250

ISO

—

RBI

K-BB

1-1

Game Log · Last 7

Date	Opp	AB	BB	K	SLG
06-10	vs WSH	1	0	1	—
06-09	vs WSH	1	0	0	—
06-06	@ CHC	0	1	0	—
06-05	@ CHC	1	0	0	—
06-04	@ MIL	0	0	0	—
06-02	@ MIL	3	0	2	—
06-01	@ MIL	1	0	0	—

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

vs LHB

100

🐾vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Kennedy.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #6 — 1 of 1 career HRs (100%).

🐾

Hot spots:#6

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

Barrel %

7.5

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

6.18

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Martín Pérez · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Unknown

CHChangeup
Use%
33
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
SISinker
Use%
30
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
22
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—

Martín Pérez arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
CHChangeup	32.6	7.6	23.0	83	.275	18.7
SISinker	30.3	8.1	47.3	76	.388	12.0
FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY	21.5	7.3	43.2	49	.299	30.8
CUCurveball	9.3	0.0	45.5	73	.312	—

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

CHChangeup33% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	12.5	37.5	88	.190	21.2	21
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	6.9	20.7	83	.300	16.0	76

SISinker30% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	8.8	38.2	77	.430	5.9	41
vs RHB	7.1	53.6	75	.345	15.2	42

FCCutter⚡ PUT-AWAY22% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	0.0	25	.128	20.0	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	8.1	48.6	51	.323	35.1	54

CUCurveball9% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	60.0	80	.238	0.0	5
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	67	.373	—	6

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.8% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .480). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP2PA	—	—	—	—	0
vs LHP6PA	—	—	.167	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home2PA	—	—	—	—	0
🐾Away6PA	—	—	.167	—	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day3PA	—	—	.333	—	0
🐾Night5PA	—	—	—	—	0

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
Bases Empty2PA	—	—	—
Runners On4PA	—	—	.250
RISP2PA	—	—	.500

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS
0 Outs2PA	—	—	—
1 Out4PA	—	—	.250
2 Outs2PA	—	—	—

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.