Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.7%

+465

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Luis Castillo (RHP) (1.18 HR/9) · park 111

2+ RBI

13.7%

+628

RBI 1+

36.9%

+171

Hits 1+

70.0%

-234

Hits 2+

28.5%

+251

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.5%

95% CI · 15.1–16.0%

+543

Fair odds

1st AB

4.3%

Through AB2

8.4%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+11%
Temp+5%
vs SP+5%
Contact-9%
SP Contact+7%
Statcast+4%
SP Statcast+4%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Luis Castillo (RHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 111)
·90F game
·Soft contact profile (home) — below league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0332 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+5% (×1.05) · blended_proj

Park+11% (×1.11)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-9% (×0.91)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+4% (×1.04)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+7% (×1.07)

SP Statcast allowed+4% (×1.04)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 12 games · 2 HR

Now

+465

High

+1145

Low

+560

Med

+870

Avg

+838

🐾🐾+465

Low +560🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1145

🐾 PRIME+ SPOTspot score 100

Even shorter than his HR range — likelier than when he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.5

Proj PA

275

HR / PA

.035

ISO

.171

wOBA

.330

wRC+

109

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

14.0

Hard%

39.8

FB%

32.4

Pull%

43.2

Soft%

12.5

GB%

46.6

vs LHP

HR/FB

40.0

Hard%

44.4

FB%

27.8

Pull%

50.0

Soft%

0.0

GB%

55.6

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

11.5

Hard%

39.2

FB%

32.9

Pull%

42.4

Soft%

13.9

GB%

45.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

6.7

Hard%

32.5

FB%

37.5

Pull%

37.5

Soft%

13.8

GB%

41.3

Away

HR/FB

22.2

Hard%

45.8

FB%

28.1

Pull%

47.9

Soft%

11.5

GB%

51.0

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Nationals Park mild HR boost (+11)
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FF)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #3 (53% of career HRs)
Hot streak: .877 OPS over last 15 days
90°F — ball flies in warm air
Park boost (111)
High barrels/PA (6.5%)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.0% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.244↓ vs season .29047 PA · 15d

OPS

.877

ISO

.356

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs SEA	4	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-10	@ SF	2	1	0	1	0	1	1.000
06-09	@ SF	3	1	1	2	0	1	1.333
💣 382ft · 106.4 EV · Curveball
06-08	@ SF	4	2	0	1	0	1	.750
06-07	@ ARI	4	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-06	@ ARI	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-05	@ ARI	6	2	2	6	0	0	1.333
💣 427ft · 103.9 EV · Slider💣 363ft · 99.0 EV · Cutter
06-03	vs MIA	2	0	0	0	1	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvR57PA	.227	.405	12.2	51.0	47	11.3
🐾SLSlidervR31PA	.100	.270	0.0	30.4	61	31.8
🐾SISinkervR26PA	.217	.373	9.1	54.5	64	—
🐾CHChangeupvR40PA	.150	.284	6.1	36.4	73	20.8

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.227	.405	12.2	51.0	47	11.3	105	57

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP🐾 CRUSHES	.300	.621	22.2	22.2	78	20.0	119	10
vs RHPTONIGHT	.100	.270	0.0	30.4	61	31.8	105	31

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.220	0.0	66.7	83	5.6	119	8
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHESTONIGHT	.217	.373	9.1	54.5	64	0.0	105	26

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.150	.284	6.1	36.4	73	20.8	105	40

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

111

vs RHB

vs SHB

Nationals Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Jr..

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #3 — 8 of 15 career HRs (53%).

🐾

Hot spots:#3

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.202

Barrel %

8.0

Hard Hit %

48.3

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.337

xBA

.290

Brl / PA %

6.50

Max EV (mph)

111.2

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

107.4

Avg EV on HRs

102.9

Avg HR Distance (ft)

388

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/3

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/3

Avg LA on HRs

27.3°

Brl / PA %

6.50

Sampled across 3 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Luis Castillo · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs RHP
Use%
46
xwOBA
.405
Whiff%
11.3
HH%
51.0
BRL%
12.2
Pull%
47
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.
SLSlidervs RHP
Use%
25
xwOBA
.270
Whiff%
31.8
HH%
30.4
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
61
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 31 PA this season.
SISinkervs RHP
Use%
17
xwOBA
.373
Whiff%
0.0
HH%
54.5
BRL%
9.1
Pull%
64

Career vs Luis Castillo (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (3 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

Luis Castillo (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	45.7	14.1	49.3	47	.334	18.5
SLSlider	24.7	7.1	42.1	71	.305	13.1
SISinker	17.0	9.6	50.0	65	.431	12.5
CHChangeup	12.5	10.0	44.0	80	.310	7.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball⚡ PUT-AWAY46% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	15.3	54.2	48	.379	15.5	90
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.5	46.2	46	.258	21.3	56

SLSlider25% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	55.0	75	.347	13.8	31
vs RHB	4.5	27.3	68	.259	13.2	32

SISinker17% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	22.2	55.6	56	.542	0.0	12
vs RHB	7.0	53.5	67	.407	13.5	51

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	9.1	40.9	77	.324	2.6	23
vs RHB	12.5	37.5	88	.266	18.2	12

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 18.5% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #3 (xwOBA .447). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (WSH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Nationals Park (336/402/335 ft) · elev 50ft

3 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 1

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

FF4-Seam Fastball1

STSweeper1

SISinker1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP196PA	.192	.449	.735	8.3%	6
vs LHP25PA	.240	.520	.800	13.6%	2

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home103PA	.142	.364	.616	8.2%	2
Away118PA	.248	.540	.854	9.4%	6

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Day104PA	.168	.455	.763	9.2%	2
Night117PA	.225	.459	.724	8.6%	6

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty83PA	.134	.317	.510	1
Runners On102PA	.221	.547	.910	5
RISP54PA	.113	.453	.786	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs85PA	.271	.580	.921	5
1 Out74PA	.155	.423	.707	1
2 Outs62PA	.150	.333	.543	2

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-037PA	.352	.703	1.054	1
1-019PA	—	.278	.541	0
0-129PA	.207	.586	.966	1
2-04PA	—	.250	.500	0
0-221PA	.048	.238	.429	0
3-02PA	3.000	4.000	5.000	1
1-239PA	.154	.333	.513	2
2-235PA	.172	.343	.514	1
3-220PA	—	.143	.543	0

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Day · Sat.