Big Dawg Bets — MLB HR Board

Home Run

17.5%

+473

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Big Dawg Energy

vs Ryan Weathers (1.82 HR/9) · park 117

Batting #9Confirmed lineup

2+ RBI

13.6%

+635

RBI 1+

36.7%

+172

Hits 1+

64.0%

-178

Hits 2+

21.8%

+358

FG · Blended (3-sys)Monte Carlo

30k iter

8.4%

95% CI · 8.1–8.8%

+1086

Fair odds

1st AB

2.4%

Through AB2

4.7%

Best window

Early

What shifted the projection

Park+17%
Temp+5%
vs SP+16%
Contact-14%
SP Contact+6%
Statcast-11%
SP Statcast+5%

🎯 Early-AB cues

·SP is HR-vulnerable (blended_proj)
·HR-friendly park (factor 117)
·87F game
·Soft contact profile (away) — below league

⚠ Thin blended HR rate

▸Model inputs

Base HR/PA0.0185 · blended_3sys

TTO ramp1.00 → 1.00 → 1.00

Platoon0% (×1.00) · constant

vs SP (HR/9)+16% (×1.16) · blended_proj

Park+17% (×1.17)

Wind0% (×1.00)

Temp+5% (×1.05)

Lineup0% (×1.00)

Contact (batted-ball)-14% (×0.86)

Statcast (barrel/EV)-11% (×0.89)

Pitch match0% (×1.00)

SP Stuff+0% (×1.00)

SP contact (batted-ball)+6% (×1.06)

SP Statcast allowed+5% (×1.05)

Discipline+0% (×1.00)

HR Odds History

Price range · 18 games

Now

+470

High

+4000

Low

+610

Med

+750

Avg

+962

+470

Low +610High +4000

BUILDING HISTORY

No home runs in the tracked window yet — the money zone fills in as he goes yard.

HR Winners — odds that cashed

No priced HR games in the tracked window yet.

🐾 = a game he homered. The shaded band is the price range on those games — his money zone. Tonight's diamond glows when it lands inside it. Prices are model-implied fair odds until a live book line is captured.

▸Projection & contact detail(Monte Carlo model inputs)

Fangraphs Projection (Rest of Season)

2026-07-16 · THE BAT X

Proj HR (RoS)

4.0

Proj PA

183

HR / PA

.022

ISO

.133

wOBA

.295

wRC+

2026 Contact Profile

🐾 Tonight: Away2026-07-16 · FG

Season

HR/FB

8.5

Hard%

27.3

FB%

37.6

Pull%

55.1

Soft%

14.1

GB%

40.2

vs LHP

HR/FB

0.0

Hard%

0.0

FB%

30.0

Pull%

43.5

Soft%

26.1

GB%

60.0

vs RHP

HR/FB

9.2

Hard%

30.8

FB%

38.5

Pull%

56.6

Soft%

12.6

GB%

37.9

Home

HR/FB

10.3

Hard%

29.1

FB%

40.2

Pull%

55.3

Soft%

11.7

GB%

41.2

🐾Away

HR/FB

6.3

Hard%

25.5

FB%

34.8

Pull%

54.9

Soft%

16.7

GB%

39.1

🐾 = split that matches tonight (Away). Jade = better than league average for HR upside (high HR-FB / Hard / Pull / FB; low Soft).

Why this pick

5.0 🐾

ELITE BIG DAWG ENERGY

Yankee Stadium is a hitter's haven (+17 for LHB)
Ryan Weathers is leaky — 1.82 HR/9 allowed
Hot streak: .967 OPS over last 15 days
88°F — ball flies in warm air
20 mph wind — check direction relative to spray
Park boost (117)
Pitcher HR-prone (1.82 HR/9)
Pitcher high contact-quality allowed (11.9% brl)

Tip: cross-reference the matchup math with your sportsbook line — only fire when your model edge clears the juice.

Last 15 Days

🐾 Recent form heading into tonight's matchup

.303↑ vs season .25236 PA · 15d

OPS

.967

ISO

.303

RBI

K-BB

5-3

Game Log · Last 8

Date	Opp	AB	H	HR	RBI	BB	K	SLG
06-17	@ NYY	0	0	0	0	1	0	—
06-16	@ NYY	3	1	0	0	0	0	.333
06-14	vs LAD	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-13	vs LAD	3	1	1	1	0	0	1.333
💣 388ft · 108.5 EV · 4-Seamer
06-12	vs LAD	3	1	0	2	1	1	1.000
06-10	vs ATL	3	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-09	vs ATL	2	0	0	0	0	1	—
06-07	@ PHI	3	2	0	1	1	0	1.333

vs Pitch Type — Tonight's Top 4

🐾 Rows below are tonight's SP's top 4 pitches — every line is a matchup that will appear in this AB.

Pitch	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%
🐾FF4-Seam Fastball73PA	.194	.347	5.4	28.8	66	24.8
🐾CHChangeup20PA	.050	.300	0.0	42.9	80	18.0
🐾SISinker33PA	.103	.294	6.7	25.0	53	12.1
🐾STSweeper	—	—	—	—	—	—

Platoon detail · vs LHP / vs RHP

FF4-Seam Fastball

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.184	.347	5.6	27.8	65	16.7	142	75

CHChangeup

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	no sample
vs RHP	.048	.300	0.0	46.7	80	19.2	142	22

SISinker

Split	ISO	xwOBA	BRL%	HH%	Pull%	Whiff%	wRC+	PA
vs LHP	—	.165	0.0	0.0	78	13.6	—	12
vs RHP🐾 CRUSHES	.143	.352	9.5	38.1	43	5.0	142	24

Ballpark — Tonight's Venue

🐾vs LHB

117

vs RHB

107

vs SHB

112

Yankee Stadium. 100 = league average; higher = HR-friendlier. 🐾 Highlighted side matches Peters.

Season Statcast

ISO

.156

Barrel %

4.8

Hard Hit %

27.4

Pull % (HRs)

100

xwOBA

.305

xBA

.252

Brl / PA %

3.50

Max EV (mph)

108.5

Exit Velocity Profile

Max EV (mph)

101.8

Avg EV on HRs

101.5

Avg HR Distance (ft)

363

HRs in sample

No-doubters (110+ mph)

0/2

Crushed (105+ mph)

0/2

Avg LA on HRs

27.5°

Brl / PA %

3.50

Sampled across 2 home runs. Jade = elite power signal vs. league.

Tonight's Pitch Matchup

Ryan Weathers · top 3 pitches tonight

🐾🐾🐾🐾🐾

Neutral matchup

FF4-Seam Fastball
Use%
29
xwOBA
.347
Whiff%
24.8
HH%
28.8
BRL%
5.4
Pull%
66
CHChangeup
Use%
23
xwOBA
.300
Whiff%
18.0
HH%
42.9
BRL%
0.0
Pull%
80
SISinker
Use%
20
xwOBA
.294
Whiff%
12.1
HH%
25.0
BRL%
6.7
Pull%
53

Ryan Weathers arsenal (Top 3)

Pitch	Use%	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%
FF4-Seam Fastball	28.7	21.9	54.5	56	.431	18.7
CHChangeup	22.7	8.6	33.3	67	.248	24.0
SISinker	19.7	6.5	46.4	48	.380	16.2
STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY	19.3	9.1	17.6	59	.219	31.1

Platoon detail · vs LHB / vs RHB

FF4-Seam Fastball29% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	44.4	77.8	44	.357	45.5	14
vs RHB🐾 EXPLOIT	18.2	50.9	58	.445	14.2	79

CHChangeup23% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	no sample
vs RHB	8.9	33.9	67	.251	22.5	80

SISinker20% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	4.3	43.5	57	.378	27.8	32
vs RHB	7.7	48.7	44	.381	11.5	47

STSweeper⚡ PUT-AWAY19% use

Split	BRL%-A	HH%-A	Pull%	xwOBA	Put%	PA
vs LHB	0.0	30.0	80	.215	22.7	15
vs RHB⚡ PUT-AWAY	16.7	25.0	42	.220	31.6	26

🐾 Jade-ringed cells = top 4 HR-vulnerability flags (above-league BRL%-A, HH%-A, Pull%, xwOBA on this pitch). The pitches getting hammered. ⚡ PUT-AWAY = his go-to out-pitch (highest 2-strike K rate · 31.1% put-away); a 🐾 EXPLOIT tag means even that pitch is getting hit hard. Platoon detail below breaks each pitch into vs-LHB / vs-RHB — the jade-tagged side is the one hitting it hardest (the exploit), and the ⚡ PUT-AWAY tag marks his top out-pitch separately vs each hand.

Strike Zone Heatmap

🐾 Tap a pitch chip to slice by tonight's SP arsenal

Filter heatmap by tonight's SP's top 3 pitches

Heatmap below = season aggregate. Click a pitch chip to filter.

🐾 Hottest zone: #6 (xwOBA .406). Hover any cell for detail.

Catcher's view. Inside square = strike zone (3×3). Outer corners = chase zones. Color = xwOBA on contact — jade = HR damage, red = cold.

Spray Chart (season HRs · tonight's park overlay)

🐾 Park dimensions = tonight's venue (NYY)

Each dot is labeled + colored by the pitch type it was hit off. Hover / tap for distance, EV, LA, hand.

Overlay: Yankee Stadium (318/408/314 ft) · elev 55ft

2 HRs this season

vs RHP 2vs LHP 0

Pitch Color Key · 🐾 = most HRs (exploit)

SISinker1

STSweeper1

Bats L · Pull side: RF

HR Drought — when he's due

HR Drought

games since last HR

PAs since last HR

Homers about every 8.0 games · 23 PA (1 HR in 8 G)

Splits — Today's Matchup

Handedness

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
vs RHP181PA	.173	.488	.868	5.7%	3
vs LHP20PA	—	.111	.222	—	0

Location

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Home100PA	.155	.433	.776	6.4%	2
🐾Away101PA	.156	.467	.834	3.8%	1

Time

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	BRL%	HR
Day88PA	.177	.481	.841	5.7%	2
🐾Night113PA	.139	.426	.777	4.6%	1

Base State

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
Bases Empty71PA	.164	.463	.801	1
Runners On89PA	.152	.468	.833	1
RISP48PA	.159	.477	.810	1

Outs

Split	ISO	SLG	OPS	HR
0 Outs63PA	.116	.385	.752	1
1 Out63PA	.091	.364	.719	0
2 Outs75PA	.233	.562	.909	2

🐾 = the split that matches tonight. Away · Night · Thu.