Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

14.2%

+605

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) (2.21 HR/9) · park 95

2+ RBI

11.8%

+747

RBI 1+

35.1%

+185

Hits 1+

62.6%

-168

Hits 2+

20.5%

+389

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

15.4%

95% CI · 15.0–15.8%

+548

Fair odds

1st AB

4.4%

Through AB2

8.8%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park-5%
Temp+5%
vs SP+27%
Contact+16%
SP Contact-6%
Statcast-5%
SP Statcast+1%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Kyle Freeland (LHP)

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·87F game
·Elite batted-ball profile (home) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0360 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+27% (×1.27) · blended_proj

Park-5% (×0.95)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)+16% (×1.16)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-5% (×0.95)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

SP Statcast allowed+1% (×1.01)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 14 games

Now

+605

High

+2495

Low

+470

Med

+778

Avg

+916

+605

Low +470High +2495

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-12 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

9.4

Proj PA

251

HR / PA

.037

ISO

.181

wOBA

.326

wRC+

103

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-06-12 · FG

Season

HR/FB

12.9

Hard%

33.6

FB%

27.0

Pull%

34.5

Soft%

16.4

GB%

48.7

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

28.6

FB%

14.3

Pull%

47.6

Soft%

14.3

GB%

71.4

vs RHP

HR/FB

14.3

Hard%

34.7

FB%

29.8

Pull%

31.6

Soft%

16.8

GB%

43.6

🐾Home

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

41.1

FB%

36.4

Pull%

32.1

Soft%

21.4

GB%

43.6

Away

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

26.7

FB%

18.3

Pull%

36.7

Soft%

11.7

GB%

53.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Kyle Freeland is leaky — 2.21 HR/9 allowed
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (FC)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (91% of career HRs)
87°F — ball flies in warm air
Pitcher HR-prone (2.21 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.240→ vs season .24427 PA · 15d

OPS

.696

ISO

.160

RBI

K-BB

5-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-12	vs COL	2	2	0	1	1	0	1.500
06-10	vs MIL	4	1	1	2	0	1	1.000
💣 463ft · 106.1 EV · Cutter
06-09	vs MIL	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-08	vs MIL	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ HOU	4	2	0	0	0	1	.500
06-06	@ HOU	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-04	@ CHC	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
06-03	@ CHC	4	0	0	0	0	2	—

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam FastballvL9PA	—	.304	0.0	—	100	7.1
🐾CUCurveball	—	—	—	—	—	—
🐾FCCutter21PA	.236	.419	13.3	35.7	53	28.6
🐾CHChangeup22PA	—	.329	10.0	38.9	80	38.1

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.304	0.0	0.0	100	7.1	17	9
vs RHP	.082	.307	3.0	63.6	46	26.6	46	53

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.267	.447	16.7	41.7	67	25.7	46	19

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.143	.343	11.1	33.3	78	34.0	46	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

vs RHB

114

vs SHB

104

Las Vegas Ballpark. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Butler.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 32 of 35 career HRs (91%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast

ISO

.091

Barrel %

6.0

Hard Hit %

46.1

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.307

xBA

.244

Brl / PA %

3.80

Max EV (mph)

112.7

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

105.6

Avg EV on HRs

101.8

Avg HR Distance (ft)

385

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/4

Crushed (105+ mph)

1/4

Avg LA on HRs

31.3°

Brl / PA %

3.80

Sampled across 4 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Kyle Freeland · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 LEAN EXPLOIT

FF4-Seam Fastballvs LHP
Use%
27
xwOBA
.304
Whiff%
7.1
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
100
CUCurveball
Use%
23
xwOBA
—
Whiff%
—
HH%
—
BRL%
—
Pull%
—
FCCutter
Use%
18
xwOBA
.419
Whiff%
28.6
HH%
35.7
BRL%
13.3
Pull%
53
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Kyle Freeland (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	27.2	11.5	42.9	60	.450	8.8
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	22.6	—	52.6	—	.382	19.7
FCCutter	17.9	12.9	33.3	71	.363	16.7
CHChangeup	15.9	6.7	51.2	60	.371	15.6

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball27% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	44.4	56	.359	4.3	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	14.0	39.5	61	.465	11.3	58

FCCutter18% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	16.7	67	.429	16.7	7
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.0	40.0	72	.348	15.0	29

CHChangeup16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	6.7	51.1	60	.372	14.0	54

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 19.7% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .435). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATH)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Sutter Health Park (325/403/325 ft) · elev 27ft

4 HRs this season

vs RHP 4vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SL🐾Slider2

CHChangeup1

FF4-Seam Fastball1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP151PA	.111	.289	.554	8.0%	4
🐾vs LHP35PA	.033	.194	.451	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home89PA	.188	.388	.669	12.1%	4
Away97PA	.012	.163	.410	1.6%	0

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day74PA	.030	.212	.482	4.2%	0
🐾Night112PA	.140	.310	.569	8.1%	4

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty59PA	.076	.208	.428	1
Runners On75PA	.138	.338	.645	3
RISP39PA	.281	.531	.916	3

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs64PA	.100	.300	.550	1
1 Out62PA	.130	.315	.605	2
2 Outs60PA	.057	.192	.442	1

Count

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0-029PA	.345	.690	1.034	3
1-011PA	—	.182	.364	0
0-113PA	—	.077	.154	0
2-05PA	—	.200	.400	0
0-210PA	—	—	—	0
3-05PA	—	—	1.000	0
1-231PA	.032	.097	.161	0
2-234PA	.088	.235	.382	1
3-233PA	.143	.381	.896	1

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Home · Night · Sat.