Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

13.2%

+659

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Landen Roupp (RHP) (0.49 HR/9) · park 100

Batting #2Projected lineup

2+ RBI

11.2%

+789

RBI 1+

34.6%

+189

Hits 1+

72.6%

-265

Hits 2+

31.8%

+214

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

16.1%

95% CI · 15.6–16.5%

+523

Fair odds

1st AB

3.2%

Through AB2

6.2%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Wind+15%
vs SP-33%
Lineup+3%
Contact-6%
SP Contact-11%
Statcast+24%
SP Statcast-7%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Landen Roupp (RHP)

·SP suppresses HRs (blended_proj)
·20 mph wind out to OF
·Big bats hitting behind
·Elite Statcast power (barrel%/EV/bat speed above league)

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0394 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-33% (×0.67) · blended_proj

Park0% (×1.00)

Wind+15% (×1.15)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup+3% (×1.03)

Contact (batted-ball)-6% (×0.94)

Statcast (barrel/EV)+24% (×1.24)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-11% (×0.89)

SP Statcast allowed-7% (×0.93)

Discipline0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+550

High

+3300

Low

+330

Med

+678

Avg

+940

+550

Low +330High +3300

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

11.1

Proj PA

263

HR / PA

.042

ISO

.196

wOBA

.336

wRC+

111

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Home2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

16.5

Hard%

36.5

FB%

37.2

Pull%

37.3

Soft%

15.2

GB%

43.7

vs LHP

HR/FB

11.8

Hard%

23.7

FB%

35.8

Pull%

39.2

Soft%

16.5

GB%

43.2

🐾vs RHP

HR/FB

19.0

Hard%

44.0

FB%

38.0

Pull%

36.1

Soft%

14.5

GB%

44.0

🐾Home

HR/FB

11.9

Hard%

31.5

FB%

37.8

Pull%

36.0

Soft%

16.2

GB%

44.1

Away

HR/FB

20.0

Hard%

40.1

FB%

36.7

Pull%

38.2

Soft%

14.5

GB%

43.3

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs RHP, Home). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

4.0 🐾

STRONG PLAY

Landen Roupp stingy: only 0.49 HR/9
14.9% barrel rate — top-tier loud contact
51.5% hard-hit — punisher
Crushes 1/3 of SP's top pitches (CH)
Historical sweet spot in the order: #1 (80% of career HRs)
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
78% rain — delay/cancel risk
Elite barrel% (14.9)
High barrels/PA (11.2%)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.49 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.306→ vs season .30838 PA · 15d

OPS

.786

ISO

.138

RBI

K-BB

11-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-16	vs SF	1	1	0	0	0	0	1.000
06-14	@ NYM	3	1	0	0	1	0	.333
06-13	@ NYM	4	1	1	1	0	2	1.000
💣 392ft · 106.5 EV · Curveball
06-12	@ NYM	5	1	0	0	0	3	.200
06-10	@ CHW	5	0	0	0	0	3	—
06-09	@ CHW	5	3	0	0	0	0	.600
06-07	vs PIT	1	1	0	3	0	0	2.000
06-05	vs PIT	5	2	0	0	0	2	.400

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs RHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾SISinkervR21PA	—	.367	5.9	70.6	59	9.8
🐾CUCurveballvR14PA	.231	.257	25.0	50.0	50	39.3
🐾CHChangeupvR36PA	.167	.433	18.2	45.5	64	26.2
🐾FCCuttervR13PA	.250	.505	16.7	33.3	67	14.3

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.032	.367	3.4	48.3	55	10.4	122	33
vs RHPTONIGHT	—	.367	5.9	70.6	59	9.8	143	21

CUCurveball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.231	.257	25.0	50.0	50	39.3	143	14

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHPTONIGHT	.167	.433	18.2	45.5	64	26.2	143	36

FCCutter

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	.667	.525	33.3	66.7	50	12.5	122	6
vs RHPTONIGHT	.250	.505	16.7	33.3	67	14.3	143	13

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

100

vs RHB

vs SHB

Truist Park. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches II.

HR by Lineup Spot

🐾 Tonight: Batting #2Projected0 of 15 HRs · 0%

🐾 Hottest from spot #1 — 12 of 15 career HRs (80%).

🐾

Hot spots:#1

Inferred from first-inning batting order, 2024–2025 cached Statcast. 🐾 jade outline = tonight's spot.

Season Statcast

ISO

.208

Barrel %

14.9

Hard Hit %

51.5

Pull % (HRs)

xwOBA

.384

xBA

.308

Brl / PA %

11.20

Max EV (mph)

114.9

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

110.7

Avg EV on HRs

106.0

Avg HR Distance (ft)

395

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

2/8

Crushed (105+ mph)

4/8

Avg LA on HRs

26.1°

Brl / PA %

11.20

Sampled across 8 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Landen Roupp · top 3 pitches tonightvs RHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

🐾 HIGH EXPLOIT

SISinkervs RHP
Use%
37
xwOBA
.367
Whiff%
9.8
HH%
70.6
BRL%
5.9
Pull%
59
CUCurveballvs RHP
Use%
28
xwOBA
.257
Whiff%
39.3
HH%
50.0
BRL%
25.0
Pull%
50
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 14 PA this season.
CHChangeupvs RHP
Use%
19
xwOBA
.433
Whiff%
26.2
HH%
45.5
BRL%
18.2
Pull%
64
🐾 Hitter is crushing this pitch — every meatball is a HR candidate.

Career vs Landen Roupp (RHP)

🐾 Tonight's matchup

—AVG · small sample (1 PA)

OPS

—

RBI

K-BB

1-0

Landen Roupp (RHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
SISinker	36.5	7.7	36.9	58	.355	19.3
CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY	27.6	2.3	16.3	80	.217	29.6
CHChangeup	19.2	0.0	26.2	71	.291	14.3
FCCutter	13.1	4.5	33.3	50	.295	21.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

SISinker37% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.8	35.7	60	.373	25.0	70
vs RHB	10.2	36.7	57	.332	11.6	57

CUCurveball⚡ PUT-AWAY28% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	5.6	33.3	100	.238	33.3	44
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	7.7	65	.202	27.7	54

CHChangeup19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	33.3	78	.304	14.3	52
vs RHB	0.0	0.0	38	.242	12.9	13

FCCutter13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	10.0	40.0	70	.341	29.4	16
vs RHB	0.0	33.3	33	.245	17.6	15

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 29.6% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #5 (xwOBA .490). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (ATL)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Truist Park (335/400/325 ft) · elev 1057ft

8 HRs this season

vs RHP 5vs LHP 3

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

ST🐾Sweeper3

SLSlider2

FF4-Seam Fastball1

FCCutter1

CHChangeup1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 30 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾vs RHP163PA	.226	.542	.886	18.2%	10
vs LHP96PA	.178	.467	.800	9.2%	4

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
🐾Home112PA	.123	.368	.645	11.0%	3
Away147PA	.273	.626	1.014	17.9%	11

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day73PA	.164	.403	.704	13.2%	3
🐾Night186PA	.225	.556	.911	15.7%	11

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty78PA	.200	.493	.814	5
Runners On105PA	.271	.573	.925	6
RISP52PA	.108	.391	.737	0

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs100PA	.253	.621	1.011	7
1 Out84PA	.181	.434	.696	4
2 Outs75PA	.179	.463	.823	3

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs RHP · Home · Night · Thu.