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Michael Harris IILHB
ATL
📅 Tomorrow2:10 PM MT · Citi Field
Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.
Home Run
18.3%
+445
🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾
Big Dawg Energy
vs TBD (1.20 HR/9) · park 99
2+ RBI
14.1%
+610
RBI 1+
37.2%
+169
Hits 1+
72.2%
-260
Hits 2+
31.3%
+220
FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo
30k iter
23.8%
95% CI · 23.3–24.3%
+320
Fair odds
1st AB
6.1%
Through AB2
12.6%
Best window
Early
What shifted the projection
  • Park-1%
  • Temp+5%
  • Contact+20%
  • Statcast+24%
🎯 Early-AB cues
  • ·90F game
  • ·Elite batted-ball profile (away) — Pull/Hard/FB/HR-FB above league
  • ·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)
▸Model inputs
Base HR/PA0.0386 · blended_3sys
TTO rampconstant
Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant
vs SP (HR/9)0% (×1.00) · no_pitcher
Park-1% (×0.99)
Wind0% (×1.00)
Temp+5% (×1.05)
Lineup0% (×1.00)
Contact (batted-ball)+20% (×1.20)
Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)
Pitch match0% (×1.00)
SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)
SP contact (batted-ball)0% (×1.00)
SP Statcast allowed0% (×1.00)
Discipline+0% (×1.00)
HR Odds History
Price range · 14 games · 2 HR
Now
+445
High
+1020
Low
+270
Med
+585
Avg
+566
🐾🐾+445
Low +270🐾 HR money zoneHigh +1020
🐾 PRIME SPOTspot score 100

Tonight's price is in his money zone — he's gone yard 2× priced here.

⚠ Thin sample (2 HR games) — a hint, not a lock.

Recent — tap a game

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)
Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)
2026-06-12 · THE BAT X
Proj HR (RoS)
14.2
Proj PA
359
HR / PA
.040
ISO
.188
wOBA
.336
wRC+
113
2026 Contact Profile
🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-12 · FG
Season
HR/FB
17.8
Hard%
40.3
FB%
39.7
Pull%
34.4
Soft%
15.6
GB%
41.8
vs LHP
HR/FB
15.4
Hard%
27.9
FB%
39.4
Pull%
36.8
Soft%
17.6
GB%
40.9
vs RHP
HR/FB
19.1
Hard%
47.5
FB%
39.8
Pull%
33.1
Soft%
14.4
GB%
42.4
Home
HR/FB
8.6
Hard%
31.7
FB%
42.7
Pull%
32.9
Soft%
19.5
GB%
41.5
🐾Away
HR/FB
26.3
Hard%
47.1
FB%
37.3
Pull%
35.6
Soft%
12.5
GB%
42.2

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick
5.0 🐾
ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY
  • 15.1% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
  • 52.2% hard-hit — punisher
  • Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (80% of career HRs)
  • 90°F — ball flies in warm air
  • Elite barrel% (15.1)
  • High barrels/PA (11.4%)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days
🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup
.318↑ vs season .30548 PA · 15d
OPS
.761
ISO
.068
HR
0
RBI
7
K-BB
11-4
Game Log · Last 8
DateOppABHHRRBIBBKSLG
06-12@ NYM510003.200
06-10@ CHW500003—
06-09@ CHW530000.600
06-07vs PIT1103002.000
06-05vs PIT520002.400
06-04vs TOR310011.667
06-03vs TOR400000—
06-02vs TOR410100.500
vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4
PitchISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%
FC18PA.412.51022.241.26115.8
CH35PA.258.43617.646.96825.4
FF50PA.227.37610.354.14121.4
SI43PA.025.3704.755.35616.0
Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP
FCCutter
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.667.52533.366.75012.51296
vs RHP.250.50516.733.36712.113913
CHChangeup
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHPno sample
vs RHP.176.40316.141.96526.813934
FF4-Seam Fastball
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP—.1460.020.05021.612916
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES.303.48513.865.53816.113937
SISinker
SplitISOxwOBABRL%HH%Pull%Whiff%wRC+PA
vs LHP.036.3583.850.05411.912930
vs RHP—.3905.970.65910.013920
Ballpark — Tonight's Venue
🐾vs LHB
99
vs RHB
111
vs SHB
105

Citi Field. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches II.

HR by Lineup Spot
🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 12 of 15 career HRs (80%).
12
1
🐾
2
·
3
·
1
4
·
5
·
2
6
·
7
·
8
·
9
·
Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast.

Season Statcast
ISO
.207
Barrel %
15.1
Hard Hit %
52.2
Pull % (HRs)
88
xwOBA
.383
xBA
.305
Brl / PA %
11.40
Max EV (mph)
114.9
Exit Velocity Profile
Max EV (mph)
110.7
Avg EV on HRs
106.0
Avg HR Distance (ft)
395
HRs in sample
8
No-doubters (110+ mph)
2/8
Crushed (105+ mph)
4/8
Avg LA on HRs
26.1°
Brl / PA %
11.40

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Strike Zone Heatmap
🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal
.41.46.30.41.49🐾.37.31.37.48
🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .490). Hover any cell for detail.
Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.
Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)
🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYM)
CFLFRF335ft408ft330ftSLFFSTSTFCSLCHST
Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.
Overlay: Citi Field (335/408/330 ft) · elev 33ft
8 HRs this season
vs RHP 5vs LHP 3
Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)
ST🐾Sweeper3
SLSlider2
FF4-Seam Fastball1
FCCutter1
CHChangeup1
Bats L · Pull side: RF
Splits — Today's Matchup
Handedness
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
vs RHP157PA.213.520.85118.0%9
vs LHP93PA.184.483.8279.6%4
Location
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
Home111PA.124.362.63211.0%3
🐾Away139PA.265.6211.00918.2%10
Time
SplitISOSLGOPSBRL%HR
🐾Day65PA.134.367.65912.7%2
Night185PA.226.554.90515.9%11
Base State
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
Bases Empty75PA.166.444.7514
Runners On102PA.276.585.9386
RISP52PA.108.391.7370
Outs
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0 Outs96PA.263.6261.0117
1 Out81PA.187.450.7224
2 Outs73PA.136.409.7512
Count
SplitISOSLGOPSHR
0-034PA.264.588.9123
1-019PA.167.6671.1931
0-134PA.206.6181.0291
2-010PA.100.300.5000
0-233PA.094.250.4021
3-04PA——1.0000
1-246PA.326.630.9354
2-228PA.107.286.4641
3-221PA.063.125.4110

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Day · Sat.