Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

9.8%

+915

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs José Soriano (0.93 HR/9) · park 95

Batting #6Projected lineup

2+ RBI

9.4%

+962

RBI 1+

32.9%

+204

Hits 1+

61.8%

-162

Hits 2+

19.6%

+409

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

12.4%

95% CI · 12.1–12.8%

+704

Fair odds

1st AB

2.3%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
vs SP-35%
Contact+17%
SP Contact+11%
Statcast-5%
Discipline-2%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
·SP allows hard, pulled fly balls (HR-prone contact)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0344 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-35% (×0.66) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+17% (×1.17)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+11% (×1.11)

SP Statcast allowed-0% (×1.00)

Discipline-2% (×0.98)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+610

High

+5485

Low

+355

Med

+585

Avg

+1104

+610

Low +355High +5485

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

8.5

Proj PA

218

HR / PA

.039

ISO

.186

wOBA

.328

wRC+

106

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.2

Hard%

32.3

FB%

24.7

Pull%

37.7

Soft%

16.8

GB%

51.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

21.2

FB%

15.2

Pull%

45.5

Soft%

15.2

GB%

66.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

13.9

Hard%

35.1

FB%

27.1

Pull%

35.8

Soft%

17.2

GB%

47.4

🐾Home

HR/FB

18.5

Hard%

39.5

FB%

31.8

Pull%

33.7

Soft%

23.3

GB%

50.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

24.7

FB%

17.3

Pull%

42.0

Soft%

9.9

GB%

51.9

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (91% of career HRs)
14 mph wind — check direction relative to spray

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.270↑ vs season .23938 PA · 15d

OPS

.721

ISO

.162

RBI

K-BB

12-1

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	vs PIT	4	0	0	0	0	4	—
06-16	vs PIT	3	1	0	1	0	0	.667
06-15	vs PIT	4	2	0	1	0	1	.750
06-14	vs COL	5	2	0	0	0	1	.400
06-13	vs COL	1	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-12	vs COL	2	2	0	1	1	0	1.500
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 463ft · 106.1 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs MIL	2	0	0	0	0	0	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinker34PA	.031	.286	4.3	54.5	70	18.5
🐾CUCurveball12PA	—	.039	—	33.3	—	40.0
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball65PA	.104	.309	5.1	59.0	49	31.3
🐾FSSplit-Finger13PA	—	.174	0.0	11.1	75	33.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.169	0.0	50.0	90	6.7	25	15
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.055	.368	7.7	53.8	54	19.0	61	20

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.022	0.0	100.0	100	47.6	61	11

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.304	0.0	0.0	100	7.1	25	9
vs RHP	.109	.310	5.6	63.9	44	28.2	61	59

FSSplit-Finger

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	—	.183	0.0	12.5	75	26.7	61	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Sutter Health Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Butler.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #6Projected2 of 35 HRs · 6%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 32 of 35 career HRs (91%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.098

Barrel %

6.3

Hard Hit %

44.9

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.300

xBA

.239

Brl / PA %

3.90

Max EV (mph)

112.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

3.90

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

José Soriano · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

SISinker
Use%
26
xwOBA
.286
Whiff%
18.5
HH%
54.5
BRL%
4.3
Pull%
70
CUCurveball
Use%
25
xwOBA
.039
Whiff%
40.0
HH%
33.3
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
24
xwOBA
.309
Whiff%
31.3
HH%
59.0
BRL%
5.1
Pull%
49

Career vs José Soriano

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

0-0

José Soriano arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	25.7	9.0	49.4	69	.395	16.7
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	25.4	—	26.2	—	.240	27.2
FF4-Seam Fastball	23.5	17.0	47.1	51	.412	17.5
FSSplit-Finger	20.1	2.2	18.2	73	.194	25.5

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.3	61.5	72	.481	4.2	49
vs RHB	7.7	38.5	67	.318	25.0	53

FF4-Seam Fastball24% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	48.5	58	.453	15.7	52
vs RHB	15.0	40.0	40	.354	22.2	40

FSSplit-Finger20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	19.4	78	.195	24.7	61
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	11.1	22.2	56	.190	26.1	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 27.2% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 26 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP167PA	.113	.305	.574	8.2%	4
vs LHP36PA	.032	.188	.438	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home106PA	.176	.392	.675	11.4%	4
Away97PA	.012	.163	.410	1.6%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day79PA	.028	.225	.503	3.8%	0
🐾Night124PA	.142	.321	.579	8.5%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty63PA	.070	.228	.466	1
Runners On84PA	.148	.351	.649	3
RISP44PA	.271	.514	.878	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs72PA	.088	.279	.515	1
1 Out66PA	.120	.310	.598	2
2 Outs65PA	.088	.263	.540	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Home · Night · Thu.