Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Showing tomorrow's slate. Projections and lineups will refine as the slate locks in.

Home Run

8.6%

+1062

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Carlos Rodón (LHP) (0.58 HR/9) · park 117

2+ RBI

8.7%

+1045

RBI 1+

32.3%

+210

Hits 1+

63.7%

-175

Hits 2+

21.5%

+365

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

5.5%

95% CI · 5.3–5.8%

+1701

Fair odds

1st AB

1.3%

Through AB2

2.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
vs SP-6%
Contact-13%
SP Contact-8%
Statcast-10%
SP Statcast-6%

🎯 Early-AB cuesvs Carlos Rodón (LHP)

·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league
·Weak Statcast contact (barrel%/EV below league)

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0182 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)-6% (×0.94) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp0% (×1.00)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-13% (×0.87)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-10% (×0.90)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)-8% (×0.92)

SP Statcast allowed-6% (×0.94)

Discipline-0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+1060

High

+1535

Low

+570

Med

+815

Avg

+866

+1060

Low +570High +1535

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-06-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.5

Proj PA

229

HR / PA

.020

ISO

.125

wOBA

.293

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-06-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

7.1

Hard%

25.0

FB%

32.8

Pull%

56.9

Soft%

14.6

GB%

42.2

🐾vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

25.0

Pull%

46.7

Soft%

26.7

GB%

66.7

vs RHP

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

27.9

FB%

33.6

Pull%

58.1

Soft%

13.2

GB%

39.7

Home

HR/FB

7.7

Hard%

28.0

FB%

37.7

Pull%

56.0

Soft%

13.3

GB%

40.6

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

21.7

FB%

27.1

Pull%

58.0

Soft%

15.9

GB%

44.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (vs LHP, Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

2.0 🐾

DART THROW

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Carlos Rodón stingy: only 0.58 HR/9
Hot streak: .946 OPS over last 15 days
Park boost (117)
Pitcher suppresses HR (0.58 HR/9)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.290↑ vs season .25033 PA · 15d

OPS

.946

ISO

.323

RBI

K-BB

6-2

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-14	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs LAD	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 388ft · 108.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs LAD	3	1	0	2	1	1	1.000
06-10	vs ATL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs ATL	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ PHI	3	2	0	1	1	0	1.333
06-06	@ PHI	4	3	0	1	0	0	1.250
06-05	@ PHI	4	1	0	1	0	0	.250

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB. Metrics are this hitter's vs LHP split.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.194	.347	5.4	28.8	66	24.3
🐾SLSlider22PA	.150	.252	0.0	7.1	87	37.7
🐾SISinkervL11PA	—	.162	0.0	—	75	15.0
🐾CHChangeup20PA	.050	.300	0.0	42.9	80	18.4

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.184	.347	5.6	27.8	65	16.1	140	75

SLSlider

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.264	.276	0.0	15.4	85	30.0	140	21

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHPTONIGHT	—	.162	0.0	0.0	75	15.0	—	11
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.336	9.5	38.1	43	5.1	140	23

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.048	.300	0.0	46.7	80	19.6	140	22

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Peters.

Season Statcast

ISO

.158

Barrel %

4.9

Hard Hit %

27.1

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.302

xBA

.250

Brl / PA %

3.60

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

363

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

27.5°

Brl / PA %

3.60

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Carlos Rodón · top 3 pitches tonightvs LHP split

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Tough matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
44
xwOBA
.347
Whiff%
24.3
HH%
28.8
BRL%
5.4
Pull%
66
SLSlider
Use%
26
xwOBA
.252
Whiff%
37.7
HH%
7.1
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
87
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 22 PA this season.
SISinkervs LHP
Use%
16
xwOBA
.162
Whiff%
15.0
HH%
0.0
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
75
⚠ Struggles against this pitch in 11 PA this season.

Carlos Rodón (LHP) arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	44.0	8.0	52.0	52	.383	18.0
SLSlider	25.8	11.1	33.3	67	.220	21.9
SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.3	0.0	25.0	65	.217	30.0
CHChangeup	12.8	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball44% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	28.6	42.9	71	.480	25.0	12
vs RHB	0.0	55.6	44	.356	16.3	41

SLSlider26% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB🐾 EXPLOIT	12.5	37.5	75	.283	13.0	12
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	10.0	30.0	60	.184	26.8	21

SISinker⚡ PUT-AWAY16% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	0.0	25.0	63	.175	40.0	10
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	0.0	25.0	67	.244	20.0	14

CHChangeup13% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	0.0	18.2	82	.228	17.9	18

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 30.0% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .406). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 27 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP178PA	.175	.488	.863	5.8%	3
🐾vs LHP19PA	—	.118	.236	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home100PA	.155	.433	.776	6.4%	2
🐾Away97PA	.161	.471	.833	3.9%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day88PA	.177	.481	.841	5.7%	2
🐾Night109PA	.143	.429	.775	4.8%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty69PA	.167	.470	.803	1
Runners On89PA	.152	.468	.833	1
RISP48PA	.159	.477	.810	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs61PA	.120	.380	.742	1
1 Out62PA	.091	.364	.708	0
2 Outs74PA	.236	.569	.920	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. vs LHP · Away · Night · Wed.